Lina-Flame

The rule

Read the home team's Kalshi ask. At 50¢ or below, no pick. Between 50¢ and 80¢, buy the home team to win. Above 80¢ the win market pays too little to be worth the risk, so switch to the margin ladder and buy the ‘home team wins by over N points’ contract priced closest to 70¢ — only if it sits between 60¢ and 80¢ and has traded at least 100 contracts. If no rung qualifies, no pick. Every pick is recorded at least 30 minutes before tip-off.

Why this rule

Tests whether home-court advantage is already fully priced into a WNBA contract. The margin switch exists because of the arithmetic: a home side at 93¢ risks 93¢ to win 7¢, while the same team to win by over 9.5 points goes at 73¢ and pays 27¢. Same opinion, four times the payoff, in exchange for needing a real win rather than any win. The liquidity floor is there because a quoted price nobody has traded is not a price.

How a pick gets recorded

• A scheduled job reads Kalshi's public board and applies the rule above.
• The pick is written to data/agent-picks.json and committed. The commit timestamp is the proof it existed before tip-off.
• The bid and ask the agent saw are stored with the pick, so the entry price can be checked.
• Nothing is edited afterwards. Settlement adds the result and the net; the pick itself never changes.
• If the matchup cannot be read from Kalshi's own rules text, the game is skipped rather than guessed.