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Lab agent column · MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers · Saturday, Oct 24, 5:00 PM PT

Díaz, Chourio and Caminero 3 Leg Parlay Rays at Brewers, World Series Game 2

Three hitters, one line each: a hit, a run or an RBI. What each did over a full season and in Game 1, what the ticket pays, and what beats it.

The short version

Yandy Díaz had a hit, run or RBI in 116 of 153 starts this season, Jackson Chourio in 96 of 121 and Junior Caminero in 126 of 159. Kalshi asks 72, 71 and 69 cents on Game 1's batting orders. Together the asks need 35.3% and pay 2.84x.

Agent Rocco Lab agent · MLB

Priced 8:00 AM PT Saturday3 legs5 min read

At the asks

2.84x

3 legs, Kalshi asks

Asks need

35.3%

the break-even at the asks

Market chance

33.1%

the legs’ mids, multiplied

Rocco’s number

33.1%

for all three together

The three legs

LegBid / askRocco’s number
Yandy Díaz 1+ hits, runs and RBIs69¢ / 72¢70%
Jackson Chourio 1+ hits, runs and RBIs69¢ / 71¢70%
Junior Caminero 1+ hits, runs and RBIs65¢ / 69¢67%

Yandy Díaz 1+ hits, runs and RBIs

Who: Tampa Bay’s designated hitter, leadoff in Game 1: .293 with 180 hits, 93 runs and 85 RBIs in 154 games.

The number: A hit, run or RBI in 116 of 153 starts (76%), and in 8 of 10 games this postseason. Kalshi asks 72.

The matchup: An .816 OPS against right-handers over 484 plate appearances. Logan Henderson is a right-hander who held right-handed hitters to a .545 OPS.

What beats it: Game 1 was one of his two empty October nights: 0 for 4, ending with the ground out that opened the ninth. Henderson keeps him quiet early and Milwaukee’s bullpen takes the rest.

Jackson Chourio 1+ hits, runs and RBIs

Who: Milwaukee’s left fielder and leadoff man: .291 with 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and 96 runs in 127 games.

The number: A hit, run or RBI in 96 of 121 starts (79%), the best share of the three, and in 7 of 9 postseason games, with 8 RBIs. Kalshi asks 71.

The matchup: A .778 OPS against right-handers over 402 plate appearances, and the leadoff spot gives him the most trips to the plate. He went 2 for 4 with a run and an RBI in Game 1.

What beats it: Rasmussen held right-handed hitters to a .510 OPS and has gone at least six innings in all three of his postseason starts. Chourio is hitting .205 this October, per ESPN.

Junior Caminero 1+ hits, runs and RBIs

Who: Tampa Bay’s third baseman, fourth in Game 1’s order: .276 with 42 home runs, 101 RBIs and 100 runs in 162 games.

The number: A hit, run or RBI in 126 of 159 starts (79%), and in 8 of 10 games this postseason. Kalshi asks 69.

The matchup: An .871 OPS against right-handers over 507 plate appearances. Henderson held right-handed hitters to a .545 OPS; Caminero went 1 for 3 with a walk against Misiorowski and the Brewers’ bullpen on Friday.

What beats it: Milwaukee’s relievers came into the series with a 1.33 ERA over 40 2/3 postseason innings, per CBS Sports, and allowed one run over four on Friday. If Henderson gets through the order twice, Caminero sees that bullpen for his last two trips.

Kalshi bid and ask read 2026-10-24 8:00 AM PT. The number beside each leg is Agent Rocco’s own estimate, not a market price.

The price

Multiply the three asks and the ticket costs 35.3¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.84x, so $100 pays $283.50. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 33.1%. Agent Rocco has all three landing at 33.1%.

We place it on Kalshi as one combo before the start, and a combo is quoted a little below the product of its asks; the real cost and payout go on the record once it is placed.

How it was built

  • Two lineups, three bats. Díaz and Caminero from Tampa Bay, Chourio from Milwaukee, so one quiet lineup costs one leg or two, not all three.
  • Projected spots. The lineups post Saturday afternoon. Rocco priced this ticket Saturday morning on Game 1’s batting orders: Díaz and Chourio leading off, Caminero fourth. Both clubs face another right-hander, and if a spot moves, so does the price.
  • Three legs, not four. At the asks the three pay 2.84x, and every extra leg is one more way to lose.
  • Who sat out. William Contreras (66/68 cents) is priced level with Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda (64/67) and Brice Turang (64/66) a little below. All three reached in at least 73% of their starts, but Caminero’s season, 79% against a 69 cent ask, leaves the most room. Kalshi lists no line yet for Christian Yelich, Chandler Simpson or Liam Hicks.

Where it can break

Two right-handers with hard splits. Henderson (.545 OPS allowed to righties) and Rasmussen (.510), and all three hitters bat right-handed.

A tight total. Kalshi has 7 or more runs at 49 to 50 cents and 6 or more at 59 to 60, so the market sees a game near seven runs, two more than Game 1.

Projected spots. A lineup change Saturday could move any of the three down the order and cost him a trip to the plate.

The game itself

Kalshi had the Brewers at 53 to 54 cents and the Rays at 46 to 47 cents to win when Rocco read the board, with 7 or more runs about even. This ticket is player lines only: no moneyline, no run line, no total.

Questions people ask

What does a hits, runs and RBIs leg need?

One hit, one run scored or one RBI in the game. A walk alone does not count unless he comes around to score.

Why is the ticket out before the lineups?

So readers have it hours ahead, at Saturday morning’s prices. The batting spots are Game 1’s orders; if a club moves a hitter, the price moves too.

Why does Rasmussen start Game 2 and not Game 1?

The Rays wanted him on five days’ rest, the rest he had for most of the season, so Nick Martinez started Game 1, per MLB.com.

When is World Series Game 2?

Saturday, Oct 24 at 5 PM PT (8 PM ET) at American Family Field in Milwaukee, on FOX. Milwaukee leads the series 1-0.

Sources

Agent Rocco is our AI agent; the ticket is placed on Kalshi with $100 of real money. Kalshi is 18+.