Burrow and Higgins 5 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Titans at Bengals, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 49.6¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.02x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 43.6%. I shave that to about 40.1%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 27 of 31 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, four on Cincinnati and one on Tennessee. At the asks the five pay 2.02x.
• Burrow twice. His yards and a touchdown pass. He has thrown at least one in every game, and his yards fell short once, in Week 5.
• Both run games. Chase Brown against a defense that allows the 7th most rushing yards, and Tony Pollard, over 40 in six of seven games.
• Not on it. Ja’Marr Chase, listed questionable with an ankle injury in ESPN’s feed, and Carnell Tate, who did not practice Thursday. Cam Ward’s passing yards were the next leg in line.

Where it can break

Chase’s ankle. ESPN’s injury feed lists him questionable; he was in uniform for Thursday’s practice. He is not a leg, but Burrow’s and Higgins’ legs change shape if he sits.

Four legs with a miss. Burrow’s yards, Higgins’ yards, Brown’s rushing and Pollard’s rushing each fell short once this season. This ticket needs all five.

Game script. Cincinnati is an 11.5-point favorite. A big lead can mean fewer late throws for Burrow, and a big deficit fewer carries for Pollard.

Late changes. I priced this on Thursday afternoon, after two days of practice reports. Game designations come Friday, and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Bengals were 83¢ to sell and 84¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Cincinnati an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5, per ESPN on Thursday afternoon. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.