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Gambling news · WNBA · Analysis
Kick gambling streamer TOGI bets big on the Las Vegas Aces to win the 2026 WNBA title
He also promised a $50k tip if they win it all. What his price means, and the same position on Kalshi. See his post on X.
The short version
TOGI, a Kick gambling streamer, posted a Shuffle.com slip on X on Sep 25, 2026 backing the Las Vegas Aces to win the 2026 WNBA title at 7.45, with a $134,250 stake placed on Sep 24, according to the slip. The Aces open the 2026 WNBA playoffs against the Indiana Fever on Sunday, Sep 27, as the No. 3 seed (as of Sep 25), in a best-of-three first round. On Kalshi, Aces YES was 15¢ at 2:59 PM PT on Sep 25, about a 15% chance, against the 13.42% that the slip's 7.45 implies.
Ice-Maiden Desk writer, WNBA
Aces YES on Kalshi
15¢
to buy, read 2:59 PM PT
The slip's price
7.45
13.42%, margin included
Seed and record
No. 3
31-13, as of Sep 25
Next game
Sun, Sep 27
Game 1 vs Indiana, 1 PM PT
The slip, as posted
TOGI streams on Kick, where slots and casino is his channel's top category.2 At 10:15 AM PT, Sep 25, 2026, he posted a championship slip on the Aces to @ShaneStoffer on X, with a promise: “If the aces win it all, I'll tip one persons account $50k.”1
The post time is confirmed by the post's own ID, not only by our screenshot. Everything else comes from our capture of the post on Sep 25, 2026, when it showed 24.5K views, because X doesn't allow automated reading. Here is the slip, as text.
| Book | Shuffle.com |
|---|---|
| Marketas printed on the slip | WNBA - Winner |
| Selection | Las Vegas Aces |
| Pricedecimal odds | 7.45 |
| Stakeshown beside a coin icon, currency not named | $134,250.00 |
| Estimated payout134,250 × 7.45, which checks to the cent | $1,000,162.50 |
| Placedthe slip gives no time zone | September 24, 2026 (12:45 AM) |
The slip's numbers are internally consistent. We can't see the account behind it, and this column says nothing about it beyond what the slip shows.
The post
WNBA is my favorite sport to bet on
— TOGI (@ShaneStoffer) September 25, 2026
If the aces win it all, I'll tip one persons account $50k
Pressing it loads X's embed script and shows the post as X displays it, including the slip image. Nothing from X loads until you do.
Follow TOGI
- TOGI on Kick, where he streams live
- TOGI on YouTube, his video channel
- @ShaneStoffer on X, where this post went up
His streams include gambling content.
What 7.45 means
7.45 is a decimal price. Every $1 staked comes back as $7.45 if the Aces win the title, stake included. Flip it and you get the chance the price is charging for: 1 ÷ 7.45 = 13.42%.
That 13.42% is a sportsbook's price, and a sportsbook builds its margin into every price it posts. So it isn't the book's honest estimate of the Aces' chances. It is the price the book was willing to sell them at. You can't pull the margin out of a single slip, because you'd need every team's price from the same board at the same minute. We don't have those, so we won't guess at it.
| Stake at 7.45 | $134,250.00 |
|---|---|
| Chance the price implies1 ÷ 7.45, with the book's margin inside it | 13.42% |
| If the Aces win the title$1,000,162.50 back, minus the stake | +$865,912.50 |
| If they don'tA futures slip has no exit. This is the whole outcome. | −$134,250.00 |
Where the Aces actually stand
- 31-13 and the No. 3 seed, as of Sep 25. They closed the regular season with a 100–82 win over Phoenix on
Thursday, two days after beating the Sparks at home.6
CBS Sports frames the playoffs as the start of their title defense.4
Our desk had both ends of that game. Exclusive Tuna bought YES Los Angeles at 7¢ and cashed early at 14¢, +$76.44 on $100, fees counted. Ice-Maiden bought Las Vegas to win by more than 12.5 at 65¢ and cashed early at 80¢, +$18.43 on $100, fees counted. The Aces won 89–79, so both contracts settled at $0, and both calls still cashed, because each sell was written before tip-off. That is this whole column in one game: a contract can be sold before the end, and a slip can't. Every fill and the final are on the Sparks at Aces results, and the plans as posted are on the Sparks at Aces game page.
WinWNBALos Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas AcesYES Los Angeles
7¢14¢
Underdog 7¢+$76.44 on $100+76.4% net, fees countedPeak 16¢What happened
Sell target raised from 10c to 14c on Tue, Sep 22 at 2:10 PM PT, while the position was still open at the 7c entry. Amendment is on the page. Target filled at 2026-09-23T02:14:00Z; peak 16c at 2026-09-23T02:14:00Z. A hold would have settled at $0.
Posted Sep 22, 1:43 PM PTExclusive Tuna's full record
Lockedlocked 5 hours 17 minutes before the startKalshi marketKXWNBAGAME-26SEP22LALV-LAWinWNBALos Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas AcesYES Las Vegas wins by over 12.5
65¢80¢
+$18.43 on $100+18.5% net, fees countedPeak 89¢What happened
Target filled at 2026-09-23T02:22:00Z; peak 89c at 2026-09-23T03:30:00Z. A hold would have settled at $0.
Posted Sep 22, 1:43 PM PTIce-Maiden's full record
Lockedlocked 5 hours 17 minutes before the startKalshi marketKXWNBASPREAD-26SEP22LALV-LV13 - First round: No. 6 Indiana, best of three. Game 1 is Sunday, Sep 27 in Las Vegas at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) on ABC. Game 2 is Tuesday, Sep 29 in Indiana at 6:30 p.m. ET on Prime. A Game 3, if needed, is back in Las Vegas.4,6
- Then a best-of-five semifinal starting Sunday, Oct 4, and a best-of-seven Finals: Game 1 on Saturday, Oct 17, and a Game 7, if it gets that far, on Saturday, Oct 31.4,5
- Nine more wins. Two, then three, then four. That's what “win it all” means from here, across three series against playoff teams.
The slip lists Oct 30, 2026 7:00 PM. That isn't a date on the published Finals calendar, and the slip doesn't say what it refers to. Every open WNBA game market is on our WNBA page.
The same call on Kalshi
Kalshi lists the same question as a contract: Will Las Vegas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship? A YES contract pays $1.00 if they do and $0 if they don't. When we read it, at 2:59 PM PT on Friday, Sep 25, YES was 15¢ to buy.7 Read as a probability, the crowd says 15%.
Kalshi charges a fee when you buy: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Holding to settlement costs nothing more.8 Here is the slip's stake, spent on YES at 15¢, with the fee inside the budget.
| Buy 844,738 YES at 15¢whole contracts only | $126,710.70 |
|---|---|
| Entry fee0.07 × 844,738 × 0.15 × 0.85, rounded up | $7,539.29 |
| Total outa cent under the slip's stake | $134,249.99 |
| If the Aces win the title844,738 × $1.00 = $844,738.00, minus the cost | +$710,488.01 |
| If they don'tOnly if you hold to the end. See the next section. | −$134,249.99 |
Held to the finish, the slip pays more. $1,000,162.50 against $844,738.00, so on price alone, at these two reads, the slip is the better number by $155,424.50. The fee is part of it: at 15¢, each contract really costs about 15.89¢ once the fee is in, which works out like decimal odds of 6.29 against the slip's 7.45.
Two honest caveats. The prices come from different moments: the slip was placed early on Sep 24 and our Kalshi read is from Friday afternoon, with an Aces win over Phoenix in between. And at this size the Kalshi figure is a best case. Far less than $134,250.00 of contracts was on offer at 15¢ when we read it, so an order that big would have pushed the price up as it filled, and the real payout would be lower still.
What a contract can do that a slip can't
A futures slip is a ticket to one moment. The Finals end and it's worth everything or nothing. A Kalshi contract trades every day until then, and you can sell it before the end at whatever it's worth that day.
That's the whole difference, and it's why every plan on this site is written with an exit, like Ice-Maiden's Sparks plan against Portland, which had its sell target posted before tip-off. Her full record is public, misses included. Here is how it works on 100 contracts, the unit the rest of the site teaches in. The later prices below are hypothetical. We picked round numbers to show the mechanics. We are not saying the Aces' price will reach 30¢ or fall to 5¢.
| Buy 100 YES Aces at 15¢ | $15.00 |
|---|---|
| Entry fee0.07 × 100 × 0.15 × 0.85 = $0.8925, rounded up | $0.90 |
| CostWhat leaves the account when the buy fills | $15.90 |
| Break-even chanceWhy 15¢ is not the number that matters | 15.90% |
| Hypothetical: the price reaches 30¢ and a resting sell fills$30.00 back, minus a $0.37 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on this market | +$13.73 |
| Hypothetical: the price falls to 5¢ and you sell$4.66 back after a $0.34 fee, instead of riding it to $0.00 | −$11.24 |
| Held, and the Aces winSettles at $1.00 × 100 = $100.00, minus the cost | +$84.10 |
| Held, and they don'tSettles at $0. The most 100 contracts can lose. | −$15.90 |
The two hypothetical rows are the point. If the Aces' price climbs during the playoffs, a contract can be cashed early without them winning the whole thing. If it drops, you can take $4.66 back on 100 contracts instead of watching it go to $0.00. A slip can do neither. It pays at the end or it doesn't.
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule.8 How the fee works · Taking profits
What your stake buys on Kalshi
Pick a stake and the slip works out how many contracts it buys at 15¢, what the entry fee takes, and what each outcome pays, including the hypothetical 30¢ sell. Same fee formula as the table above.
- Contracts
- 629
- Contracts cost
- $94.35
- Entry fee
- $5.62
- Total out
- $99.97
- If a 30¢ sell fills (hypothetical)
- +$86.41
- If it holds and the Aces win
- +$529.03
- If it holds and they don't
- −$99.97
A stake rarely divides evenly into whole contracts, so a few cents are left over. The fee rows assume Kalshi's taker rate going in and its maker rate on a resting sell order. It's the same fee formula at your size, not a recommendation to trade it.
What the $50k tip is worth
It's a generous offer. Plenty of people will read it as a lottery ticket, so here's what it's worth in dollars.
It only pays if the Aces win the title, and the slip's own price puts that at 13.42%. Across everyone put together, that makes the tip worth $50,000 × 13.42% = $6,711.41, what traders call its expected value. That's the price talking, not our forecast.
And it goes to one person. The post doesn't say how that person is picked or when, so we can't tell anyone their chances. If 1,000 people had an equal shot, each one's share would be $6.71. At 10,000 people it's 67 cents.
None of that is a knock on the offer. A tip isn't an investment and isn't meant to be one. If the Aces win, $50,000 is real money to the one person who gets it. Spread across everyone hoping to be that person, it's worth a lot less.
What we couldn't check
- The post itself. X blocks automated reading. The post time is confirmed from the post's ID; everything else comes from our capture on Sep 25, 2026.
- The currency. The stake and payout sit beside a coin icon, and the slip doesn't name a currency. We print them as dollar figures because that's how they're printed.
- Where it was placed. Shuffle.com's terms name its operator as Natural Nine B.V. of Willemstad, Curaçao, licensed by the Curaçao Gaming Authority, and list the United States among the places it doesn't serve.9 That's a fact about Shuffle's terms. The slip doesn't show where it was placed, and we aren't suggesting anything about that.
- The purple “S” badge. We couldn't confirm what it means. In a post on July 5, 2024, TOGI said he was not sponsored by any casino.3 We found nothing newer either way, so this column doesn't suggest a sponsorship.
- How the $50k recipient is chosen. The post doesn't say.
Questions about TOGI's Aces bet
How much did TOGI bet on the Aces?
The slip TOGI posted shows a stake of $134,250.00 on the Las Vegas Aces to win the 2026 WNBA title at decimal odds of 7.45, placed on Shuffle.com on September 24, 2026. The slip's estimated payout is $1,000,162.50 (134,250 × 7.45). The figures sit beside a coin icon, and the slip doesn't name a currency.
What are the Aces' odds to win the 2026 WNBA title?
The slip's price of 7.45 implies 13.42% (1 ÷ 7.45), with the sportsbook's margin built in. On Kalshi, a YES contract on the Aces winning the title was 15¢ to buy (read Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 2:59 PM PT), which reads as about a 15% chance. Both are dated reads, and prices move.
Who is TOGI?
TOGI is a gambling streamer on Kick, where slots and casino is the channel's top category. He posts on X and YouTube as @ShaneStoffer.
Is TOGI sponsored by Shuffle?
Not that we could confirm. We don't know what the purple “S” badge on his X account means. In a post on July 5, 2024, TOGI said he was not sponsored by any casino, and we found nothing newer either way. This page doesn't suggest that he is or isn't sponsored.
Is Shuffle available in the US?
Shuffle's own terms of service (version 2.0, September 2026) list the United States of America among the Prohibited Jurisdictions, whose residents and people located there are not permitted to access the site. That is what the terms say, not a legal conclusion.
Can you trade the WNBA champion on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi lists the 2026 champion as the KXWNBA market, and the Aces contract, KXWNBA-26-LV, pays $1.00 if Las Vegas wins the title. PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
What is TOGI's $50k tip?
The post says that if the Aces win it all, TOGI will tip one person's account $50,000. It doesn't say how that person is chosen. At the 13.42% chance the slip's price implies, the tip's expected value across everyone is $6,711.41. That's the price talking, not a forecast.
Sources
Every figure on this page came from one of these, read on Friday, Sep 25, 2026. The Kalshi price was read at 2:59 PM Pacific. Live prices change after that.
- The post on X by @ShaneStoffer, 10:15 AM PT, Sep 25, 2026 (the time decoded from the post's own ID), captured by us on Sep 25, 2026 at 24.5K views. X refused an automated re-read. x.com
- TOGI's Kick channel, Streams Charts' Kick channel stats (which list slots and casino as its top category) and his YouTube channel, TOGI (@ShaneStoffer). Read Sep 25, 2026. kick.com · streamscharts.com · youtube.com
- TOGI's post on X of July 5, 2024 (the date decoded from the post's ID), saying he was not sponsored by any casino. x.com
- CBS Sports, Lindsay Gibbs, 2026 WNBA playoffs bracket and schedule, Sep 25, 2026, 10:25 AM ET: seeds, pairings, first-round times and the full semifinal and Finals calendar. cbssports.com
- NBC Sports, Syd Pierre, 2026 WNBA playoffs schedule, Sep 25, 2026: round formats, Oct 4 and Oct 17 start dates. nbcsports.com
- Dice City Sports via Yardbarker, Mark Hebert, Sep 25, 2026, 8:20 AM ET: 31–13 final record, No. 3 seed, the Phoenix result, the 1-1-1 first-round format and venues. yardbarker.com
- Kalshi public markets API, market KXWNBA-26-LV, read Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 2:59 PM PT: the YES price to buy and the market's rules. external-api.kalshi.com
- Kalshi fee schedule, taker and maker formulas. kalshi.com
- Shuffle.com Terms of Service, version 2.0, September 2026: operator, licence and prohibited jurisdictions. shuffle.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Shuffle, Kick, X or the WNBA, and has no connection to the account that posted the slip. The slip is shown as text, not as an image. Ice-Maiden is a PM Countdown desk pen name.
Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.