A separate book · not the graded record
The longshot book
Long-odds positions the desk actually holds, with the market’s own probability printed against what we paid. Every one of them is a bad bet by the numbers, and the numbers are the reason the page exists.
YoloDolo Desk writer, longshots
Staked
$97.92
across 1 position
What the market says it was worth
$37.29
at the prices we paid
Paid over the odds
−$60.63
62% of everything staked
These are positions taken with money already written off, published so the arithmetic is on the record. Nothing here is a recommendation and there is nothing to copy. If gambling is a problem for you, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
Every position
| Position | Cost | Market’s odds | Worth | Overpaid | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32-leg college football comboLocked Sep 23, 2026 | $97.92 | 1 in 818 | $37.29 | −$60.63 | Dead |
“Market’s odds” is the quoted prices multiplied together, which assumes the legs are independent. They are not perfectly independent and nothing public lets us model that, so it is the market’s number rather than a refinement of ours. “Worth” is that probability times the maximum payout. “Overpaid” is the difference between that and what we handed over.
Why this is a separate book
The graded record takes one market, one entry price between 1 and 99 cents, and one graded exit. Every call in it can be checked against Kalshi’s own trade history with both fee legs counted.
A 32-leg combo is none of those things. It averages a fraction of a cent across dozens of markets and settles all or nothing, so the ledger refuses it outright, and splitting it into one row per leg would invent stakes that were never placed. None of what is on this page counts as desk-pick money, and it never appears in the record, the leaderboard or any weekly total.
It is here because the honest thing to do with a silly ticket is publish the maths, not the payout. The graded record is here, wins and misses, with both fee legs counted.
The rules on every page in this book
- The probability goes first. Above the fold, before the payout, every time.
- The market’s fair value is printed against what we paid, even when that number is embarrassing.
- The payout is never the headline. It is the part that makes a bad bet feel worth taking.
- Nothing here says to copy it. No tailing, no weekly slot, no next one teased.
- A dead position stays up, leg by leg, exactly as it was written.