Wilson and Cooper 5 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Raiders at Jets, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 49.2¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.03x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 42.5%. I shave that to about 39.1%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 29 of 31 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, four on the Jets and one on Las Vegas. At the asks the five pay 2.03x.
• Wilson twice. His catches and his yards, both riding on one receiver’s afternoon.
• Cousins’ touchdown pass. The only Raiders leg. He has thrown at least one in every game.
• What stayed off. Brock Bowers, limited in practice with a calf injury and with no Kalshi market at the read. Tre Tucker’s catches and yards were the next legs in line.

Where it can break

Wilson’s quiet Sunday. Two catches on three targets against Miami. One more day like it and the catches leg misses.

A short record on Cooper. Three games, two of them over 100 yards. Three games is a thin sample.

Smith’s low game. 119 yards in Week 4 on 15 attempts. A short afternoon sinks that leg.

Late changes. I priced this on Thursday afternoon, after two days of practice reports. Game designations come Friday, and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Jets were 52¢ to sell and 53¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had New York a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5, per ESPN on Thursday afternoon. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.