Los Angeles
Nneka Ogwumike
17.2 pts 8.8 reb 3.0 ast
She leads the Sparks in scoring and rebounding and has been their leading scorer in most of their recent games. In the June meeting with Portland she pulled down 17 rebounds.
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WNBA · Sunday, Sep 20, 2026 · Preview and plan
Can the Sparks beat Portland at home at even money?
The market calls it a coin flip. Kalshi has Los Angeles at 52¢ and Portland at 50¢ for Sunday's 4:00 PM PT tip at crypto.com Arena, and DraftKings has the Sparks at −1.5. Both teams are eliminated, so nobody is being rested. We are on Los Angeles, and the case against our own plan is on this page too.
Ice-Maiden Desk writer, WNBA
Tip-off
4:00 PM PT
7:00 PM ET
Arena
crypto.com Arena
Los Angeles, CA
Kalshi, both sides
52¢ vs 50¢
Los Angeles, Portland
Five reasons to be in the building
This is the only game on the WNBA board this week that the market treats as a coin flip. Everything else on Sunday is priced at 69¢ or wider. Portland at Los Angeles is 52¢ to 50¢.
- The market has no favorite. Kalshi has Los Angeles at 52¢ and Portland at 50¢.4 DraftKings lists Los Angeles at −1.5 with a moneyline of −118 against −102.1 Two independent markets, both saying the same thing: this is a jump ball.
- The price has been moving toward Portland. Los Angeles opened at 58¢ when the market listed on Sep 17 and sits at 52¢ now. Portland has gone 46¢ to 50¢ over the same stretch.4
- Nneka Ogwumike. 17.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists a game, and she leads the Sparks in both scoring and rebounding.1 She led the Sparks in scoring with 27, 24 and 23 in the three games before their loss at Dallas, and with 18 in that one.3
- Portland has never beaten them. Los Angeles leads the season series 2 to 0, by 89–72 in June and 106–101 in Portland in August, and won the preseason meeting 85–75 as well.2,3 Sunday is the Fire's last road game of their first season.
- Neither team is protecting anything. Portland is 16–26 and Los Angeles 15–26. Both are out of the eight-team bracket, so nobody is being rested for a playoff run.1
Prices and listings read Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 11:37 AM PT. We stamp every number with the minute we read it and we do not round in our own favor. Nothing on this page is a pick.
Tale of the tape
| Going in | Portland Fire | Los Angeles Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-26 | 15-26 |
| This venue | 8-13 on the road | 7-13 at home |
| Last five | LWLLLoldest first | WLWWLoldest first |
| Last game | L 66-82 at Golden State Fri, Sep 18 | L 77-97 at Dallas Thu, Sep 17 |
| Points leader | Carla Leite 15.8 | Nneka Ogwumike 17.2 |
| Rebounds leader | Emily Engstler 5.7 | Nneka Ogwumike 8.8 |
| Assists leader | Carla Leite 6.3 | Erica Wheeler 5.1 |
| Season series | Los Angeles leads 2-0. Jun 7 in LA, 89-72. Aug 2 in Portland, 106-101. | |
| Rest | 2 days | 3 days |
| Games left after this | 1 Golden State at home, Tue Sep 22 | 2 at Las Vegas Tue, Golden State at home Thu |
Records, leaders and results from ESPN's WNBA scoreboard and both team schedule pages, read Sep 20, 2026.1,3 Per-game leader figures are season averages, not projections for this game.
Who to watch
Portland
Carla Leite
15.8 pts 6.3 ast 2.1 reb
The Fire's lead guard and the engine of an expansion roster. She scored 27, 23, 27 and 26 across four August games and led Portland in assists in every one of them.
Portland
Emily Engstler
5.7 reb a game
Portland's rebounding leader, taken from Washington in the expansion draft. She had 21 points and 7 rebounds against Phoenix on Sep 17 and 15 rebounds at Dallas in August.
Los Angeles
Rae Burrell
Multiple 20-point games since July
Not a listed team leader, but the Sparks' most frequent second scorer through the summer: 28 at New York, 24 twice, and 20 against Connecticut in the win that ended their August slide.
Season averages from ESPN's game leaders for this fixture. Individual game lines from both team schedule pages, read Sep 20, 2026.1,3
Who might not play
This is the part that moves a coin-flip price in the hour before tip-off. Five of the seven names below were listed day to day for Sunday, which means the lineups are not settled yet.
| Player | Team | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dearica Hamby | Los Angeles | Day to day | Knee. Listed for Sep 20. |
| Cameron Brink | Los Angeles | Day to day | Ankle. Listed for Sep 20. |
| Aaliyah Nye | Los Angeles | Day to day | Ankle. Listed for Sep 20. |
| Bridget Carleton | Portland | Day to day | Ankle. She has not led Portland in any category in their last two games. |
| Jordan Harrison | Portland | Day to day | Ankle. Listed for Sep 20. |
| Teja Oblak | Portland | Out | Knee. Listed to return Sep 22. |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Portland | Out | Left knee surgery. Listed to return May 2027. |
| Luisa Geiselsoder | Portland | Out | Personal. Listed to return May 2027. |
ESPN injury report for this fixture, read Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 11:37 AM PT.2 Day to day means available or not at the coach's call, often announced close to tip-off. Check the team feeds before you trade on it.
What the market says
Two markets and one model disagree, and the gap is the whole story. Kalshi and DraftKings both price this as a coin flip. ESPN's own matchup model gives Los Angeles 67.7%.
| Source | Los Angeles | Portland | Read at |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi, bid and ask | 51¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 50¢ | 11:35 AM PT |
| Kalshi, last trade | 52¢ | 50¢ | 11:35 AM PT |
| Kalshi, previous price | 58¢ | 46¢ | market opened Sep 17 |
| Kalshi volume | 30,884 | 15,662 | 11:35 AM PT |
| DraftKings moneyline | −118 | −102 | 11:32 AM PT |
| DraftKings spread | −1.5 (−105) | +1.5 (−115) | 11:32 AM PT |
| ESPN matchup model | 67.7% | 32.3% | 11:37 AM PT |
Fifteen percentage points is a large gap between a model and a market on the same game. We are not telling you which is right. We are telling you the disagreement exists, because a price that two independent markets agree on and one model does not is the kind of market worth watching rather than trading blind. ESPN's model does not see Sunday's lineup sheet either, and three Sparks rotation players are listed day to day.
The point spread ladder
Kalshi does not publish a single spread. It lists a separate contract at each margin, so the line has to be read off the ladder. The rung nearest an even price is Los Angeles by more than 1.5, at 47¢ to 49¢, which lands in the same place DraftKings does.
| Contract | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland wins by over 6.5 | 30¢ | 31¢ | 48 |
| Portland wins by over 3.5 | 40¢ | 41¢ | 1 |
| Portland wins by over 1.5 | 45¢ | 47¢ | 84 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 | 47¢ | 49¢ | 73 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 3.5 | 41¢ | 42¢ | 24 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 6.5 | 31¢ | 32¢ | 27 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 9.5 | 22¢ | 23¢ | 167 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 12.5 | 14¢ | 15¢ | 312 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 15.5 | 9¢ | 10¢ | 607 |
Kalshi series KXWNBASPREAD, event 26SEP20PDXLA, read 11:35 AM PT.4 The two highlighted rungs are the ones nearest an even price. The line is derived from the ladder, not quoted by Kalshi. Volumes on the ladder are small, which means the spread contracts are thin and can be expensive to get out of.
Player points markets
Kalshi lists 17 player points contracts on this game across six players. Ogwumike 20+ is the most traded of them, and Carleton 15+ is second, which is notable given she is listed day to day.
| Player | 10+ | 15+ | 20+ | Most traded rung |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike LA | 90¢ | 70¢ | 43¢ | 20+ · 518 |
| Carla Leite POR | 88¢ | 63¢ | 34¢ | 15+ · 2 |
| Bridget Carleton POR | 77¢ | 48¢ | 23¢ | 15+ · 482 |
| Rae Burrell LA | 85¢ | 60¢ | 32¢ | 15+ · 2 |
| Megan DiLeo POR | 78¢ | 46¢ | 22¢ | 15+ · 122 |
| Ariel Atkins LA | 32¢ | 9¢ | not listed | no trades yet |
Prices are the ask, Kalshi series KXWNBAPTS, event 26SEP20PDXLA, read 11:35 AM PT.4 You pay the ask to buy and receive the bid to sell, so the real cost of a round trip is wider than a single column suggests. Most of these rungs have traded fewer than five contracts today.
The plan: Los Angeles at 52¢
Open plan Posted 11:50 AM PT, before tip-off. Graded on Kalshi's trade history after settlement.
Side
Los Angeles YES
Entry
52¢ or better
Sell target
70¢
resting order, placed before tip-off
Hold rule
Hold to settlement
if 70¢ never trades
Break-even
53.75%
after the entry fee
The argument
At 52¢ the market is charging almost nothing for home court. With neither team playing for anything, the game comes down to who has the better players on the floor, and that is Los Angeles.
- Home court is nearly free at this price. The market has already looked at the Sparks' home record and priced the advantage down to almost zero: Los Angeles is −1.5 on DraftKings and 52¢ on Kalshi.1,4 You are not paying a premium to be on the home side. Whatever the building is worth on Sunday, you are getting it at close to cost.
- Nothing to play for cuts one way, not both. Both teams are eliminated, so neither is running playoff preparation and neither is resting anyone for a bracket. That strips the game back to the talent available, and Nneka Ogwumike at 17.2 points and 8.8 rebounds is the best player who will be on the floor.1
- Los Angeles has already won both meetings. 89–72 in June and 106–101 in Portland in August, plus 85–75 in the preseason. The Fire have not beaten this team yet.2,3
- The absences fall on Portland. Bridget Carleton, Portland's second scorer, is day to day and has not led the team in any category in their last two games. Teja Oblak, Sarah Ashlee Barker and Luisa Geiselsoder are out. Los Angeles has three day-to-day names and nobody ruled out.2,3
- Form and rest. Portland has lost three in a row and four of five. Los Angeles has three days off to Portland's two.3
- The number that makes it a trade, not an opinion. After the entry fee, 52¢ needs Los Angeles to win 53.75% of the time to break even. ESPN's matchup model puts them at 67.7%.2 We do not think the model is exactly right. We think the gap between 53.75% and 67.7% is wide enough to be worth 100 contracts.
Why this could be wrong
We publish the case against our own plan, because a plan that only lists its reasons is marketing.
- The Sparks are bad at home. 7-13 at crypto.com Arena against 8-13 on the road. Their home record is the worse of the two.1 BetMGM ranked them 13th of 15 in home-court advantage on Aug 6, at 5-9 with a −5.0 home net rating.5 If you are buying this for the crowd, the crowd has not shown up in the numbers.
- Portland has the better record. 16-26 against 15-26. On the season, they are the slightly better team.1
- The last meeting was close. Los Angeles won by five in Portland, not by a comfortable margin.3
- 52¢ is the most expensive place on the fee curve. Kalshi's taker fee peaks near 50¢. Going in and out quickly here costs more than it would at any other price.6
- The lineups are not final. Three Los Angeles rotation players are day to day. If Hamby and Brink both sit, the argument above is weaker than it looks now.2
The math, shown per 100 contracts
We show every plan's math on 100 contracts because it is the unit the rest of the site teaches in, not because it is the size anyone should trade. Scale it to your own bankroll.
| Buy 100 YES Los Angeles at 52¢ | $52.00 |
|---|---|
| Entry taker fee0.07 × 100 × 0.52 × 0.48 = $1.7472, rounded up | $1.75 |
| CostWhat leaves the account when the buy fills | $53.75 |
| Break-even chanceWhy 52¢ is not the number that matters | 53.75% |
| If the 70¢ sell order fills$70.00 back, minus a $0.37 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on this market | +$15.88 |
| If it never trades and Los Angeles winsSettles at $1.00 × 100 = $100.00, minus the $53.75 cost | +$46.25 |
| If it never trades and Los Angeles losesSettles at $0. This is the most 100 contracts can lose. | −$53.75 |
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule.6 The percentages do not change with size, only the dollars do. How the fee works
What this plan costs at your stake
Your money, not ours. Pick a stake and the slip works out how many contracts it buys, what Kalshi's entry fee takes, and what each outcome pays. Every figure uses the same fee formula as the table above.
- Contracts
- 186
- Contracts cost
- $96.72
- Entry fee
- $3.25
- Total out
- $99.97
- If 70¢ fills
- +$29.54
- If it holds and wins
- +$86.03
- If it holds and loses
- −$99.97
A stake rarely divides evenly into whole contracts, so a few cents are left over. Both fee rows assume Kalshi's taker rate going in and its maker rate on a resting sell order. This is the arithmetic of the plan at your size, not a recommendation to trade it.
This plan will be graded on this page and on Ice-Maiden's record after settlement, win or lose, using Kalshi's own trade history to decide whether 70¢ actually traded. We do not regrade a miss.
Sources
Every figure on this page came from one of these four, read on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026 between 11:32 and 11:37 AM Pacific. Live prices and ticket listings change after that.
- ESPN WNBA scoreboard API, Sep 20 slate: records, tip-off, venue, broadcasts, team leaders and the DraftKings line. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN WNBA game summary, event 401857204: injury report, season series, matchup model and ticket listing. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN team schedules, game by game results and remaining fixtures. Sparks · Fire
- Kalshi public markets API: moneyline (KXWNBAGAME), point spread ladder (KXWNBASPREAD) and player points (KXWNBAPTS), event 26SEP20PDXLA. external-api.kalshi.com
- BetMGM, WNBA home-court advantage ranking, Aug 6, 2026: Los Angeles 13th of 15, 5-9 at home, −5.0 home net rating. sports.betmgm.com
- Kalshi fee schedule, taker and maker formulas. kalshi.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, ESPN, DraftKings or the WNBA. Prices shown are the market's, not our picks. Ice-Maiden is a PM Countdown desk pen name.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.