Column · NHL · Ducks at Golden Knights · Friday, Oct 2
Ducks up 4-0 on Vegas Why I took the other side
The favorite was down four at home with a period to play, and Kalshi was pricing a four-goal Anaheim win like a coin flip. I bought NO at 50.62¢. Here is the case I made at 4-0, what the price did next, and how a 4-3 final paid $987.58 on $500.
The short version
A four-goal lead has to survive twenty minutes against the team the market liked by two to one before the game. My ticket needed one Vegas goal that Anaheim did not answer. Vegas got three, Anaheim got none, and NO settled at $1.00: +$487.58, up 97.5%.
Exclusive Tuna Lead writer · the trade and the 9 leg parlay
Bought at
50.62¢
8:30 PM PT, 4-0
$500 paid
$987.58
settled at $1.00
Vegas to win
67¢ to 5¢
start to 4-0, Kalshi
Lowest it got
36¢
before Vegas scored
Result
Won
+$487.58
The spot I bought
Anaheim scored late in the first through Beckett Sennecke, then three times in the first seven minutes of the second: Alex Killorn, Jeff Malott and Leo Carlsson. By 8:13 PM PT it was 4-0 at T-Mobile Arena, and when I bought at 8:30 Kalshi had Vegas to win at 5¢, down from 67¢ at the start.
The market I cared about was the margin. “Anaheim wins by over 3.5 goals” was trading near 50¢ on the YES side. I bought the NO at 8:30 PM PT: $500 at a 50.62¢ average, 987.58 contracts that pay $987.58 on any final margin of three goals or fewer. The alert went out on X a minute later.
Why the favorite gets one back
- The ticket needs one goal, not a win. NO pays on a Ducks win by one, two or three, and on any Vegas comeback. At 4-0 the whole case is a single Vegas goal that Anaheim does not answer.
- The market liked Vegas two to one before the game. −218 at the close, 67¢ on Kalshi at the start. Four goals changed the score, not the roster: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl were still on the ice with a full period to play.
- Down four at home, a good team keeps shooting. Every power play and every late six-on-five is another chance at the goal the ticket needs. Vegas finished with 30 shots to Anaheim’s 20.
- Even money was too generous. For YES to win, Anaheim had to keep a four-goal lead through everything Vegas threw at it, or add to it. I did not think that was a coin flip.
It went against me first
No one scored for the rest of the second period or the start of the third, and the price drifted the wrong way. NO bottomed at 36¢, which put the position near $356. That is the part of a live ticket nobody screenshots, and it is why I size these at $500 and not more.
Then Shea Theodore scored at 9:04 PM PT, and Tomas Hertl scored on the power play at 9:10 PM. Two minutes after the second goal the NO side was at 90¢. At 9:29 PM I posted the update: NO at 92¢, the position worth about $909, and a sale there would have locked in about +82% for anyone who followed. Selling was a fair choice. I held, because Anaheim needed two more goals to beat it and Vegas was the team pressing.
Braeden Bowman made it 4-3 with under three minutes left. The market settled NO at 9:47 PM PT, and the ticket paid $987.58: +$487.58 on $500.
The 9 leg ticket
I liked the Vegas side enough to start a long shot with it. On Novig I put $50 on nine legs at 227.36x, to pay $11,367.77: Vegas +3.5, then eight college football team overs for Saturday. Notre Dame (37), Alabama (56), Georgia (38), Ohio State (31), Miami (41) and Indiana (47) all cleared, Georgia and Ohio State by half a point. Florida scored 17 in a loss at Missouri and BYU scored 17 at TCU, so the ticket went 7 for 9 and paid nothing.
That is what 227x costs: two quiet offenses and the whole slip is gone. If you want a slip that cashes more often, start from the legs you trust most, cut it to three or four, and size it to your own risk. Every leg and its margin.
Questions people ask
Why bet against Anaheim when the Ducks led 4-0?
The ticket did not need Vegas to win. NO on a 4+ goal Ducks win pays on any final margin of three or less, so one Vegas goal that Anaheim did not answer was enough. Vegas closed as a -218 home favorite, and the market priced the four-goal margin holding at about even money with more than a period left.
How much did the ticket pay?
$500 bought 987.58 contracts at a 50.62 cent average. The game ended 4-3, the contract settled at $1.00, and the ticket returned $987.58, a profit of $487.58 (+97.5%).
Could you sell before the end?
Yes. Kalshi markets stay open during the game. At 9:29 PM PT, with the score 4-2, NO was quoted at 92 cents and the position was worth about $909. Holding to the end paid about $79 more and carried the risk of an Anaheim goal.
What happened to the 9 leg parlay?
It went 7 for 9. Vegas +3.5 hit, as did Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Miami and Indiana overs. Florida and BYU each scored 17, short of their lines, so the $50 ticket was a miss.
Sources
The trade: my Kalshi order screen in the 8:31 PM PT post on X ($500, 50.62¢ average, pays $987.58) and the 9:29 PM update. Prices: Kalshi’s public one-minute candles for the Anaheim by over 3.5 goals market and the Vegas to win market, read Oct 5. Score, goals, shots and lines: ESPN’s game summary for event 401892433 (DraftKings lines), read Oct 5. Season context: NHL.com’s Oct 2 preview. The parlay: my Novig slip and the post on X; college finals from ESPN’s Oct 3 scoreboard.
Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.