UFC 331 · Pre-fight pick · Lightweight co-main, five rounds
Why we're on Ruffy against Tsarukyan at UFC 331
Arman Tsarukyan is a 76¢ favorite (−325 at DraftKings), and he has earned it. We still think the price on Mauricio Ruffy is too long. Ruffy is the more active fighter, finishes people, and walks in off a first-round stoppage. Tsarukyan has one MMA fight since April 2024 and lost a wrestling match in July.
ExclusiveTuna Lead writer, UFC/MMA · PM Countdown desk pen name
The pick
Open · not gradedRuffy to win · optional cash-out at 40¢
- Kalshi YES Ruffy
- 28¢ ask at 5:38 PM PT · ≈ +257
- DraftKings, Sep 19
- 28¢ book price +260
- Optional sell order
- 40¢ resting order · ≈ +150
Graded on the result: a Ruffy win is a win, a Tsarukyan win is a loss. Whether the 40¢ order would have filled is recorded separately from Kalshi's trade history.
The fight
Tsarukyan vs Ruffy is the co-main event of UFC 331 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Saturday, September 19: a five-round lightweight bout with no title on the line. It was first booked as Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt, and Ruffy took the spot when Oliveira withdrew.1,4
The case for Ruffy
He's coming off the biggest win of his career
Ruffy stopped Michael Chandler in round one at UFC Freedom 250 on the White House South Lawn on June 14, 2026: a spinning wheel kick, then punches, at 4:29.1,2,3 Before that he stopped Rafael Fiziev in round two at UFC 325 in February.1 Two straight stoppages of established UFC lightweights say his power carries against good opposition.
He's active, and Tsarukyan isn't
Ruffy has fought twice this year. Tsarukyan hasn't fought in MMA since he submitted Dan Hooker in November 2025, about ten months ago, and that's his only MMA fight since he beat Oliveira at UFC 300 in April 2024. He also pulled out of UFC 311 in January 2025 with a back injury.4 He did compete in July, but in a freestyle wrestling match, not a fight.5 Cage time over a five-round fight is the one thing wrestling can't replace.
Tsarukyan's last outing was a loss
On July 18, Tsarukyan lost 5-3 to Colby Covington at RAF 11, a freestyle wrestling match for RAF's inaugural Crossover Cruiserweight title.5,6,7 It wasn't MMA, and his MMA record stays 23-3. But Covington, the bigger man and a former NCAA All-American who is 4-0 in RAF matches this year, this one included, beat him at the skill Tsarukyan's game is built on.5,8 Whether that loss affects his confidence is our read, not a fact. We'd note it, not bet on it alone.
Ruffy only needs one moment
At 28¢ (+260) Ruffy doesn't have to win the fight on the cards. BetMGM prices his knockout at 22¢ (+350) and his decision at 8¢ (+1200), so the market already agrees his path is a finish.13 An underdog with real finishing power, facing a favorite coming off inactivity, is the profile we want at this price.
What could go wrong
Tsarukyan is the favorite for real reasons. This is the list we'd read before betting against him.
- He's elite, and the record says so. 23-3 in MMA, with wins over Oliveira (split decision), Dan Hooker (arm-triangle, round two) and Beneil Dariush (KO in 64 seconds).4
- His grappling is Ruffy's hardest question. BetMGM's likeliest single outcome is Tsarukyan by submission at 62¢ (−165).13 Ruffy's last loss was a round-two face crank against Benoit Saint Denis in September 2025.1
- Five rounds favor the better wrestler. Every round Ruffy spends on his back costs him the minutes his case depends on.
- The market is not asleep. DraftKings, BetMGM, Kalshi and Polymarket all priced Tsarukyan between 73¢ and 76¢ on fight day (73% to 76% implied).11,12,14,15 We think that's a few points too high, not that it's wrong about who's more likely to win.
- The 40¢ order may never fill. See the cash-out section: it needs a big in-fight swing and a market that keeps trading.
Tale of the tape
| Before the fight | Mauricio Ruffy | Arman Tsarukyan |
|---|---|---|
| MMA record | 14-2 | 23-3 |
| Age on fight night | 30 born Jun 17, 1996 | 29 born Oct 11, 1996 |
| Last 3 (newest first) | WWL | WWW |
| Last fight | W · Michael Chandler · TKO R1 4:29 Jun 14, 2026 · UFC Freedom 250 | W · Dan Hooker · Sub (arm-triangle) R2 3:34 Nov 22, 2025 |
| Before that | W · Rafael Fiziev · TKO R2 4:30 Feb 1, 2026 · UFC 325 | W · Charles Oliveira · Split decision Apr 13, 2024 · UFC 300 |
| And before that | L · Benoit Saint Denis · Sub (face crank) R2 2:56 Sep 6, 2025 | W · Beneil Dariush · KO R1 1:04 Dec 2, 2023 |
| MMA fights in 2026 | 2 | 0 plus RAF 11 wrestling, Jul 18 (L 3-5) |
Records, dates and results: Wikipedia, checked Sep 19, 2026.1,4,5 Wikipedia still listed Ruffy as 29; he turned 30 in June. The Fiziev date is Wikipedia's (Jan 31 local time in Sydney).
Odds at open and now
| Line | Ruffy | Tsarukyan | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line BetOnline, via Forbes9,10 | 26¢ +280 | 78¢ −350 | Sep 1 |
| Early move BetOnline10 | 25¢ +303 | 79¢ −380 | Early Sep |
| DraftKings12 | 28¢ +260 | 76¢ −325 | Sep 19 |
| BetMGM11 | 28¢ +260 | 76¢ −325 | Sep 19 |
| Kalshi YES, bid / ask already a contract price15 | 27¢ / 28¢ ask ≈ +257 | 72¢ / 73¢ ask ≈ −270 | Sep 19, 5:38 PM PT |
| Our optional sell order | 40¢ ≈ +150 | n/a | Plan |
Contract price is the book's odds as the price of a contract that pays $1, rounded to the cent: +260 is 100 ÷ 360 = 0.278, so 28¢; −325 is 325 ÷ 425 = 0.765, so 76¢. The book's margin is left in, which is why the two sides add up to more than $1 (28¢ + 76¢ = 104¢). Switch to American odds to see the moneylines as the books posted them. Kalshi prices are already contracts; as a moneyline, a price p under 50¢ is +(1 − p) ÷ p × 100 (28¢: 0.72 ÷ 0.28 = +257) and a price over 50¢ is −p ÷ (1 − p) × 100 (73¢: 0.73 ÷ 0.27 = −270). The line has moved slightly toward Ruffy since it opened, from 26¢ (+280) to 28¢ (+260). Prices change quickly on fight night; the live widget below shows Kalshi's current quote.
Method of victory
| Outcome | BetMGM Sep 1913 | Book not named Sep 1716 |
|---|---|---|
| Tsarukyan by submission | 62¢ −165 | 30¢ +230 |
| Tsarukyan by KO/TKO | 36¢ +175 | 31¢ +220 |
| Tsarukyan by decision | 22¢ +350 | 22¢ +360 |
| Ruffy by KO/TKO | 22¢ +350 | 20¢ +390 |
| Ruffy by decision | 8¢ +1200 | 7¢ +1300 |
| Ruffy by submission | 3¢ +3250 | 3¢ +3000 |
BetMGM prices as reported by SportsBettingDime; the second column is BestFightOdds' breakdown, which doesn't name the book. Over/under 2.5 rounds was 53¢ (−112) each way there on Sep 17.16
The optional 40¢ cash-out
The pick is Ruffy to win. The 40¢ sell order is for readers who would rather take a profit on a strong start than ride five rounds. At 28¢ in, a fill at 40¢ is a 12¢ gain per contract before fees, about +150 as a moneyline.
How it could fill: Ruffy's last two wins were stoppages, in rounds one and two.1 If he hurts Tsarukyan early, YES Ruffy should reprice in the fight. Kalshi fight markets can trade while the fight is on: on the same card, the Chikadze contract moved from 21-22¢ to a 31¢ peak during his fight (our record).
How it could fail: that same 31¢ peak fell short of our 35¢ target and the order never filled. There's no promise 40¢ trades, and a resting order fills only if the market is open and someone buys at that price. If it doesn't fill, you hold to settlement.
Live from Kalshi
Ruffy vs Tsarukyan on Kalshi
YES prices for both fighters from Kalshi's public data, refreshed every 30 seconds, with the Ruffy price minute by minute against our 28¢ entry and the 40¢ sell order.
Loading Kalshi price history…
Source: Kalshi public market data, event KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19TSARUF, 1-minute candles (last trade). Times in Pacific. Prices can be a few seconds old.15
Cash-out simulator · Kalshi fees in
What $200, $1,000 or $2,000 does
Buy YES Ruffy at the 28¢ ask (5:38 PM PT), then either the 40¢ sell order fills or you hold to settlement.
| Scenario | $200 | $1,000 | $2,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracts at 28¢ Cost incl. buy fee | 680 $200.00 | 3,400 $999.99 | 6,800 $1,999.97 |
| Buy fee Included above | $9.60 | $47.99 | $95.97 |
| Sell order fills at 40¢ Optional cash-out · sell fee taken off | +$60.57 | +$302.89 | +$605.79 |
| Hold, Ruffy wins Each contract pays $1.00 | +$480.00 | +$2,400.01 | +$4,800.03 |
| Hold, Tsarukyan wins Contracts settle at $0 | −$200.00 | −$999.99 | −$1,999.97 |
Fees use Kalshi's taker formula, 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, on the buy and on the 40¢ sell. Contracts are the most the stake buys with the fee included. A resting order can pay a lower fee than this. Large orders may not fill completely at one price, and the ask moves: these numbers are for the 28¢ ask we recorded, not a live quote.
Sources
- Wikipedia, Maurício Ruffy: record, fight dates and methods, UFC 331 booking. en.wikipedia.org
- Yahoo Sports, UFC Freedom 250 results: Ruffy vs Chandler. sports.yahoo.com
- MMA Mania, UFC White House results. mmamania.com
- Wikipedia, Arman Tsarukyan: record, last fights, UFC 311 withdrawal. en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia, RAF 11: Covington def. Tsarukyan 5-3, Jul 18, 2026. en.wikipedia.org
- Yahoo Sports, RAF 11 live results. sports.yahoo.com
- Bloody Elbow, Covington defeats Tsarukyan at RAF 11. bloodyelbow.com
- Wikipedia, Colby Covington: wrestling background and earlier RAF matches. en.wikipedia.org
- Yahoo / Forbes, UFC 331 opening odds (Sep 1). sports.yahoo.com
- BestFightOdds, Tsarukyan fighter page: open, early move, closing range. bestfightodds.com
- BetMGM, Tsarukyan vs Ruffy predictions and odds. sports.betmgm.com
- DraftKings Network, Tsarukyan vs Ruffy pick (Sep 19). dknetwork.draftkings.com
- SportsBettingDime, BetMGM moneyline and method props (Sep 19). sportsbettingdime.com
- BestFightOdds, UFC 331 prediction markets (Polymarket Tsarukyan 73%, Ruffy 28%). bestfightodds.com
- Kalshi public market data, KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19TSARUF-RUF and -TSA, fetched Sep 19, 2026, 5:38 PM PT. external-api.kalshi.com
- BestFightOdds, UFC 331 breakdown: method and round props (Sep 17). bestfightodds.com
All checked Sat, Sep 19, 2026, before the fight. Odds are what those pages showed then; they will move.
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21+. This is our opinion on a price, not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets and sports betting can lose you money fast, and an underdog pick loses more often than it wins. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.