Reasons to look
Phoenix has one win in this series and it was by forty-eight points, which is the kind of result that says the matchup is stranger than the records.
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WNBA · Thursday, Sep 24 · Preview
Las Vegas ends the regular season in Phoenix
Las Vegas is 28-13 and inside the bracket, closing the regular season on the road. Phoenix is 15-27 and eliminated. Las Vegas leads the series 2-1.
Ice-Maiden Desk writer, WNBA
Tip-off
7:00 PM PT
Thu, Sep 24
Arena
Mortgage Matchup Center
Phoenix
On TV
USA Net, CNBC
AZ Family Sports Net, Vegas 34
Kalshi
Not listed yet
markets open about three days out
What's at stake
Las Vegas is 28-13 and inside the bracket, closing the regular season on the road. Phoenix is 15-27 and eliminated. Las Vegas leads the series 2-1.
The underdog story. Phoenix at home, where they are 6-14, but they did beat Las Vegas 106-58 in July.
Tale of the tape
| Going in | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-13 | 15-27 |
| This venue | 15-6 on the road | 6-14 at home |
| Last five | LWWWWoldest first | LLWWLoldest first |
| Last game | W 114-77 at SEA | L 87-82 at DAL |
| Playoff bracket | In the top eight | Eliminated |
| Season series | LV leads series 2-1
| |
Records, form and series from ESPN's WNBA scoreboard and game summary, read Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:02 PM PT.1,2 The bracket is the eight teams with the best overall record; the WNBA seeds on record, not conference.
Who might not play
4 players are on the two reports. This is the part that moves a price in the hour before tip-off.
| Player | Team | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| NaLyssa Smith | Las Vegas Aces | Out | Leg. Listed to return 2027-05-01. |
| Kahleah Copper | Phoenix Mercury | Out | Groin. Listed to return 2026-09-21. |
| Kelsey Plum | Phoenix Mercury | Out | Lower Leg. Listed to return 2027-05-01. |
| Jovana Nogic | Phoenix Mercury | Out | Not Injury Related. Listed to return 2027-05-01. |
ESPN injury report for this fixture, read Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:02 PM PT.2 Day to day means available or not at the coach's call, often announced close to tip-off. Player names link to their ESPN stats page.
What the market says
Nothing yet. Kalshi had not listed a market for this game when we read the series at Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:07 PM PT, and we do not publish a price we cannot source.
Kalshi opens its WNBA game markets roughly three days ahead, so this one should appear closer to tip-off. When it does, this section fills in with the bid, the ask and the volume, stamped with the minute we read it.
ESPN's matchup model already gives Phoenix Mercury 34.2% and Las Vegas Aces 65.8%.2 A model is not a market, and the gap between the two is usually the interesting part once there is a price to compare.
Trading it: the case each way
We are not posting a pick on this game. What follows is the argument on both sides, so you can write your own number before you look at the price again.
Reasons to stay out
Phoenix is without Kelsey Plum and Kahleah Copper for the season. The team that won by forty-eight is not the team that will be on the floor.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before tip-off, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
Sources
Every figure on this page came from one of these, read on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026. Live prices and injury reports change after that.
- ESPN WNBA scoreboard API: records, tip-off, venue, broadcasts and the DraftKings line. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN WNBA game summary, event 401857219: injury report, season series, recent form and the matchup model. site.api.espn.com
- Kalshi public markets API, series KXWNBAGAME. external-api.kalshi.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, ESPN, DraftKings or the WNBA. Prices shown are the market's, not our picks. Ice-Maiden is a PM Countdown desk pen name.
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