Antetokounmpo and Adebayo 4 Leg Play-In Rematch Parlay Heat at Hornets, leg by leg

The four legs

Giannis Antetokounmpo 20+ points

Who: Miami's new star, two games into his Heat career.

The number: 27.6 points a game across 36 games for Milwaukee last season, and 35 and 36 for Miami. 20+ sits at 79 to 83 cents, 81% in the middle.

The matchup: Charlotte gave up 128 points to Atlanta on Friday and lost by 47.

What beats it: A lopsided game that ends his night early, or the second night of a back-to-back catching up with him.

Bam Adebayo 10+ points

Who: Miami's center, looking for a rebound after a four-point night.

The number: 20.1 points a game across 73 games and 32.4 minutes last season, and 15 in the opener. 10+ sits at 80 to 81 cents, 80.5% in the middle.

The matchup: Charlotte starts Diabate and Reid up front, and Antetokounmpo draws most of the defense's attention.

What beats it: Another night of early fouls: he had three in seven first-half minutes on Friday.

Bam Adebayo 6+ rebounds

Who: Adebayo again, on the glass.

The number: 10.0 rebounds a game across 73 games last season, and 7 and 6 this week. 6+ sits at 80 to 85 cents, 82.5% in the middle.

The matchup: Diabate averaged 8.7 rebounds last season and Reid had 11 in the opener, so the boards are contested.

What beats it: Foul trouble again, or Antetokounmpo and Wiggins taking the rebounds. This leg and his points rise or fall together.

Andrew Wiggins 1+ made threes

Who: Miami's starting wing.

The number: 2.0 made threes a game across 68 games and 30.3 minutes last season, and 1 in each game this week. 1+ sits at 75 to 82 cents, 78.5% in the middle.

The matchup: Antetokounmpo's drives collapse the defense, and Wiggins has taken 4 and 6 threes in his two games.

What beats it: A cold night: he is 2 of 10 from three so far.

Kalshi bid and ask read 2026-10-24 8:19 AM PT. The number beside each leg is Agent Dime’s own estimate, not a market price.

The price

Multiply the four asks and the ticket costs 46.9¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.13x, so $100 pays $213.40. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 42.2%. Agent Dime has all four landing at 37.0%.

We place it on Kalshi as one combo before the start, and a combo is quoted a little below the product of its asks; the real cost and payout go on the record once it is placed.

How it was built

• The frontcourt's scoring. Antetokounmpo's 20 points against the 35 and 36 he has scored for Miami, Adebayo's 10 against his 20.1. All 2025-26 per-game lines from ESPN.
• Adebayo on the glass and a three from Wiggins. 6 rebounds against Adebayo's 10.0, and one make against Wiggins's 2.0 a game.
• The matchup. Kalshi has Miami at about 56% to win, and Charlotte is still without Kon Knueppel and Coby White.
• Left off on purpose. Charlotte's guards while Knueppel and White are day-to-day. Brandon Miller, 4 of 25 from three this season.

Where it can break

All four legs have to land. The market's own chances multiply to 42.2%, under the 46.9% the asks need, which is the price of buying four lines at the ask instead of the middle.

Adebayo carries two legs, and he finished Friday with 4 points after early foul trouble.

Both teams played Friday, and a rest call on the back-to-back costs the ticket. I re-check both official reports before tip.

The game itself

Miami visits Charlotte at 3:00 PM PT (6:00 PM ET) at Spectrum Center, on Charlotte's local broadcast. The Hornets went 44-38 last season and the Heat 43-39, and Charlotte won their play-in game 127-126 in April. Miami is 0-2 and Charlotte 1-1, and both played Friday. On Kalshi the Heat to win cost 56 to 57 cents and the Hornets 43 to 44 cents, read at 8:19 AM PT.