Purdy and Penix 4 Leg Overs Parlay 49ers at Falcons, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 49.1¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.04x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 45.6%. I shave that to about 42.0%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 6: 20 of 20 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Both quarterbacks and the back. Purdy’s yards, Penix’s yards and a Penix touchdown pass, with Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards. At the asks the four pay 2.04x.
• Purdy into a generous pass defense. Atlanta allows 252.0 passing yards a game, 5th most, and Purdy’s lowest game is 189. Kalshi has him near 84%.
• Penix has thrown for 223 or more in every start. Even the Week 5 loss to Baltimore, which he left with a rib injury, ended at 240. He is not on this week’s injury report.
• Two legs on Penix. His yards and his touchdown pass go together: a big Penix day helps both, and a quiet one costs both.
• Bijan against a strong run defense. San Francisco allows 90.2 rushing yards a game, 7th fewest. “We’ve got to find a way to start fast so that we can keep Bijan in the game,” Penix said after the Chicago loss.

Where it can break

Penix’s touchdown is the cheapest leg. At an 81¢ ask, and three of his four starts had exactly one touchdown pass. One stalled trip inside the 20 can cost it.

A 49ers lead. If San Francisco gets ahead early, the way Chicago did, Bijan’s carries thin out; he had nine in that game. Good for Penix’s yards, bad for the run leg.

San Francisco’s receivers. With Evans and Samuel out and Christian Kirk questionable, Purdy throws to a reshuffled room on a short week after Monday night.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT. If Purdy, Penix or Bijan Robinson is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Falcons were 41¢ to sell and 42¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had San Francisco a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5 on Thursday. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.