Goff and Murray 4 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Vikings at Lions, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 49.7¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.01x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 44.3%. I shave that to about 40.7%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 20 of 21 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, two on Minnesota and two on Detroit. At the asks the four pay 2.01x.
• Both quarterbacks. Murray 150+ against the defense that allows the most passing yards in the league, and Goff 200+ against the one that allows the 2nd fewest. Goff has reached 200 in every game, and Murray 150 in every start.
• One receiver from each side. Williams 25+ and Addison 15+, each riding on his own quarterback’s afternoon.
• What changed Friday. I re-picked this ticket after the official game designations and a fresh Kalshi read. Goff’s touchdown pass and Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing yards came off, and Addison came on. Amon-Ra St. Brown carries no game designation for Sunday, but he is not a leg.

Where it can break

Minnesota’s pass defense. It allows 155.0 passing yards a game, 2nd fewest. Goff’s yards and Williams’ yards both run into it.

Murray right on the line. He threw for exactly 150 on Sunday, on 14 of 24. One more day like it and that leg comes down to a single play.

Addison’s low games. 0 in Week 1 and 20 on Sunday on three targets. A quiet afternoon and his leg misses.

A thin price. The market’s chances for the four legs multiply to 44.3%, under the 49.7% the asks need. At these asks the ticket pays less than the market says the risk is worth.

Late changes. I priced this on Friday afternoon, after the official game designations: no Minnesota or Detroit quarterback, running back, receiver or tight end carries one. Inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Lions were 62¢ to sell and 63¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket Friday afternoon. Earlier in the week DraftKings had Detroit a 3-point favorite with a total of 46.5, per ESPN on Wednesday morning. Minnesota comes in 6-0 and Detroit 4-2. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.