XRP prediction markets

What the XRP 15-minute contract asks

Not where XRP is going. When the window opens, Kalshi fixes a target from its settlement index; fifteen minutes later it reads the index again, and if the closing value is at least the target the contract resolves yes, paying $1. The 15-minute crypto markets we have read type that comparison as at-or-above, which is why a window that ends dead flat resolves yes rather than no. The mechanics shared by every coin, including how the index average is taken, are on the crypto hub.

The most recent XRP market object we hold closed on 2026-09-09 at 15:00 UTC with floor_strike 1.4264. The series was confirmed open again on 2026-09-19, and on 2026-09-20 Kalshi’s series listing still showed it at a fifteen-minute frequency.

Four decimals, and why the desk reads them off the market

Every XRP market we have read declares round_digits: "4", so a target reads like $1.4264, not $1.43. On a coin priced near a dollar and a half the fourth decimal is a hundredth of a cent, and it is the whole contest: one tenth of a percent of that target is about $0.0014. Our desk does not assume four. It reads the declared count off each market as it opens and prints the target, the gap and the settled results at exactly that precision.

When the windows open and close

Every quarter hour: on the hour and at :15, :30 and :45, around the clock. XRP has no clock of its own. Every crypto event we fetched on 2026-09-20 closed on the same quarter hour, so the XRP window and the Bitcoin window expire in the same instant and the next targets are set in that instant too.

What settles it

CF Benchmarks’ XRPUSDRTI real-time index, the index named in the XRP market object we hold, not the last trade on any one exchange. Our chart draws Coinbase XRP-USD candles, and Coinbase is one of the exchanges feeding that index, so the two track closely without being the same number. Read the target off Kalshi. An index value is an average, so a chart that looks decided can still settle the other way.

What we have measured, with the date

The window that closed at 15:00 UTC on 2026-09-09 showed volume_fp 8,653.93 contracts and open_interest_fp 3,099.81. That is one window on one day, not an average and not a description of the market today. We print the field name and the date with every liquidity number, and we do not call a market deep or thin on the strength of one figure.

There is no XRP hourly desk

We run a Bitcoin hourly desk and no XRP one. Kalshi’s series listing carries hourly-shaped XRP series, but we have not watched one trade, and we do not build a page for a contract we have not seen. Until we do, the 15-minute desk is the only XRP page here.