NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
Two 2-2 teams meet going opposite directions. The Colts have won two straight behind Jonathan Taylor, who has 353 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but they are flying home from London with 8 giveaways and 1 takeaway. The Steelers have had ten days to stew on a 56-yard field goal that beat them in Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is short two starting corners. The posted line is PIT -2.5 with a total of 44.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh
On TV
CBS
check your market
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Indianapolis Colts are 2-2. Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2. The posted line has Pittsburgh Steelers favoured by 2.5, with a total of 44.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh.
The storyline. Two 2-2 teams meet going opposite directions. The Colts have won two straight behind Jonathan Taylor, who has 353 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but they are flying home from London with 8 giveaways and 1 takeaway. The Steelers have had ten days to stew on a 56-yard field goal that beat them in Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is short two starting corners.
Indianapolis started 0-2, losing 41-23 at Baltimore and 33-30 in overtime at Kansas City. Then Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal with 1:48 left beat Houston 19-17, the Colts’ first win in 321 days, and Jonathan Taylor ran for two touchdowns in a 30-13 win over Washington in London. Pittsburgh went the other way on Thursday, October 1: Aaron Rodgers tied the Browns 24-24 with a touchdown pass and a sneak on the two-point try with 1:42 left, and Andre Szmyt kicked a 56-yarder with 10 seconds to go to win it 27-24 for Cleveland. (Colts.com · AP via ABC News · Steelers.com · PFR Colts)
The Steelers haven’t played since that Thursday night, so they get ten days between games under Mike McCarthy. The Colts kicked off at 9:30 AM ET in London on Sunday and now play on the road again. SI’s Iain MacMillan made it the center of his read: “They’re coming off an international game and now have to play on the road against a team that’s coming off a mini-bye.” Pittsburgh is 2-0 at Acrisure Stadium this year, beating Atlanta 20-13 and Cincinnati 30-27. (SI Betting · PFR Steelers · theScore)
Taylor has 353 rushing yards on 86 carries and six touchdowns through four games, and his two in London gave him the record for international rushing touchdowns with five. Pittsburgh has allowed 451 rushing yards, 17th in the league per Pro-Football-Reference. The last time these teams met, on November 2, 2025, Taylor came in as the league’s leading rusher and the Steelers held him to 45 yards on 14 carries. (PFR Colts · Colts.com · PFR Steelers · CBS Sports)
This is the number that jumps off the page. Indianapolis has 8 giveaways and 1 takeaway in four games; Pittsburgh has 9 takeaways (4 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries) and 6 giveaways. The Colts have also been outgained 1,569 yards to 1,137, and SI has them last in the league in net yards per play at -1.7. Daniel Jones has 4 interceptions to go with his 3 touchdown passes. (PFR Colts · PFR Steelers · SI Betting)
After 187 yards in the 20-3 loss at New England, Rodgers threw for 292 against Cincinnati and 299 at Cleveland, where he went 22 of 40 with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is 88 of 153 for 999 yards, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the year. DK Metcalf had 5 catches for 115 yards on Thursday after three quiet weeks. The Colts’ pass rush lost Arden Key (hamstring) in London, and DeForest Buckner leads them with 3 sacks. (Steelers.com · PFR Steelers · Athlon · RotoWire)
Pittsburgh traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas, and Jamel Dean re-aggravated his ankle at Cleveland after 16 snaps; he is listed doubtful. Steelers Now expects Asante Samuel Jr. and rookie Daylen Everette to start outside, and the team signed Sean Murphy-Bunting off Tampa Bay’s practice squad. Up front, Derrick Harmon went on injured reserve with a foot injury, and McCarthy said: “He’ll be out for a number of weeks.” Harmon’s strip-sack sealed the Week 3 win over Cincinnati. (Steelers Now · ProFootballTalk · Yahoo Sports)
Alec Pierce, who led the league in yards per catch the last two seasons, went on injured reserve with a heel injury after Week 2. Keenan Allen (groin) missed the London game and is questionable again, though the Colts listed him as a starter on their unofficial depth chart Tuesday. Josh Downs leads the team with 202 receiving yards, and Tyler Warren, a Pro Bowl tight end as a rookie last year, has 23 catches. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann limped off in London with a lower-leg injury and is still listed as the starter. (Colts.com · Steelers.com · Colts.com depth chart · The Fantasy Footballers · Heavy)
The Steelers lead the all-time series 28-8, playoffs included. Last year’s 27-20 win in Pittsburgh came against a 7-2 Colts team: Jones threw for 342 yards but also threw three interceptions and lost two fumbles, and the Steelers forced six turnovers in all. Indianapolis last won the matchup 27-24 in Week 4 of 2024. Per SI, the Steelers are 7-3 against the spread and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. (Steelers.com · CBS Sports · Athlon · SI Betting)
Neither quarterback is on the report: Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers both start. Statuses from ESPN’s injury feed, read Wednesday, October 7, 2026; official game designations come Friday.
| Player | Status | Injury | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen (IND, WR) | Questionable | Groin | Missed London; listed as a starter on the Oct 6 depth chart. If he sits, Downs, Warren and Laquon Treadwell take his targets. |
| Alec Pierce (IND, WR) | Injured reserve | Heel | Out since Week 2. Removes the Colts’ deep threat. |
| Arden Key (IND, DE) | Out | Hamstring | Steichen said he’ll miss some time; JT Tuimoloau and Caden Curry should play more. |
| Jaylon Carlies (IND, LB) | Questionable | Undisclosed | Had his first career interception in London. |
| Micheal Clemons (IND, DE) | Injured reserve | Toe | Another pass rusher gone. |
| Ashton Dulin (IND, WR) | Monitored | Hamstring | Per Steichen on Oct 6; not on ESPN’s list when we checked. |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT, RB) | Questionable | Toe | In the rehab group Wednesday. Jaylen Warren keeps the load if he sits. |
| Jamel Dean (PIT, CB) | Doubtful | Ankle | Asante Samuel Jr. and Daylen Everette expected outside. |
| Derrick Harmon (PIT, DT) | Injured reserve | Foot | Earliest return is Week 10 on Nov 15. |
| Gennings Dunker (PIT, G) | Injured reserve | Knee | Out until late October at the earliest. |
For props, three things matter. Dowdle has carried 15 times all season to Warren’s 55, so Warren’s rushing lines are priced as the lead back either way. With Pierce out and Allen uncertain, the Colts’ targets have been funneling to Downs and Warren, and Pittsburgh is starting backup corners against them. And with Key and Clemons out, the Colts are lighter on the outside rush against Rodgers. (Colts.com depth chart · RotoWire · CBS Sports · Steelers Depot · Steelers Now · Yahoo Sports · Colts.com)
Weeks 1 to 4 lines from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026. Names link to each player’s ESPN page.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a pick. (PFR Steelers · PFR Colts · SI Betting · CBS Sports · Steelers Now · ProFootballTalk)
| Going in | IND Indianapolis ColtsIND | PIT Pittsburgh SteelersPIT |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +2.5 | −2.5 |
| Implied points computed | 21 | 23.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Pittsburgh Steelers favoured by 2.5, with a total of 44.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts are 2-2 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 2.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 and favoured by 2.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5-point home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts at DraftKings, with the moneyline at Steelers -135 and Colts +114 and the total at 44.5, per SI Betting on October 6, 2026. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, the Steelers contract was 57 cents bid and 58 ask, about a 58% chance of a Pittsburgh win.
The Indianapolis Colts play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The Week 5 game airs on CBS in the United States.
As of October 7, 2026, Colts WR Keenan Allen (groin) and LB Jaylon Carlies are questionable, DE Arden Key (hamstring) is out, and WR Alec Pierce (heel) is on injured reserve. For Pittsburgh, RB Rico Dowdle (toe) is questionable, CB Jamel Dean (ankle) is doubtful and DT Derrick Harmon (foot) is on injured reserve.
Both teams are 2-2. The Colts have won two straight, 19-17 over Houston and 30-13 over Washington in London. The Steelers lost 27-24 at Cleveland on Thursday, October 1, on a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. Pittsburgh won the last meeting 27-20 on November 2, 2025.
Jonathan Taylor has 353 rushing yards on 86 carries through four games in 2026, with 98, 92, 68 and 95 yards by week and six touchdowns. On October 7, 2026, Kalshi priced his 90-plus rushing yards against Pittsburgh at 46 cents bid, 47 ask, roughly a coin flip.
Aaron Rodgers has 999 passing yards in four games, about 250 a game, going 221, 187, 292 and 299. He threw 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions at Cleveland. Kalshi priced Rodgers at 225-plus passing yards against the Colts at 48 cents bid, 51 ask on October 7, 2026.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Indianapolis Colts at about 21 points and Pittsburgh Steelers at about 23.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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