NFL Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:25 PM PT
The Raiders started 3-0, then lost to Kansas City and 45-17 at New England, where No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza made his debut. Buffalo is 3-1 and plays the Rams on Monday night before flying to Las Vegas. Kirk Cousins remains the Raiders’ starter. The posted line is BUF -6 with a total of 52.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
1:25 PM PT
4:25 PM ET, Sun, Oct 18
Stadium
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
On TV
CBS
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Buffalo Bills are 3-1. Las Vegas Raiders are 3-2. The posted line has Buffalo Bills favoured by 6, with a total of 52.5. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.
The storyline. The Raiders started 3-0, then lost to Kansas City and 45-17 at New England, where No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza made his debut. Buffalo is 3-1 and plays the Rams on Monday night before flying to Las Vegas. Kirk Cousins remains the Raiders’ starter.
Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, made his regular-season debut late in the Raiders’ 45-17 loss at New England on October 11 and completed 6 of 8 passes for 48 yards. Klint Kubiak said the quarterback plan is unchanged and Kirk Cousins remains the starter. Mendoza blamed himself for a fourth-down scramble that came up short: “That is totally my fault.” ESPN on Mendoza’s debut · AP recap via ESPN
Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13, won 26-14 at the Chargers and 35-27 at New Orleans, then lost 30-27 to Kansas City and 45-17 at New England. Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and accounted for five touchdowns, and the Patriots piled up 536 yards. The Raiders’ three wins already match their 2025 total, when they went 3-14 under Pete Carroll. ESPN game page · AP recap via ESPN · Pro-Football-Reference 2025
Cousins has 1,269 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Bowers missed the first two games and has 24 catches for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns since, including 8 for 110 and a score at New England. Cousins’ seven-game winning streak as a starter ended against Kansas City, when he threw for 365 yards. ESPN game page · AP recap via ESPN · AP via KCTV5
The Raiders run for 82.0 yards a game and managed 38 at New England. Ashton Jeanty has 291 yards on 88 carries, and he was limited in practice with ankle and foot issues the week of the Patriots game. “We were more efficient running the football, and that’s something we got to get back to,” Kubiak said. Buffalo runs for 139.0 yards a game; Las Vegas allows 140.6. ESPN game page · ESPN on Mendoza’s debut · ESPN on the Raiders’ run game
The Bills are 3-1 and play the Rams at SoFi Stadium on Monday night before coming to Las Vegas. They won 36-31 at Houston and beat Detroit 41-31 and the Chargers 24-16, then lost 29-26 to New England. Buffalo scores 31.8 points a game and allows 26.8. ESPN game page
For Monday night, Buffalo ruled out defensive tackle Ed Oliver (knee) and receiver Joshua Palmer (shoulder), and listed DJ Moore (shoulder) and nickel back Dee Alford (ankle) as questionable. Rookie receiver Skyler Bell was set for his NFL debut with Palmer out. ESPN’s injury page lists Oliver with an October 18 return date. ESPN Bills injury report · ESPN game page
The Bills beat the Raiders 38-10 in Orchard Park on September 17, 2023. The teams did not meet in 2024 or 2025. Pro-Football-Reference 2023
DraftKings had the Bills by 6 with a total of 52.5, the Bills at -285 and the Raiders at +230, as read on ESPN on October 12. Lines move through the week; the live Kalshi price is on this page. ESPN odds (DraftKings)
Statuses are from ESPN’s NFL injury page, read Friday, October 16, at 10:45 AM PT, with the practice notes it carries. Teams set final game statuses on Friday afternoon and inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, so a Questionable here can still move.
| Player | Team, pos | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | BUF, WR | Questionable | Shoulder. Did not practice Thursday. |
| Joshua Palmer | BUF, WR | Questionable | Shoulder. Limited Thursday. |
| Ty Johnson | BUF, RB | Questionable | Hamstring. Limited Thursday. |
| Ed Oliver | BUF, DT | Questionable | Knee. Did not take part Wednesday. |
| Jalen Nailor | LV, WR | Questionable | Concussion. Limited Thursday. |
| Tonka Hemingway | LV, DT | Questionable | In concussion protocol. |
Weekly lines are from ESPN box scores, read October 12, 2026. Names link to ESPN player pages.
Weeks 1-4: 20/29, 334 yds · 20/31, 248 · 16/26, 204 · 23/33, 253. Runs: 6-23, 14-69, 8-22, 5-4. Week 5 is Monday night at the Rams.
1,039 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus 118 rushing yards on 33 carries.
Weeks 1-4 rushing: 13-57, 21-135, 24-154, 12-75. Week 5 is Monday night.
421 yards on 70 carries, 6.0 a carry, with 3 touchdowns. The Raiders allow 140.6 rushing yards a game.
Weeks 1-4: 1-1, 6-63, 1-37, 6-116 on 16 targets. Week 5 is Monday night.
14 catches for 217 yards. With Palmer out and Moore questionable for Monday, ESPN said Allen may need him as an outside option.
Weeks 1-4: 5-130, 7-95, 2-38, 1-7 on 19 targets. Week 5 is Monday night.
15 catches for 270 yards, the Bills’ receiving lead, with 225 of those yards in the first two games.
Weeks 1-5: 21/30, 160 yds · 19/29, 253 · 22/33, 248 · 31/52, 365 · 19/28, 243.
1,269 yards, 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His 365 yards against Kansas City came on 52 attempts.
Weeks 1-5 rushing: 23-102, 21-48, 19-56, 15-58, 10-27. Receiving: 6-45, 4-15, 3-37, 6-68, 3-50.
291 yards on 88 carries, 3.3 a carry, and 22 catches for 215 yards. He opened with 102 against Miami and has not reached 60 since.
Weeks 3-5: 10-116 on 14 targets, 6-86 on 11, 8-110 on 10. Did not play Weeks 1 and 2.
24 catches for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns in three games. He scored against Kansas City while playing through an illness, and again at New England.
Weeks 1-5: 2-27, 5-119, 4-43, 4-44, 4-41 on 28 targets.
19 catches for 274 yards. His 119-yard game came at the Chargers in Week 2, and he caught Mendoza’s 16-yard comeback at New England.
Buffalo scores 31.8 points a game, Cook averages 6.0 a carry, and the Raiders allow 140.6 rushing yards a game. Las Vegas has lost two straight and gave up 536 yards at New England.
Cousins has 12 touchdown passes and Bowers 312 yards in three games. Buffalo allows 26.8 points a game, is short on its defensive line and in the secondary, and plays a Monday night game in Los Angeles first.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a pick. ESPN game page · AP recap via ESPN · ESPN Bills injury report · ESPN on Mendoza’s debut · ESPN scoreboard (DraftKings)
| Going in | BUF Buffalo BillsBUF | LV Las Vegas RaidersLV |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −6 | +6 |
| Implied points computed | 29.25 | 23.25 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-12.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Buffalo Bills favoured by 6 on the road, with a total of 52.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders are 3-2 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 6. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills are 3-1 and favoured by 6. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Buffalo Bills are 6-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders at DraftKings, with the Bills at -285, the Raiders at +230 and a total of 52.5, as read October 12, 2026. Lines move through the week.
The Bills play the Raiders on Sunday, October 18, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The game is on CBS.
Nothing says so yet. Mendoza played late in the 45-17 loss at New England and went 6 of 8 for 48 yards, but Klint Kubiak said the quarterback plan is unchanged and Kirk Cousins remains the starter.
Oliver was ruled out for Monday night at the Rams with a knee injury. ESPN lists an October 18 return date, so his status for Las Vegas will come from the Bills’ reports later in the week.
Buffalo beat Las Vegas 38-10 in Orchard Park on September 17, 2023. The teams did not meet in 2024 or 2025.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Buffalo Bills at about 29.25 points and Las Vegas Raiders at about 23.25. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-12. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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