Flournoy and Williams 5 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Cardinals at Cowboys, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 49.2¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.03x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 39.2%. I shave that to about 36.1%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 31 of 33 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, four on Dallas and one on Arizona. At the asks the five pay 2.03x.
• Flournoy twice. His catches and his yards. He has never had fewer than two catches or 22 yards, and both legs ride on one receiver’s afternoon.
• The Dallas offense. Prescott’s yards and Williams’ rushing, coming off a 38-21 win in Philadelphia in which the Cowboys ran for 204 yards.
• Love into the soft spot. The only Arizona leg runs at a defense that allows 145.7 rushing yards a game, 2nd most in the league.
• What stayed off. George Pickens, questionable on Friday’s report, and KaVontae Turpin, ruled out. Tip Reiman is out for Arizona.

Where it can break

Love’s two missed games. He did not play in Weeks 6 or 7. Friday’s report gives him no designation, but how much he carries the ball in his first game back is the open question.

Flournoy’s catches. Exactly two in Weeks 1 and 3. One quiet afternoon and that leg misses, and his yards leg can go with it.

Prescott’s low game. 175 yards in Week 1, and 212 on 27 attempts in Week 7. A Dallas lead that leans on the run can keep him near the line.

A thin price. The market’s own chances for all five multiply to 39.2%, under the 49.2% the asks need. At these prices the ticket costs more than the market says it is worth.

Late changes. I priced this on Friday afternoon, after the official game designations. Inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Cowboys were 74¢ to sell and 75¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Dallas a 7-point favorite with a total of 54.5, per ESPN on Thursday afternoon. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.