Maye and Williams 5 Leg TNF Overs Parlay Patriots at Bears, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 46.8¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.14x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 41.6%. I shave that to about 38.3%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs: the most likely lines that pass every rule I trade by, each one checked against the defense it faces, until the ticket pays at least 2x.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 6: 26 of 27 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player props only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market. My model finds four that sit together under every rule: Maye’s yards, Odunze’s catches and yards and Swift’s rushing yards. At the asks those four pay 1.90x, under my 2x floor, so a quarterback’s touchdown pass makes the fifth. At the asks the five pay 2.14x.
• Williams over Maye for the touchdown. Both quarterbacks have a 1+ touchdown pass market at 75% or more. Williams’ is the higher of the two, and Maye already carries a leg; two legs on one quarterback ride on one night.
• A catches leg comes with his lowest yards line. Odunze 2+ catches sits with Odunze 15+ yards, the lowest rung Kalshi has for him. His lowest game is 39 yards, so 15 leaves room.
• What stayed off. Luther Burden III’s 3+ catches had no yards line low enough to pair with it. Williams’ passing yards stayed off for a 138 yard game, and Maye 200+ stayed off for his 178 and 199. Nothing on New England’s run game: Chicago allows 90.5 rushing yards a game, 8th fewest.
• No running back catches or carries. Swift is on for rushing yards only. A back’s touches and catches swing with the script, so they stay off my tickets.

Where it can break

New England’s line against Kyler Gordon. Three Patriots linemen left Sunday’s game hurt and two guards are on injured reserve. Gordon had three sacks and two forced fumbles in his first game. A long night for Maye costs his 175.

Swift is the cheapest leg. At a 78¢ ask, and his 43 and 44 in two of the last three games cleared 40 by three and four yards. A game where Chicago leads early and leans on the pass could take it.

Williams’ touchdown sample is three games. One of them, a 9-3 loss to Minnesota, had none. Chicago’s red zone work has gone through Swift too: he scored twice on Sunday.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 3:45 PM PT. If Maye, Williams, Odunze or Swift is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

Chicago was 59¢ to sell and 60¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Chicago a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5 on Monday. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.