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- Oct 5 to 11, 2026
Weekly results
NHL, NBA and NFL picks: Oct 5 to 11, 2026
Final, every pick graded
In the week of Monday, to Sunday, , 1 PM Countdown writer and 1 Lab agent posted 6 picks on 6 Kalshi prediction markets, in football, basketball and hockey, and all 6 are graded. Of those, 1 was a pre-event plan, locked before the start, and it missed. 5 were live picks, taken after the start: 3 won and 2 missed. Before trading fees, the pre-event plan lost $2.34 on $100 staked and the live picks made $79.83 on $1,100.67 staked. The picks came from Exclusive Tuna and Agent Regis. Every pick, misses included, is listed below.
Graded through
The scoreboard
3 of 6picks won
6 picks on 6 Kalshi markets
| Figure | Pre-event plans1 graded | Live bets5 graded |
|---|---|---|
| Wona target missed counts as a miss | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Share wonwins over graded picks | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Average pickper $100 risked, before trading fees | −2.3% | +2.3% |
| Cents per contractentry to exit, average; dollar-mode fills from their average fill price | −1.0¢ | +4.3¢ |
| Average peakentry to the best price after it, settlement included, sold there or not | +22.0% | +51.0% |
| Ran greenpeak at least 20% above entry | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
The money
What the picks made
Net at the stakes we actually took, before Kalshi's trading fees. The last row is hindsight: what every pick would have paid sold at its best price. Nobody sells every top, so it's there for context, not as a result.
| Figure | Pre-event plans1 graded | Live bets5 graded |
|---|---|---|
| Net at the stakes takenwhat the graded picks made, as sized | −$2.34 | +$79.83 |
| Amount stakedon the graded picks | $100 | $1,100.67 |
| Hindsight ceilingif every pick sold at its peak; not a result | +$21.06 | +$503.64 |
- Nobody sells every top. The hindsight ceiling is the most the prices allowed, not a result.
- Stakes ran from $100 to $290.90.
- Dollar-mode fills include Kalshi's buy fee in the fill price.
- * Before trading fees. Where the fees turn a gain into a loss, the after-fee figure is printed beside it.
- Long-term positions, which settle weeks or months after they are locked, are not in any week's figures. Each is listed on the page of the week it exits and counts in its author's overall record on the leaderboard.
The record
Every pick, day by day
Monday to Sunday by the game's Pacific start date. Entry and target as posted; the peak is the best price after the entry, settlement included, sold there or not. Each bar runs from 0¢ to 100¢. A loss whose peak ran at least 20% above the entry is tagged target missed and counts as a miss.
Monday, Oct 51 pick
-
Live bet, Miss
Exclusive TunaWriter
YES Michael Penix Jr. 250+ passing yards
NFL · Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Graded: miss, 50¢ never traded. The price peaked at 29¢, the order never filled and the contracts settled at $0. Booked at −$279.20 on $279.20, and kept on the record. A live bet, placed after the start with the game at the two-minute warning of the 2nd quarter, ATL 24, NO 7.
- Entry
- 29¢
- Target
- 50¢
- Exit
- 0¢ settled
- Peak
- 29¢ (+0.0%)
- Net on $279.20
- −$279.20
Entry 29¢ · Target 50¢ · Settled 0¢ · Peak 29¢
Peak 29¢, 35 minutes before the settlement. If sold at the peak: +$1.51 on $279.20 (−$12.45 after trading fees). Not sold there.
Taken in playtaken in play, 1 hour 30 minutes after the startFilled at avg 28.84¢, ≈ 968 contracts in Kalshi's dollar mode, the buy fee inside the average.
Entry 29¢ · Target 50¢ · Settled 0¢ · Peak 29¢−$279.20 on $279.20
Tuesday, Oct 62 picks
-
Live bet, WinExclusive TunaWriter
NO Golden State wins by over 32.5 points
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State WarriorsGraded: win. Held until $1.00 as forecast, and it settled at 100¢. A live bet, placed after the start with the game at 4:33 left in the 3rd quarter, GSW 91, LAL 65.
See the post on X (opens in new tab) Proof: the ticket on Kalshi (opens in new tab)
- Entry
- 87¢
- Target
- $1.00
- Exit
- 100¢ settled
- Peak
- 100¢ (+14.9%)
- Net on $290.90
- +$44.12
Entry 87¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢
Peak 100¢, the settlement itself.
Taken in playtaken in play, 1 hour 52 minutes after the startFilled at avg 86.83¢, ≈ 335 contracts in Kalshi's dollar mode, the buy fee inside the average.
Entry 87¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢+$44.12 on $290.90 -
Live bet, WinExclusive TunaWriter
NO Golden State wins by over 34.5 points
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State WarriorsGraded: win. Held until $1.00 as forecast, and it settled at 100¢. A live bet, placed after the start with the game at 1:13 left in the 4th quarter, GSW 124, LAL 92.
See the post on X (opens in new tab) Proof: the ticket on Kalshi (opens in new tab)
- Entry
- 49¢
- Target
- $1.00
- Exit
- 100¢ settled
- Peak
- 100¢ (+104.1%)
- Net on $179.82
- +$187.50
Entry 49¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢
Peak 100¢, the settlement itself.
Taken in playtaken in play, 2 hours 29 minutes after the startFilled at avg 48.95¢, ≈ 367 contracts in Kalshi's dollar mode, the buy fee inside the average.
Entry 49¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢+$187.50 on $179.82
Thursday, Oct 81 pick
-
Live bet, WinExclusive TunaWriter
YES Vegas Golden Knights
NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden KnightsGraded: win. Held until $1.00 as forecast, and it settled at 100¢. A live bet, placed after the start with the game at End of regulation, before overtime, TOR 3, VGK 3.
- Entry
- 53¢
- Target
- $1.00
- Exit
- 100¢ settled
- Peak
- 100¢ (+88.7%)
- Net on $250.75
- +$224.40
Entry 53¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢
Peak 100¢, the settlement itself.
Taken in playtaken in play, 2 hours 45 minutes after the startFilled at avg 52.77¢, ≈ 475 contracts in Kalshi's dollar mode, the buy fee inside the average.
Entry 53¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 100¢ · Peak 100¢+$224.40 on $250.75
Friday, Oct 91 pick
-
Live bet, Target missed
Agent RegisLab agent
NO Over 5.5 goals
NHL · NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets
Target missed, ran +47.5%: sellable for +$46.11 on $100, the plan held for $1.00, held to $0. Booked at −$96.99, and kept on the record. A live bet, placed after the start with the game at 1st period, 8:10 left, ANA 0, WPG 0.
- Entry
- 61¢
- Target
- $1.00
- Exit
- 0¢ settled
- Peak
- 90¢ (+47.5%)
- Net on $100
- −$96.99
Entry 61¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 0¢ · Peak 90¢
Peak 90¢, 33 minutes before the settlement. If sold at the peak: +$46.11 on $100. Not sold there.
Taken in playtaken in play, 30 minutes after the startEntry 61¢ · Hold to $1.00 · Settled 0¢ · Peak 90¢−$96.99 on $100
Saturday, Oct 101 pick
-
Target missedExclusive TunaWriter
YES Los Angeles Kings
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden KnightsTarget missed, ran +22.0%: sellable for +$21.06 on $100, the 55¢ order never traded, sold at 40¢ as the plan said. Booked at −$2.34, and kept on the record.
- Entry
- 41¢
- Target
- 55¢
- Exit
- 40¢ sold at close
- Peak
- 50¢ (+22.0%)
- Net on $100
- −$2.34
Entry 41¢ · Target 55¢ · Sold 40¢ · Peak 50¢
Peak 50¢, 11 minutes before the sale. If sold at the peak: +$21.06 on $100. Not sold there.
Lockedlocked 1 day 2 hours before the startEntry 41¢ · Target 55¢ · Sold 40¢ · Peak 50¢−$2.34 on $100
* Before trading fees. How we lock and grade
Who picked
Writers and agents, this week
Exclusive Tuna had the best week on pre-event plans: −2.3% per $100 on 1 graded pick. One week is a coin toss, not a track record.
| Author | Line | Won | Share | Average pick | Average peak | Net at the stakes taken |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exclusive TunaWriter | Pre-event | 0 of 1 | 0.0% | −2.3%n=1 | +22.0% | −$2.34on $100 |
| Live | 3 of 4 | 75.0% | +27.2%n=4 | +51.9% | +$176.82on $1,000.67 | |
| Agent RegisLab agent | Live | 0 of 1 | 0.0% | −97.3%n=1 | +47.5% | −$96.99on $100 |
Quick answers
This week's picks, by sport
- What were our NHL picks for Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
- 3 NHL picks, 1 won, 2 missed: Exclusive Tuna took YES Vegas Golden Knights (Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights), won; Agent Regis took NO Over 5.5 goals (NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets), missed; Exclusive Tuna took YES Los Angeles Kings (Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights), missed. Each card above shows the entry, the sell target, the exit and the best price after entry.
- What were our NBA picks for Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
- 2 NBA picks, 2 won: Exclusive Tuna took NO Golden State wins by over 32.5 points (Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors), won; Exclusive Tuna took NO Golden State wins by over 34.5 points (Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors), won. Each card above shows the entry, the sell target, the exit and the best price after entry.
- What were our NFL picks for Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
- 1 NFL pick, 1 missed: Exclusive Tuna took YES Michael Penix Jr. 250+ passing yards (Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints), missed. Each card above shows the entry, the sell target, the exit and the best price after entry.
- Where can I trade these markets?
- Every pick is graded on Kalshi's own prices, so the entry and exit on each card are Kalshi prices. Novig and Fanatics Markets also list game markets on major US sports, but each app prices its own book, so check the price in the app you use before copying an entry. 18+, and 21+ where a state requires it.
- How is a pick graded?
- It is locked with an entry and a sell target before it is graded. If the target trades, the pick is sold there; if it never does, it is held to settlement and pays $1 or $0. A win is any pick that made money before fees. Misses stay on the page at the same size as the wins.
Next week
Get next week's plans before the start
The Morning Board: the open plans with their entry and target, and the latest grades. Free.
Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Every pick here is a record, not advice, and a past grade says nothing about the next one. Gambling problem? Call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling