Rodgers and Warren 4 Leg Paris Overs Parlay Steelers vs Saints, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 47.3¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.11x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 45.1%. I shave that to about 41.5%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 6: 24 of 24 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Three Steelers and one Saint. Rodgers’s yards, Warren’s carries and Freiermuth’s catches all lean on the Pittsburgh offense against a New Orleans defense that gives up 239.7 passing yards and 138.0 rushing yards a game. Vele is the one Saints leg. At the asks the four pay 2.11x.
• Rodgers has room. His lowest game, 187, is 12 yards over his number, and he has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three of his six games. The Saints allow the 8th most passing yards in the league.
• Warren against a leaky run defense. He ran for 93, 101 and 50 in Weeks 4 to 6. His lowest, 43, came on 11 carries in Week 2, a 20-3 loss at New England.
• Vele is the steady Saints receiver. Chris Olave has caught four passes in each of the last two games and Juwan Johnson was shut out at the Giants. Vele has caught three or more every week and never dipped below 26 yards. At 86%, his is the highest market chance on the ticket.

Where it can break

Warren is the cheapest leg. At a 79¢ ask, and his 46 and 43 in Weeks 1 and 2 came on 10 and 11 carries, six and three yards over. A Saints lead that takes the run game away could cost it.

Rain and wind in Saint-Denis. AccuWeather’s Thursday forecast called for morning rain, a 64% chance, and a west-northwest wind near 14 mph at an open-air stadium. A wet, windy day is the main threat to Rodgers’s 175 and to both receiving legs.

Freiermuth’s share. At Tampa Bay he saw three targets while Metcalf and Bernard saw 27 between them, and he made 11 yards, one over his number.

A late flight. The Steelers left for France after Thursday’s practice, while the Saints went over early. Three of the four legs are Pittsburgh players.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 5:00 AM PT. If Rodgers, Warren, Freiermuth or Vele is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Saints were 39¢ to sell and 40¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Pittsburgh a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5 on Thursday. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.