Rodgers and Boston 4 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Browns at Steelers, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 47.9¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.09x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 44.0%. I shave that to about 40.5%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 27 of 28 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, three on Pittsburgh and one on Cleveland. At the asks the four pay 2.09x.
• The Steelers’ floor. Rodgers has never thrown for fewer than 187 yards, Warren has never run for fewer than 43, and Freiermuth’s low is 11.
• Boston for Cleveland. The only Browns leg, a receiver over 20 yards in six of seven games.
• A rematch. Cleveland won the Week 4 meeting 27-24, and all four of these players went over these lines in that game.
• What stayed off. Ben Skowronek, questionable on Friday’s report. Cleveland has no skill player designated.

Where it can break

Freiermuth’s margin. 11 yards in Week 6 and 17 against Cleveland in Week 4. One short afternoon and that leg misses.

Cleveland’s pass defense. It allows 201.7 passing yards a game, 7th fewest. Rodgers’ and Freiermuth’s legs both run into it.

A low total. DraftKings had the total at 39.5, per ESPN on Tuesday. A slow, low-scoring game squeezes every leg.

A thin price. The market’s own chances for all four multiply to 44.0%, under the 47.9% the asks need. At these prices the ticket costs more than the market says it is worth.

Late changes. I priced this on Friday afternoon, after the official game designations. Inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Steelers were 64¢ to sell and 65¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Pittsburgh a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5, per ESPN on Tuesday. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.