Kalshi · KXBTC15M · Settled

Bitcoin 15-minute results: September 20, 2026

Name: Bitcoin 15-minute Kalshi window results, September 20, 2026
Creator: PM Countdown

Kalshi settled 73 bitcoin 15-minute windows in the session that ran from 6:00 AM Pacific on September 20, 2026 through 12:00 AM Pacific on September 21. Bitcoin closed above the price to beat in 40 of those windows and below it in 33. Every window below carries its Kalshi ticker, the price it had to beat, the value it settled at, and the YES price in cents at the open, the low, the high and the close.

The day in counts

Seven numbers that describe the session before any strategy is laid over it.

Windows settled: 736:00 AM PT to 12:00 AM PT
Closed up: 40Settled above the price to beat
Closed down: 33Settled at or below it
Total volume: 195,456,498As Kalshi reports it across the session
Biggest single-window move: +$490.655:15 PM PT window: $81,158.49 to beat, settled $81,649.14
First target: $80,334.906:00 AM PT window
Last target: $81,456.9212:00 AM PT window

Betting one side all day, $100 base, doubling after a loss

Two mechanical runs over the same 73 windows. Each one buys a single side at 50 cents whenever 50 cents actually traded inside the window, commits $100.00, doubles after a losing window and resets to $100.00 after a winning one. The stake is the money that leaves the account: Kalshi's taker fee is inside it, not billed on top, so a $100.00 bet costs $100.00 and buys the contracts that is left over after the fee. A losing window loses exactly the stake. 8 windows never printed 50 cents, so both runs sat those out and carried the stake.

Always up

Buys YES in every window

Started: 6:00 AM PTSeptember 20, 2026
Final: +$2,911.10
Bankroll needed: $800.00largest at the 10:45 AM PT window
Peak: +$2,911.1012:00 AM PT
Worst point: −$6.786:30 AM PT
Largest single stake: $800.00
Longest losing run: 3 windows
Windows skipped: 8 of 7350 cents never printed inside the window

Always down

Buys NO in every window

Started: 6:00 AM PTSeptember 20, 2026
Final: +$1,817.46
Bankroll needed: $12,613.54largest at the 8:30 AM PT window
Peak: +$1,917.4611:45 PM PT
Worst point: −$6,213.548:15 AM PT
Largest single stake: $6,400.00
Longest losing run: 6 windows
Windows skipped: 8 of 7350 cents never printed inside the window

Always up finished the day ahead, +$2,911.10 against +$1,817.46 for the always down run. That is the whole of what the day says.

Doubling after a loss only survives a short losing run. The always-down run lost 6 windows in a row, and the next window in that run needed $6,400.00 on a $100.00 base. A run of 10 would have needed $102,400.00 on one window to chase the same $100.00. Both sides finished positive on this particular day because September 20 never produced a long one-sided run, not because doubling works. A day that does produce one takes the stake past what most people have, and past Kalshi's book, before the run ends. This is one day of settled windows. It is not a strategy, and it is not advice.

Both runs, side by side

Press play and the two runs walk the session together, one window at a time, from 6:00 AM Pacific. The left panel is the always-up run, the right is always-down, and both are placing their bets into the same 73 windows. Both accounts start the day with $20,000, the same number, so the two panels can be read against each other. Each shows the running total and what is actually in the account. The second one is the one that dies and recovers.

Why a window says sat out. A run that pays a flat 50 cents can only enter a window where 50 cents traded. In 8 of the 73 windows it never did: the price opened on one side of 50 and stayed there for the full fifteen minutes, so there was nothing to buy at that price. Those windows are sat out and the stake carries to the next one, which is not free, because the stake carried is a doubled one. Step onto a sat-out window and the panel says which way that window's price missed. Switch to Buy at the open and nothing is sat out, because every window has an opening price.

These windows do not open at 50 cents. Across the 73 windows the YES price opened at exactly 50 cents 10 times. The median open was 51 cents and the range ran from 33 to 64. 27 windows opened within a cent of 50 and 52 within five.

So the cards above are not taking the open. They pay a flat 50 cents, and only in the 65 windows where 50 cents traded at some point inside the window; the other 8 are sat out. That is an assumption, and it is doing work: it assumes a fill at a coin-flip price whenever a coin-flip price existed anywhere in those fifteen minutes.

Switch the module to Buy at the open and the same day is re-run paying each window's actual opening price, which makes every window playable. Always up finishes +$3,314.21 instead of +$2,911.10. The interesting one is always down: it finishes about the same, +$1,839.82 against +$1,817.46, but it demands $6,250.18 instead of $12,613.54, because it never sits a window out and its longest losing run is 5 rather than 6. Neither number is a recommendation. Both are what the settled prices say.

Every figure was settled when the page was built. Nothing is simulated in your browser, and with scripting off the full ledger below is still the whole record.

This is a model, not a record of trades anyone placed. A 15-minute market does not open at 50 cents just because two outcomes exist: on this day the YES price opened at exactly 50 cents in 10 of the 73 windows, and the run buys at 50 cents anyway wherever 50 cents traded. Changing only that one assumption, and nothing else, moves the always-up result by $403.11 and takes the always-down deposit from $12,613.54 to $6,250.18. Real fills, the spread and the size of the book would move all of it again. Treat the gap between the two modes as the size of the guess, not as a margin of error.

73 of 73 windows · started 6:00 AM PT

12:00 AM PT close · $81,456.92 to beat · settled $81,631.08 · opened 33.0¢ on YES · ▲ Up

Always up

Max bankroll needed: $800.00at 2:30 PM PT
Max drawdown: $700.00at 10:30 AM PT
Longest losing run: 3windows

Always down

Max bankroll needed: $6,250.18at 10:00 AM PT
Max drawdown: $3,123.12at 9:45 AM PT
Longest losing run: 5windows

Always upAlways downBreak evenBitcoin, $80,447 to $81,795

Running total, window by window, 6:00 AM PT to midnight. The two runs share one scale, so the dip on one is the same size as the dip on the other. Bitcoin is in the band underneath, on its own scale, because a price near $81,795 and a profit of a few hundred dollars are not the same kind of number and putting them on one axis would make the smaller one look like whatever the drawing needed. The two share the clock and nothing else. Move your pointer across to read any window; the grid is half-hourly. The table below carries every figure.

Window

Window close (PT)	Settled	Always up					Always down					Kalshi ticker
Window close (PT)	Settled	Paid	Stake, all in	Result	P&L	Total	Paid	Stake, all in	Result	P&L	Total	Kalshi ticker
6:00 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$89.57	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$100.00	KXBTC15M-26SEP200900-00
6:15 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$179.14	49.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$300.00	KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15
6:30 AM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$79.14	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$72.94	KXBTC15M-26SEP200930-30
6:45 AM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$281.16	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$27.06	KXBTC15M-26SEP200945-45
7:00 AM	▲ Up	58.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$67.48	+$348.64	42.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$227.06	KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00
7:15 AM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$441.86	50.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$627.06	KXBTC15M-26SEP201015-15
7:30 AM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$341.86	52.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$688.44	+$61.38	KXBTC15M-26SEP201030-30
7:45 AM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$172.10	+$513.96	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$38.62	KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45
8:00 AM	▲ Up	47.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$105.15	+$619.11	53.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$238.62	KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00
8:15 AM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$712.33	50.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$638.62	KXBTC15M-26SEP201115-15
8:30 AM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$612.33	52.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$688.44	+$49.82	KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30
8:45 AM	▲ Up	44.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$237.39	+$849.71	56.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$50.18	KXBTC15M-26SEP201145-45
9:00 AM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$942.93	50.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$250.18	KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00
9:15 AM	▲ Up	43.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$123.63	+$1,066.56	57.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$650.18	KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15
9:30 AM	▲ Up	47.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$105.15	+$1,171.71	53.0¢	$800.00	Lost	−$800.00	−$1,450.18	KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30
9:45 AM	▲ Up	42.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$128.79	+$1,300.49	58.0¢	$1,600.00	Lost	−$1,600.00	−$3,050.18	KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45
10:00 AM	▼ Down	42.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,200.49	58.0¢	$3,200.00	Won	+$2,159.66	−$890.52	KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00
10:15 AM	▼ Down	56.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,000.49	44.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$118.68	−$771.84	KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15
10:30 AM	▼ Down	61.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$600.49	39.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$145.90	−$625.94	KXBTC15M-26SEP201330-30
10:45 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$799.99	Won	+$716.60	+$1,317.09	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$725.94	KXBTC15M-26SEP201345-45
11:00 AM	▼ Down	58.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,217.09	42.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$257.60	−$468.35	KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00
11:15 AM	▼ Down	54.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,017.09	46.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$109.46	−$358.89	KXBTC15M-26SEP201415-15
11:30 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$1,375.39	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$458.89	KXBTC15M-26SEP201430-30
11:45 AM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,275.39	49.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$194.08	−$264.81	KXBTC15M-26SEP201445-45
12:00 PM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,075.39	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	−$167.77	KXBTC15M-26SEP201500-00
12:15 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$1,433.68	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$267.77	KXBTC15M-26SEP201515-15
12:30 PM	▲ Up	44.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$118.68	+$1,552.36	56.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$467.77	KXBTC15M-26SEP201530-30
12:45 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$1,645.58	50.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$867.77	KXBTC15M-26SEP201545-45
1:00 PM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,545.58	48.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$808.12	−$59.64	KXBTC15M-26SEP201600-00
1:15 PM	▼ Down	57.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,345.58	43.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$123.63	+$63.99	KXBTC15M-26SEP201615-15
1:30 PM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$344.21	+$1,689.79	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$36.01	KXBTC15M-26SEP201630-30
1:45 PM	▼ Down	41.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,589.79	59.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$129.53	+$93.51	KXBTC15M-26SEP201645-45
2:00 PM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,389.79	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	+$190.55	KXBTC15M-26SEP201700-00
2:15 PM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$989.79	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	+$287.59	KXBTC15M-26SEP201715-15
2:30 PM	▲ Up	55.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$610.11	+$1,599.90	45.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$187.59	KXBTC15M-26SEP201730-30
2:45 PM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,499.90	49.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$194.08	+$381.67	KXBTC15M-26SEP201745-45
3:00 PM	▲ Up	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$1,710.20	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$281.67	KXBTC15M-26SEP201800-00
3:15 PM	▲ Up	54.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$79.41	+$1,789.61	46.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$81.67	KXBTC15M-26SEP201815-15
3:30 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,689.61	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$454.61	KXBTC15M-26SEP201830-30
3:45 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,489.61	47.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$105.15	+$559.76	KXBTC15M-26SEP201845-45
4:00 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$1,862.55	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$459.76	KXBTC15M-26SEP201900-00
4:15 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,762.55	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$670.06	KXBTC15M-26SEP201915-15
4:30 PM	▼ Down	42.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,562.55	58.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$67.48	+$737.54	KXBTC15M-26SEP201930-30
4:45 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$1,920.84	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$637.54	KXBTC15M-26SEP201945-45
5:00 PM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,820.84	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$839.57	KXBTC15M-26SEP202000-00
5:15 PM	▲ Up	53.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$165.32	+$1,986.16	47.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$739.57	KXBTC15M-26SEP202015-15
5:30 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$2,075.73	49.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$539.57	KXBTC15M-26SEP202030-30
5:45 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,975.73	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$912.51	KXBTC15M-26SEP202045-45
6:00 PM	▲ Up	59.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$129.53	+$2,105.26	41.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$812.51	KXBTC15M-26SEP202100-00
6:15 PM	▲ Up	44.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$118.68	+$2,223.94	56.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$612.51	KXBTC15M-26SEP202115-15
6:30 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,123.94	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$970.80	KXBTC15M-26SEP202130-30
6:45 PM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,923.94	48.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$101.00	+$1,071.80	KXBTC15M-26SEP202145-45
7:00 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$1,523.94	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$1,165.02	KXBTC15M-26SEP202200-00
7:15 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$799.99	Won	+$716.60	+$2,240.54	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,065.02	KXBTC15M-26SEP202215-15
7:30 PM	▲ Up	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	+$2,337.58	51.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$865.02	KXBTC15M-26SEP202230-30
7:45 PM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,237.58	52.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$344.21	+$1,209.23	KXBTC15M-26SEP202245-45
8:00 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$2,439.60	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,109.23	KXBTC15M-26SEP202300-00
8:15 PM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,339.60	49.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$194.08	+$1,303.31	KXBTC15M-26SEP202315-15
8:30 PM	▲ Up	62.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$114.21	+$2,453.81	38.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,203.31	KXBTC15M-26SEP202330-30
8:45 PM	▲ Up	64.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$52.41	+$2,506.22	36.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,003.31	KXBTC15M-26SEP202345-45
9:00 PM	▼ Down	59.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,406.22	41.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$536.90	+$1,540.21	KXBTC15M-26SEP210000-00
9:15 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,206.22	47.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$105.15	+$1,645.36	KXBTC15M-26SEP210015-15
9:30 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$404.06	+$2,610.28	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,545.36	KXBTC15M-26SEP210030-30
9:45 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$101.00	+$2,711.28	52.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,345.36	KXBTC15M-26SEP210045-45
10:00 PM	▼ Down	54.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,611.28	46.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$437.89	+$1,783.26	KXBTC15M-26SEP210100-00
10:15 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,411.28	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$1,876.48	KXBTC15M-26SEP210115-15
10:30 PM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$344.21	+$2,755.49	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,776.48	KXBTC15M-26SEP210130-30
10:45 PM	▲ Up	36.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$165.86	+$2,921.35	64.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,576.48	KXBTC15M-26SEP210145-45
11:00 PM	▼ Down	45.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,821.35	55.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$305.05	+$1,881.53	KXBTC15M-26SEP210200-00
11:15 PM	▲ Up	56.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$146.46	+$2,967.82	44.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,781.53	KXBTC15M-26SEP210215-15
11:30 PM	▲ Up	58.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$67.48	+$3,035.30	42.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,581.53	KXBTC15M-26SEP210230-30
11:45 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,935.30	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$1,939.82	KXBTC15M-26SEP210245-45
12:00 AM	▲ Up	33.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$378.91	+$3,314.21	67.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,839.82	KXBTC15M-26SEP210300-00

Oldest first, so the two runs read in the order they were placed. Paid is the price that window was entered at. Stake is the money that left the account, Kalshi's taker fee included, so a losing window loses exactly that and nothing more.

73 of 73 · 12:00 AM PT · BTC $81,631.08 · ▲ Up

Always up

Done

+$3,314.21$23,314.21

running totalof $20,000 started with

33.0¢$200.00incl $8.96 fee+$378.91

Always down

Done

+$1,839.82$21,839.82

running totalof $20,000 started with

67.0¢$100.00incl $2.26 fee−$100.00

Why some windows say sat out

A run that insists on paying 50 cents can only enter a window where 50 cents actually traded. In 8 of the 73 windows it never did. The price opened on one side of 50 and stayed there for the full fifteen minutes, so there was no 50-cent contract to buy. Those windows are sat out.

Sitting out is not a rule anyone chose. It is what falls out of fixing the entry price, and it is not free: the stake that was going to be placed carries to the next window, and if the run was in a losing streak the stake that carries is a doubled one. That is most of why the always-down run needed $13,000.00-odd at 50 cents and about half that at the open, where nothing is ever sat out.

5 where YES never fell to 50 cents
6:15 AM PTopened above 50 and stayed theretraded 51.0¢ to 99.9¢KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15
2:30 PM PTopened above 50 and stayed theretraded 53.0¢ to 99.9¢KXBTC15M-26SEP201730-30
8:30 PM PTopened above 50 and stayed theretraded 62.0¢ to 99.9¢KXBTC15M-26SEP202330-30
8:45 PM PTopened above 50 and stayed theretraded 62.0¢ to 99.9¢KXBTC15M-26SEP202345-45
11:30 PM PTopened above 50 and stayed theretraded 58.0¢ to 99.9¢KXBTC15M-26SEP210230-30
3 where YES never rose to 50 cents
7:30 AM PTopened below 50 and stayed theretraded 0.1¢ to 48.0¢KXBTC15M-26SEP201030-30
1:45 PM PTopened below 50 and stayed theretraded 0.1¢ to 41.0¢KXBTC15M-26SEP201645-45
7:45 PM PTopened below 50 and stayed theretraded 0.1¢ to 48.0¢KXBTC15M-26SEP202245-45

Where you could have stopped

The always-up run crossed these marks during the session. A stop rule is a number you pick before the day starts, not one you find afterwards.

+$500reached at 8:00 AM PT
+$1,000reached at 9:30 AM PT
+$2,000reached at 5:30 PM PT

The extremes: written off, then paid

In 11 windows the side that eventually won traded under 10 cents at some point inside the window. A contract at 4 cents is the market saying this one is finished. These are the windows where it was not. Nine of the 11 printed that low with four minutes or less on the clock.

Each card shows three real prints from that window: where the winning side opened, its cheapest print and the minute it happened, and where it closed. Nothing is drawn between them, because nothing between them is in the data. A print that lasted one minute is not a price anyone was promised.

6:45 AM▲ Up won

x27.8from 3.6¢ with 2 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $19.88 above the target. Target $80,487.24, settled $80,507.12.

KXBTC15M-26SEP200945-45

6:30 PM▼ Down won

x27.8from 3.6¢ with 6 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $196.51 below the target. Target $81,766.34, settled $81,569.83.

KXBTC15M-26SEP202130-30

3:45 PM▼ Down won

x25.0from 4.0¢ with 4 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $6.70 below the target. Target $81,131.25, settled $81,124.55.

KXBTC15M-26SEP201845-45

4:15 PM▼ Down won

x25.0from 4.0¢ with 1 minute left

Bitcoin finished $35.34 below the target. Target $81,192.45, settled $81,157.11.

KXBTC15M-26SEP201915-15

4:30 PM▼ Down won

x25.0from 4.0¢ with 4 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $5.66 below the target. Target $81,157.11, settled $81,151.45.

KXBTC15M-26SEP201930-30

10:30 AM▼ Down won

x14.9from 6.7¢ with 3 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $23.48 below the target. Target $81,180.59, settled $81,157.11.

KXBTC15M-26SEP201330-30

The comebacks

In 22 of the 73 windows, the side that eventually won traded under 25 cents at some point inside the window. In 11 of them it traded under 10 cents. The median cheapest print by the winning side was 36.0 cents. The deepest was 3.6¢, and it happened twice: the 6:45 AM window that settled up and the 6:30 PM window that settled down.

This is what the price did, not what anyone could reliably catch. The cheapest print is often one minute wide, because one minute is the resolution of the candles these rows come from. A price that existed for sixty seconds is not a price you can count on filling.

Window close (PT)	Side that won	Cheapest print	Multiple	Gain from that price	Kalshi ticker
10:00 PMextreme	▼ Down	8.1¢	x12.3	+1,134.6%	KXBTC15M-26SEP210100-00
9:30 PMextreme	▲ Up	8.8¢	x11.4	+1,036.4%	KXBTC15M-26SEP210030-30
8:15 PM	▼ Down	11.0¢	x9.1	+809.1%	KXBTC15M-26SEP202315-15
6:30 PMextreme	▼ Down	3.6¢	x27.8	+2,677.8%	KXBTC15M-26SEP202130-30
6:15 PM	▲ Up	21.0¢	x4.8	+376.2%	KXBTC15M-26SEP202115-15
4:30 PMextreme	▼ Down	4.0¢	x25.0	+2,400.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201930-30
4:15 PMextreme	▼ Down	4.0¢	x25.0	+2,400.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201915-15
3:45 PMextreme	▼ Down	4.0¢	x25.0	+2,400.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201845-45
3:15 PM	▲ Up	18.0¢	x5.6	+455.6%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201815-15
2:45 PM	▼ Down	20.0¢	x5.0	+400.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201745-45
2:00 PM	▼ Down	16.0¢	x6.2	+525.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201700-00
1:30 PMextreme	▲ Up	9.6¢	x10.4	+941.7%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201630-30
1:15 PM	▼ Down	16.0¢	x6.2	+525.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201615-15
1:00 PMextreme	▼ Down	7.0¢	x14.3	+1,328.6%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201600-00
12:30 PM	▲ Up	17.0¢	x5.9	+488.2%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201530-30
10:30 AMextreme	▼ Down	6.7¢	x14.9	+1,392.5%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201330-30
10:15 AM	▼ Down	10.0¢	x10.0	+900.0%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15
9:45 AM	▲ Up	22.0¢	x4.5	+354.5%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45
9:30 AMextreme	▲ Up	6.9¢	x14.5	+1,349.3%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30
9:15 AM	▲ Up	15.0¢	x6.7	+566.7%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15
8:30 AM	▼ Down	17.0¢	x5.9	+488.2%	KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30
6:45 AMextreme	▲ Up	3.6¢	x27.8	+2,677.8%	KXBTC15M-26SEP200945-45

Newest first. Scroll sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.

What those shapes look like

Eight price structures that turn up inside windows like these, drawn once so the words used elsewhere on the site point at something you can see.

Break, then hold
What it is
Price chops under one flat level for a while, pushes through it, then comes back down and stops right on that same level from above.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes beyond the level and the return trip holds there instead of slicing back through.
When it fails
It does not work when the return trip keeps going and closes back under the level, leaving the break as a one-candle event.
Break that did not stick
What it is
Price pushes a candle or two past the level to beat, then immediately closes back underneath and starts making lower lows.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes back on the old side of the level and the next candles stay there.
When it fails
It does not work when price reclaims the level within a few candles and carries on in the original direction.
A narrowing slide
What it is
Lower highs and lower lows, with the highs falling faster than the lows, so the whole range squeezes toward a point.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes outside the upper line of the wedge, usually with volume picking back up.
When it fails
It does not work when price leaves through the bottom of the wedge instead, or drifts sideways until the shape stops meaning anything.
Two lows, one line
What it is
Price makes a low, rallies, then comes back to almost exactly the same low, with the high between them forming a flat neckline.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes above the neckline rather than just touching it.
When it fails
It does not work when the second low prints below the first, or when price stalls under the neckline and rolls over again.
The range gets smaller
What it is
Each swing high is lower and each swing low is higher, so the candles get shorter and the whole band narrows candle by candle.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes outside the band, in either direction, with a bigger range than the ones before it.
When it fails
It does not work when the close outside is immediately given back and price settles straight back inside the band.
Quiet before the move
What it is
Candles get small and overlap each other in a narrow band while the volume bars underneath shrink for a stretch.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when volume comes back and a candle closes outside the quiet band on that bigger volume.
When it fails
It does not work when volume stays thin and price keeps drifting, or the one big candle has no follow-through behind it.
One flush, then a turn
What it is
A long run of falling candles ends in one oversized candle with a long lower wick that spikes far below everything around it.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when the next candles close back above the flush candle's own body rather than grinding along its low.
When it fails
It does not work when price sits on the flush low and then makes a new one, which turns the long wick into just another step down.
Step, pause, step
What it is
Price moves in one direction, goes quiet for a handful of candles in a tight band that leans slightly against the move, then moves again.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes out of the pause on the same side as the original move, with the trendline still intact.
When it fails
It does not work when the pause deepens through the trendline, which turns the step into a top rather than a rest.

These are shapes, not forecasts. Heuristics, not odds of winning.

Every settled window

All 73 session windows, newest first. Times are the window close in Pacific time. Prices are the last traded YES price in cents.

Window close (PT)	Result	To beat	Settled at	Difference	YES open	YES low	YES high	YES close	Volume	Kalshi ticker
12:00 AMSep 21	▲ Up	$81,456.92	$81,631.08	+$174.16	33.0¢	33.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,777,490	KXBTC15M-26SEP210300-00
11:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,795.39	$81,456.92	−$338.47	49.0¢	0.1¢	58.0¢	0.1¢	1,764,598	KXBTC15M-26SEP210245-45
11:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,615.34	$81,795.39	+$180.05	58.0¢	58.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,904,783	KXBTC15M-26SEP210230-30
11:15 PM	▲ Up	$81,522.70	$81,615.34	+$92.64	56.0¢	48.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,033,180	KXBTC15M-26SEP210215-15
11:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,613.96	$81,522.70	−$91.26	45.0¢	0.1¢	66.0¢	0.1¢	2,709,695	KXBTC15M-26SEP210200-00
10:45 PM	▲ Up	$81,595.01	$81,613.96	+$18.95	36.0¢	35.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,793,889	KXBTC15M-26SEP210145-45
10:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,308.41	$81,595.01	+$286.60	52.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,959,555	KXBTC15M-26SEP210130-30
10:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,372.28	$81,308.41	−$63.87	50.0¢	0.1¢	66.0¢	0.1¢	3,234,884	KXBTC15M-26SEP210115-15
10:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,385.61	$81,372.28	−$13.33	54.0¢	0.1¢	91.9¢	0.1¢	3,795,898	KXBTC15M-26SEP210100-00
9:45 PM	▲ Up	$81,285.19	$81,385.61	+$100.42	48.0¢	27.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,842,592	KXBTC15M-26SEP210045-45
9:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,275.54	$81,285.19	+$9.65	48.0¢	8.8¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,449,813	KXBTC15M-26SEP210030-30
9:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,404.89	$81,275.54	−$129.35	53.0¢	0.1¢	69.0¢	0.1¢	3,456,979	KXBTC15M-26SEP210015-15
9:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,433.13	$81,404.89	−$28.24	59.0¢	0.1¢	70.0¢	0.1¢	2,990,551	KXBTC15M-26SEP210000-00
8:45 PM	▲ Up	$81,371.43	$81,433.13	+$61.70	64.0¢	62.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,254,577	KXBTC15M-26SEP202345-45
8:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,263.97	$81,371.43	+$107.46	62.0¢	62.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,658,991	KXBTC15M-26SEP202330-30
8:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,287.87	$81,263.97	−$23.90	51.0¢	0.1¢	89.0¢	0.1¢	3,233,651	KXBTC15M-26SEP202315-15
8:00 PM	▲ Up	$81,243.54	$81,287.87	+$44.33	48.0¢	29.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,240,580	KXBTC15M-26SEP202300-00
7:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,412.21	$81,243.54	−$168.67	48.0¢	0.1¢	48.0¢	0.1¢	3,346,265	KXBTC15M-26SEP202245-45
7:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,317.50	$81,412.21	+$94.71	49.0¢	43.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,853,479	KXBTC15M-26SEP202230-30
7:15 PM	▲ Up	$80,985.46	$81,317.50	+$332.04	51.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,784,480	KXBTC15M-26SEP202215-15
7:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,444.32	$80,985.46	−$458.86	50.0¢	0.1¢	59.0¢	0.1¢	3,210,376	KXBTC15M-26SEP202200-00
6:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,569.83	$81,444.32	−$125.51	52.0¢	0.1¢	67.0¢	0.1¢	3,512,868	KXBTC15M-26SEP202145-45
6:30 PM	▼ Down	$81,766.34	$81,569.83	−$196.51	49.0¢	0.1¢	96.4¢	0.1¢	4,583,567	KXBTC15M-26SEP202130-30
6:15 PM	▲ Up	$81,609.63	$81,766.34	+$156.71	44.0¢	21.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,049,846	KXBTC15M-26SEP202115-15
6:00 PM	▲ Up	$81,577.98	$81,609.63	+$31.65	59.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,276,854	KXBTC15M-26SEP202100-00
5:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,731.13	$81,577.98	−$153.15	50.0¢	0.1¢	63.0¢	0.1¢	3,495,650	KXBTC15M-26SEP202045-45
5:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,649.14	$81,731.13	+$81.99	51.0¢	25.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,727,768	KXBTC15M-26SEP202030-30
5:15 PM	▲ Up	$81,158.49	$81,649.14	+$490.65	53.0¢	48.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,394,055	KXBTC15M-26SEP202015-15
5:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,245.52	$81,158.49	−$87.03	52.0¢	0.1¢	71.0¢	0.1¢	3,282,913	KXBTC15M-26SEP202000-00
4:45 PM	▲ Up	$81,151.45	$81,245.52	+$94.07	51.0¢	36.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	4,094,439	KXBTC15M-26SEP201945-45
4:30 PM	▼ Down	$81,157.11	$81,151.45	−$5.66	42.0¢	0.1¢	96.0¢	0.1¢	3,441,013	KXBTC15M-26SEP201930-30
4:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,192.45	$81,157.11	−$35.34	53.0¢	0.1¢	96.0¢	0.1¢	3,157,129	KXBTC15M-26SEP201915-15
4:00 PM	▲ Up	$81,124.55	$81,192.45	+$67.90	50.0¢	36.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,516,549	KXBTC15M-26SEP201900-00
3:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,131.25	$81,124.55	−$6.70	53.0¢	0.1¢	96.0¢	0.1¢	3,088,747	KXBTC15M-26SEP201845-45
3:30 PM	▼ Down	$81,254.98	$81,131.25	−$123.73	50.0¢	0.1¢	56.0¢	0.1¢	2,531,817	KXBTC15M-26SEP201830-30
3:15 PM	▲ Up	$80,906.02	$81,254.98	+$348.96	54.0¢	18.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,657,241	KXBTC15M-26SEP201815-15
3:00 PM	▲ Up	$80,787.61	$80,906.02	+$118.41	47.0¢	43.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,368,742	KXBTC15M-26SEP201800-00
2:45 PM	▼ Down	$80,850.66	$80,787.61	−$63.05	51.0¢	0.1¢	80.0¢	0.1¢	2,089,856	KXBTC15M-26SEP201745-45
2:30 PM	▲ Up	$80,736.03	$80,850.66	+$114.63	55.0¢	53.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,366,874	KXBTC15M-26SEP201730-30
2:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,079.08	$80,736.03	−$343.05	51.0¢	0.1¢	53.0¢	0.1¢	3,320,403	KXBTC15M-26SEP201715-15
2:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,122.74	$81,079.08	−$43.66	51.0¢	0.1¢	84.0¢	0.1¢	2,797,591	KXBTC15M-26SEP201700-00
1:45 PM	▼ Down	$81,196.35	$81,122.74	−$73.61	41.0¢	0.1¢	41.0¢	0.1¢	2,452,478	KXBTC15M-26SEP201645-45
1:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,134.79	$81,196.35	+$61.56	52.0¢	9.6¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,893,876	KXBTC15M-26SEP201630-30
1:15 PM	▼ Down	$81,155.39	$81,134.79	−$20.60	57.0¢	0.1¢	84.0¢	0.1¢	2,506,858	KXBTC15M-26SEP201615-15
1:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,209.88	$81,155.39	−$54.49	52.0¢	0.1¢	93.0¢	0.1¢	3,088,499	KXBTC15M-26SEP201600-00
12:45 PM	▲ Up	$81,094.00	$81,209.88	+$115.88	50.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,271,948	KXBTC15M-26SEP201545-45
12:30 PM	▲ Up	$81,079.48	$81,094.00	+$14.52	44.0¢	17.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,076,916	KXBTC15M-26SEP201530-30
12:15 PM	▲ Up	$81,024.78	$81,079.48	+$54.70	51.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,117,709	KXBTC15M-26SEP201515-15
12:00 PM	▼ Down	$81,194.61	$81,024.78	−$169.83	51.0¢	0.1¢	58.0¢	0.1¢	2,038,693	KXBTC15M-26SEP201500-00
11:45 AM	▼ Down	$81,244.64	$81,194.61	−$50.03	51.0¢	0.1¢	69.0¢	0.1¢	2,164,772	KXBTC15M-26SEP201445-45
11:30 AM	▲ Up	$81,083.12	$81,244.64	+$161.52	51.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,307,501	KXBTC15M-26SEP201430-30
11:15 AM	▼ Down	$81,118.79	$81,083.12	−$35.67	54.0¢	0.1¢	75.0¢	0.1¢	2,316,321	KXBTC15M-26SEP201415-15
11:00 AM	▼ Down	$81,352.42	$81,118.79	−$233.63	58.0¢	0.1¢	63.0¢	0.1¢	2,655,581	KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00
10:45 AM	▲ Up	$81,157.11	$81,352.42	+$195.31	51.0¢	47.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,402,025	KXBTC15M-26SEP201345-45
10:30 AM	▼ Down	$81,180.59	$81,157.11	−$23.48	61.0¢	0.1¢	93.3¢	0.1¢	2,570,333	KXBTC15M-26SEP201330-30
10:15 AM	▼ Down	$81,287.03	$81,180.59	−$106.44	56.0¢	0.1¢	90.0¢	0.1¢	2,948,814	KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15
10:00 AM	▼ Down	$81,389.71	$81,287.03	−$102.68	42.0¢	0.1¢	55.0¢	0.1¢	2,666,501	KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00
9:45 AM	▲ Up	$81,207.23	$81,389.71	+$182.48	42.0¢	22.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,252,985	KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45
9:30 AM	▲ Up	$81,147.20	$81,207.23	+$60.03	47.0¢	6.9¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,363,571	KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30
9:15 AM	▲ Up	$80,898.46	$81,147.20	+$248.74	43.0¢	15.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,638,133	KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15
9:00 AM	▲ Up	$80,813.17	$80,898.46	+$85.29	50.0¢	45.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,970,932	KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00
8:45 AM	▲ Up	$80,654.31	$80,813.17	+$158.86	44.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,240,206	KXBTC15M-26SEP201145-45
8:30 AM	▼ Down	$80,741.20	$80,654.31	−$86.89	48.0¢	0.1¢	83.0¢	0.1¢	2,189,239	KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30
8:15 AM	▲ Up	$80,642.00	$80,741.20	+$99.20	50.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,935,723	KXBTC15M-26SEP201115-15
8:00 AM	▲ Up	$80,607.39	$80,642.00	+$34.61	47.0¢	35.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,839,902	KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00
7:45 AM	▲ Up	$80,499.10	$80,607.39	+$108.29	52.0¢	37.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,652,912	KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45
7:30 AM	▼ Down	$80,562.57	$80,499.10	−$63.47	48.0¢	0.1¢	48.0¢	0.1¢	1,982,541	KXBTC15M-26SEP201030-30
7:15 AM	▲ Up	$80,529.41	$80,562.57	+$33.16	50.0¢	49.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,834,227	KXBTC15M-26SEP201015-15
7:00 AM	▲ Up	$80,507.12	$80,529.41	+$22.29	58.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,610,222	KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00
6:45 AM	▲ Up	$80,487.24	$80,507.12	+$19.88	48.0¢	3.6¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,816,873	KXBTC15M-26SEP200945-45
6:30 AM	▼ Down	$80,536.99	$80,487.24	−$49.75	50.0¢	0.1¢	55.0¢	0.1¢	1,802,960	KXBTC15M-26SEP200930-30
6:15 AM	▲ Up	$80,446.91	$80,536.99	+$90.08	51.0¢	51.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,372,300	KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15
6:00 AM	▲ Up	$80,334.90	$80,446.91	+$112.01	51.0¢	47.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,424,720	KXBTC15M-26SEP200900-00

All 73 windows are inside this table. Scroll it down for the rest of the day, and sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.

Before you trade one of these

A 15-minute contract is a short-term bet. It settles one way or the other within minutes of the window closing, and there is nothing to do with it after that. Kalshi's perpetual contracts work differently: they do not expire, so a position can be held and sold later. That is a different risk shape, not a safer one. A perpetual carries funding and leverage, and a position in one can be closed against you long before your view on the price plays out. Read what a perpetual actually is before you decide which of the two you are choosing.

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How this page was made

Every number here comes from Kalshi's public API: the settled markets in series KXBTC15M and their one-minute candlesticks. The rows were fetched on September 21, 2026 at 17:17 UTC. Kalshi can revise a settlement for seven days after it posts, so a value on this page can still change until September 28, 2026. Every row carries its Kalshi ticker so you can check it against the exchange yourself.

Prices are the last traded YES price in cents, taken from the candle price series rather than the resting bid, because a bid that nobody hit is not a price anything traded at. KXBTC15M uses a deci-cent ladder, so a price below one cent is a real price and not a rounding artifact. Volume is the figure Kalshi reports for the window.

The two curves above are arithmetic on those settled results. Nobody placed these trades. Each played window buys one side at 50 cents, so $100.00 buys 200 contracts. A winning window returns the stake again and a losing window costs it, and both carry Kalshi's taker fee, which is ceil(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price) * 100) / 100, because the exchange bills that fee when an order fills rather than when it settles. A window counts as played only when 50 cents traded inside its low to high range. A real fill would also pay the spread, which these curves do not, so treat them as the friendly version.

21+. Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing on this page is financial or betting advice.

Why Brito was the right side

Set the sell target first

1m to 1W, one desk

Cash out on purpose

Write for the desk

Bitcoin 15-minute results: September 20, 2026

The day in counts

Betting one side all day, $100 base, doubling after a loss

Always up

Always down

Both runs, side by side

Always up

Always down

Always up

Always down

Why some windows say sat out

Where you could have stopped

The extremes: written off, then paid

The comebacks

What those shapes look like

Break, then hold

Break that did not stick

A narrowing slide

Two lows, one line

The range gets smaller

Quiet before the move

One flush, then a turn

Step, pause, step

Every settled window

Before you trade one of these

How this page was made

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