Kalshi opens a new up-or-down natural gas window every quarter hour, Sunday 3 PM to Friday 9 PM Pacific. This page is that contract: the price to beat in dollars per MMBtu, natural gas now and the gap in cents, and what a stake pays after the fee. Gas moves on the weather and on the government’s weekly storage report, out Thursdays at 10:30 AM Eastern, and the windows around that report have moved about three times as far as a normal one. Agent Reya, a Louisiana pelican, calls every window.
The odds and payout on this page still update on their own.
Short-term read
Move needed
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Typical move
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ATR 14
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15m range
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1h range
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vs VWAP
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Heuristics, not odds of winning. σ = recent realized volatility of these candles, scaled to the time left.
Natural gas price from Hyperliquid’s natural gas market, lined up with Kalshi’s starting price each window, your time zone. Kalshi settles on Pyth’s natural gas price.Charts by TradingView
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Before the next trade
After a loss, a big win or a long session, take a few minutes off the desk before the next trade.
On the desk today: . Counts while a desk page is open and on screen.
Foreword
Exclusive TunaLead writer · pen name
Trading 15-minute markets moves fast. A setup can change in minutes, so I want the right information in front of me before I make a decision.
That’s why I use PM Countdown. It puts the indicators and market information I care about in one place, so I can review the setup, understand the price being offered, and decide whether it’s actually worth taking.
The reset is part of my process too. After a big win, a tough loss, or too much time at the screen, five minutes away helps me come back focused instead of chasing the next trade.
I don’t need to trade every market. I want the right setup at the right price. PM Countdown helps me stay disciplined and wait for it.
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Reset running
5:00
Answer honestly. Only you see this, and nothing is saved.
Is the next trade about getting that loss back?
Do I know today’s loss limit in dollars?
Have I reached it?
Would I size the next trade bigger than I planned this morning?
Have I moved some of it to my bank account?
Does money I just won feel easier to risk than money I put in?
Would I size up the next trade because I’m up?
Do I know when I’m stopping today?
Have I stood up in the last hour?
Have I eaten something in the last few hours?
Did I get a normal night’s sleep?
Is it later than I planned to stop?
After a loss
Let this one go.
After a big win
Move some of it to your bank.
What to do with a big win: the set-aside, the move off the exchange, and the size of the next bankroll.
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How this natural gas desk works
Four numbers, then a decision
Every tab on this page ends in the same question: is the price you would pay below what you think this natural gas contract is worth, after the fee?
The natural gas price Kalshi publishes when the window opens: the 1-minute close on Pyth’s natural gas price at the open, in dollars per MMBtu (a million British thermal units) to five decimals, like $3.16528. It is set then and does not move. Up wins if the 1-minute close at the end of the window is at or above it.
NATGAS now and the gap
Natural gas from Hyperliquid’s natural gas market, lined up with Kalshi’s starting price each window: at the open it shows the price to beat, and every move after that is the market’s own move. The gap is in cents. Kalshi settles on Pyth’s natural gas price, not on this feed. In our check of 215 settled windows the two sat about a tenth of a cent apart at the open and agreed on the window’s direction 93% of the time, every time gas moved half a cent or more, so treat a gap of a tenth of a cent as a tie.
Up and Down prices
Up is the Kalshi ask for YES on this natural gas window. Down is 100 minus the YES bid, which is what NO costs you. A price in cents stands for the market’s chance in percent, so 44¢ is the market saying roughly 44%.
If you’re right, if you’re wrong
What your stake buys at the current ask, after Kalshi’s taker fee. If you’re wrong the whole stake is gone at the close. On a market that reopens four times an hour that is the number to decide first, not last.
15m
Real contract. Kalshi opens a fresh up-or-down natural gas window every quarter hour, Sunday 3 PM to Friday 9 PM Pacific, and settles it on the 1-minute close on Pyth’s natural gas price. That one contract is what the right-hand panel shows on every chart tab.
One close, no average
How it settles. The bitcoin contract averages the last 60 seconds of its index. This one does not: it compares one 1-minute close at the end with one at the start. The last minute matters more here, so the panel says so instead of averaging it.
1h · 4h · 1D · 1W
Chart views. Longer natural gas candles drawn over the same 15-minute contract and lined up the same way. They come from Hyperliquid’s market, which keeps a few days of 1-minute bars and longer history on the slower views.
1m · 2m · 3m · 5m
Chart views. Short natural gas candles over the current contract, built from Hyperliquid’s natural gas market. Volume on these candles is Hyperliquid’s, not Kalshi contracts.
Gold · Oil · Metals
Also real contracts. Kalshi runs the same quarter-hour cadence on gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper and WTI oil. Gold has its own desk with Agent WoJi, WTI oil with Agent Lee, and the rest are listed on the commodities page.
Natural gas’s scale
Why natural gas moves in cents and the line has five decimals
Natural gas is priced in dollars per MMBtu, near $3.20 this October, and Kalshi writes the price to beat to five decimals, like $3.16528. A typical 15-minute window moves about a third of a cent, so this page shows the gap in cents.
5 decimals
The line. The 1-minute close on Pyth’s natural gas price at the window’s open, in dollars per MMBtu. The close at the end of the window settles it and becomes the next window’s price to beat. Exact ties are rare: 0.2% of the windows we counted ended level, and those paid Up.
Storage day
Thursdays at 10:30 AM Eastern. The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its weekly natural gas storage report then. In the 14 windows that closed at 10:30 and 10:45 Eastern on a Thursday, gas moved about three times as far as in the rest.
Lined up
NATGAS now. Hyperliquid’s natural gas market sits close to Pyth’s price but is not the same feed. At each open this page adds the difference back, measured from Kalshi’s price to beat and Hyperliquid’s close for the minute that ends at the open, so NATGAS now starts every window at the line.
Book size
About copper’s size. A typical natural gas window trades about 13,000 contracts (the median of 3,813 settled windows since August 27), and the spread with seven minutes left averaged about 2.5 cents. Check the Up and Down prices before you size a ticket.
Source: Kalshi’s rules for the natural gas 15-minute market, the EIA’s release schedule, and our own counts of Kalshi’s settled windows and of Hyperliquid’s natural gas market against them, October 21, 2026.
Fees on a 15-minute natural gas window
A coin flip needs a real edge
Many natural gas windows trade near 50¢, and that is exactly where Kalshi's fee is at its worst. You pay the spread and the fee before you make anything, and this market reopens four times an hour, so the cost of trading every window adds up faster than the edge does.
Worked example: 100 Up contracts on a natural gas window at a 51¢ ask
These are the arithmetic, not a quote from the live natural gas market. Cost is $51.00 plus a $1.75 fee (0.07 × 100 × 0.51 × 0.49, rounded up to the cent), so $52.75 in total. They pay $100 if natural gas finishes on the right side of the target. You need to be right more than 52.75% of the time just to break even, and selling before the close adds a second fee.
Fee formula: Kalshi's taker fee, 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent; resting limit orders can pay less. The arithmetic uses Kalshi's standard taker fee, the schedule the gold and bitcoin windows carry. The published write-ups were written about bitcoin: predictionmarketspicks.com calls the spread plus fees on a near-coin-flip contract "a steep, constant drag", and TheLines puts the fee at 1¢ to 2¢ per contract.
Sizing
¼ Kelly, capped at 5%
Full Kelly for a natural gas contract at price P when you believe the chance is q is (q − P) ÷ (1 − P). We use a quarter of that, never more than 5% of your bankroll, and nothing at all when the number is zero or negative. Four natural gas windows an hour is four chances to overstake.
Full Kelly—
¼ Kelly—
Stake—
Ignores fees, which lower it further. Your chance is a guess; if it's wrong, Kelly oversizes. Source: betstamp on Kelly, which advises never risking more than 5% on one bet.
Take a break between windows
A new natural gas window every 15 minutes isn't a reason to trade every one
Fast markets reward slow rules. Natural gas gives you up to 96 of these windows a day and you do not have to be in any of them. Decide how many you will trade and your loss limit for the session before the first one, and stop when either runs out. If you lost the last natural gas window, sit out the next one.
Set a money limit for the session before you start, and keep it.
Never raise the stake to win back the last window.
Skip any natural gas window where you can't say why the price is wrong.
Walk away after a set number of windows, win or lose.
TheLines' guide to these markets makes the same point: "Take breaks. Avoid rushing into consecutive trades."
Only risk what you can afford to lose. This desk is information, not advice, and PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide
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