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Week of Sep 14, 2026 · Sep 14 to 20, 2026

Pick of the week, results and grades

Every prediction market pick locked this week, in the order the record keeps: settled wins first, then open plans, then settled misses by how far the price ran past the entry, so a target missed sits above a plain miss. Every pick stays on the record.

Picks4
Graded42 won, 1 target missed, 1 missed
Hit rate50.0%won as written; a target missed counts as a miss
Ran green75.0%peak at least 20% above entry, sold there or not
Net on $100 a pick−$21.60average, both fees in

Author of the week

Ice-MaidenWriter

Author of the week

+$27.49 net on $100 a pick over 1 graded pick (1 won)

Best net over the week among authors with at least one graded pick. One week is a coin toss, not a track record.

The record

Every pick, graded or open

Entry, target and fallback as posted; exit, peak and net on $100 after both Kalshi fee legs. Peak is the best price that traded after the entry, whether or not anyone sold there. A loss whose peak ran at least 20% above the entry is tagged target missed: it counts as a miss in the hit rate and as green in Ran green.

  1. Win
    Exclusive TunaWriter

    YES Los Angeles

    WNBA · Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

    Graded: win. Written to hold, held to settlement at 100¢, both fees in.

    Entry
    52¢
    Target
    —
    Fallback
    Hold
    Exit
    Settled 100¢
    Peak
    99¢ (+90.4%)
    Net on $100
    +$86.03
  2. Win
    Ice-MaidenWriter

    YES Los Angeles

    WNBA · Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

    Graded: win. The 70¢ sell order filled, Sep 20, 7:40 PM ET: 186 contracts sold, both Kalshi fee legs in.

    Entry
    52¢
    Target
    70¢
    Fallback
    Hold
    Exit
    70¢ fill
    Peak
    99¢ (+90.4%)
    Net on $100
    +$27.49
  3. Target missed
    Exclusive TunaWriter

    YES Chikadze

    UFC · UFC 331: Chikadze vs Brito

    Target missed, ran +40.9%: sellable for +$27.15 on $100, the 35¢ order never traded, held to $0. Booked at −$100.00 with both fees in, and kept on the record.

    Entry
    22¢
    Target
    35¢
    Fallback
    Hold
    Exit
    Settled $0
    Peak
    31¢ (+40.9%)
    Net on $100
    −$100.00
  4. Miss
    Diamond PantherWriter

    YES Boston

    MLB · Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

    Graded: miss, 15¢ never traded. The price peaked at 11¢, the order never filled and the contracts settled at $0. Booked at −$99.93 on $100 with both fees in, and kept on the record.

    Entry
    10¢
    Target
    15¢
    Fallback
    Hold
    Exit
    Settled $0
    Peak
    11¢ (+10.0%)
    Net on $100
    −$99.93

Fees: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, paid on the buy and again on the sell. A pick held to settlement pays one fee. How we lock and grade

21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Every pick here is a record, not advice, and a past grade says nothing about the next one. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling