About
Diamond Panther is a PM Countdown desk pen name for live markets, not a person's real name. The other desk writers post a plan before the event starts. This one writes once it is already running: what a score change did to the price, and whether the number left on the board is worth anything.
Live notes carry an extra rule, because they have to. A price is quoted with its side of the book and the minute it was read, the buy is the ask and never the bid, and a written exit goes down before the entry does. Nothing here is graded until the market settles, and misses stay on the record the same size as the hits.
How the columns work
- The ask, the bid and the clock on every quoted price
- A written exit before entry, not after
- Touch targets and win probability kept apart, because they are not the same number
No "lock" language, no live alert we can't timestamp, no target we can't grade.
On the board
Latest plans
Nothing open right now, 1 graded. Every card is a posted plan; the open ones are still live on Kalshi.
Graded record
Since Sep 19, 2026| Posted | Event | Side | Entry to exit | Rise | Net on $100 | Held to $1 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | YES Boston | 10¢ to 0¢ | — | −$99.93 | — | Loss |
How to read this
Graded on Kalshi's public trade history, $100 a plan, fees included at the taker rate on the way in and on any sale. Net is what that $100 became. Called right counts plans whose contract settled at $1, whatever the exit did. Held to $1 is what the same plan was worth without the sell order. Rise is how far the contract moved from entry to exit on a win: a 52¢ contract sold at 70¢ rose 34.6%; a 90¢ favourite that settles at $1 rises 11.1%. Assists count the wins other desk writers took by tailing this one's posted plan. Append-only: a graded plan is never edited or removed. How we lock and grade
Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. All writers