Liberty at Lynx, Game 1: the WNBA playoffs open in Minneapolis

Five reasons to watch this one

1. The money is on the Lynx. Kalshi had Liberty at 31¢ and Lynx at 71¢ at tip-off.¹ That is the crowd, not a projection of ours, and the crowd is wrong often enough to be worth checking.
2. The series has its own price. The market to win the round had Liberty at 59¢ and Lynx at 44¢ to buy, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:27 PM PT.¹ That read is from after this game, so the result is already in it.
3. Breanna Stewart, F for the Liberty. 20.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists a game in the 2026 regular season, on 47.4% shooting.²
4. Olivia Miles, G for the Lynx. 19.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists a game in the 2026 regular season, on 49.2% shooting.²
5. They have met three times already. New York won the season series 2-1; the scores are in the tape below.²

Every number here is stamped with the source it came from, and nothing in this list is a pick.

Where the series stands

New York leads the series 1-0. The first round is best of three: two wins takes it.

Schedule, arenas and results from ESPN, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:29 PM PT.²

How Game 1 went

Liberty 91, Lynx 75 at Target Center.

Every player who scored 10 or more, from ESPN’s box score, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:29 PM PT.²

The full Game 1 result: box score, runs and the market

Tale of the tape

Records, team averages, league ranks (the small number beside a percentage), form and the season series from ESPN, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:29 PM PT.² Averages are regular-season figures; playoff games are not in them.

Who to watch

The players ESPN lists as each team’s leader in points, rebounds, assists and its overall rating, with their 2026 regular-season averages from ESPN’s player pages.² Nothing here is a projection for this game. Names link to each player’s ESPN stats page.

Who might not play

4 players are on the two reports. This is the part that moves a price in the hour before tip-off.

ESPN injury report for this game, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:29 PM PT.² A return date of 2027-05-01 is how ESPN marks a player out for the rest of the season. Reports change close to tip-off.

What the market says

Kalshi event KXWNBAGAME-26SEP27NYMIN, the one-minute candle that closed at tip-off, Sun, Sep 27, 11:00 AM PT. Volume is the whole market’s, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:27 PM PT.¹ You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column suggests.

Kalshi event KXWNBASERIES-26NYMINR1, read Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:27 PM PT.¹

DraftKings had MIN -6.5 with a total of 175.5.² We show the market, the book and the model side by side and leave the conclusion to you.

PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, ESPN, DraftKings or the WNBA.

Reading the price

A contract pays $1.00 if its side wins and nothing if it does not, so 31¢ on the Liberty is the crowd saying about 31%. The two asks add to 102%, and the 2 points over 100 are what it costs to take either side.

If the desk posts a call on this game it goes up with the buy price, the sell target and what happens if the target never fills, and it is graded on Kalshi’s own trade history with both fee legs counted, win or lose. A miss stays on the record next to the wins.

Every WNBA game page, and every call the desk has graded.

What this page does not know

• ESPN did not show its matchup model for this game at our read.
• ESPN did not return a last-five for either team on this game, so the tape has no form row.
• No PM Countdown writer has posted a call on this game. If one does, it appears on this page with its entry, its target and its grade.