A'ja Wilson's Aces Face Elimination in Vegas Gabby Williams' Valkyries Are One Win Away

Valkyries vs Aces at a glance

The Golden State Valkyries (32-12, No. 2 seed) lead the defending champion Las Vegas Aces (31-13, No. 3 seed) 2-0 in their best-of-five WNBA semifinal and play Game 3 on Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET (6:30 PM PT) at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, on Peacock and NBCSN. A’ja Wilson and the Aces need three straight wins; Gabby Williams and Tiffany Hayes can send the second-year Valkyries to the Finals. DraftKings has Las Vegas favored by 3.5 with a total of 156.5.

Tip-off and TV

Friday, Oct. 9, 9:30 PM ET, 6:30 PM PT. Peacock and NBCSN.

Arena

Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.

The series

Golden State won Game 1 71-60 and Game 2 83-81, both at Chase Center. Games 4 (Las Vegas) and 5 (San Francisco) are if necessary, dates to be set.

The line

Las Vegas −3.5, total 156.5, moneyline Las Vegas −180 and Golden State +150 (DraftKings via ESPN, read Oct. 9, 12:20 AM PT). The moneyline opened Las Vegas −162. Kalshi had the Aces at 62¢ bid, 64¢ ask and the Valkyries at 38¢, 39¢, read 11:55 PM PT Thursday.

Ruled out

Out Las Vegas F NaLyssa Smith (left leg). Golden State C Iliana Rupert (not injury related).

Questionable

Questionable Las Vegas G Jewell Loyd (left leg, day to day), who started Game 1 and missed Game 2. Expected F Stephanie Talbot is still listed but started Game 2.

Expected starters

Expected Golden State: Burton, Zandalasini, Thornton, Gabby Williams, Kiah Stokes. Las Vegas: Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Talbot, Wilson, Turner. Not announced.

The matchup that decides it

Wilson against a Golden State bench that has outscored the Aces bench 61-21 in two games.

The storylines

The second-year Valkyries are one win from the Finals

Golden State reached the playoffs as an expansion team in 2025 and now has the defending champions on the brink. Gabby Williams before the series: “I love these situations, I love high-pressure situations.” (AP)

Hayes and Burton won Game 2

Tiffany Hayes, who missed last postseason with a left knee injury, scored 21 off the bench and made all 8 free throws. Burton’s deep three with 41 seconds left, her only field goal, broke the 81-81 tie, and Kiah Stokes blocked Chelsea Gray’s layup at the end.

The champions are down to their last game

The Aces won titles in 2022 and 2023 and are defending this one. Becky Hammon: “Nobody feels bad for us.” (TSN)

A coach against her mentor

Natalie Nakase was Hammon’s assistant in Las Vegas from 2022 to 2024 (AP).

Sources: AP Game 2 recap, AP series preview, TSN, ESPN box scores.

Valkyries vs Aces injury report

From ESPN’s Game 3 injury feed and team reports, read Oct. 9, 12:20 AM PT. Lineups are not announced; the expected fives are the Game 2 starters.

How the Valkyries and Aces got here

Game 1, Oct. 4, in San Francisco: Valkyries 71, Aces 60

Gabby Williams scored 25. Golden State won the boards 52-25, including 17-2 on the offensive glass, and held a team that scored 91.5 a game in the season to 60. Wilson had 24.

Game 2, Oct. 7, in San Francisco: Valkyries 83, Aces 81

Golden State led by as many as 17 and was up 66-55 after three. Chelsea Gray’s three tied it with 2:10 left before Burton’s winner. Wilson scored 24 again on 9 of 16 shooting, Gray 19 and Young 14 with 8 assists.

Golden State beat Dallas 2-1 in the first round; Las Vegas beat Indiana 2-1, with Wilson scoring 36 in the clincher. The Aces swept the regular-season series 3-0, two of the wins in Las Vegas.

Where Valkyries vs Aces gets decided

Wilson against Stokes and the Golden State frontcourt

Wilson scored 24 in both games after averaging 26.2 in the season.

Why it matters tonight: Golden State has kept her near her floor; a 30-point night from her is the Aces’ clearest path.

The benches

Golden State’s bench outscored the Aces’ 27-7 in Game 1 and 34-14 in Game 2. It led the league at 35.9 a game (TSN).

Why it matters tonight: with Loyd hurt, Hammon’s rotation is short, and every Valkyries substitution has won its minutes.

The glass

Golden State has 27 offensive rebounds to the Aces’ 8 across two games.

Why it matters tonight: Las Vegas outshot Golden State 44% to 41% in Game 2 and still lost the possession count.

Gray and Young in the half court

Las Vegas had 19 assists to Golden State’s 12 in Game 2, its best offensive sign of the series.

Why it matters tonight: the Aces have scored 60 and 81, about 21 below their season average; their guards are the way back to it.

Free throws

Golden State made 25 of 27 in Game 2 and drew 25 fouls to the Aces’ 17.

Why it matters tonight: a two-point game turned on it.

Kalshi against the books

Kalshi had the Aces at 62¢ to sell and 64¢ to buy at 11:55 PM PT Thursday: the market thinks Las Vegas wins Game 3 about five times in eight, despite losing twice in the series. DraftKings’ moneyline, Las Vegas −180 and Golden State +150, works out to about 62% for the Aces once the bookmaker’s margin comes out, so the two agree.

The money has moved toward Las Vegas: the moneyline opened −162, while the total slipped from 158.5 to 156.5 after games of 131 and 164 points. Home floor and the 3-0 regular-season sweep are most of the case for the Aces; Loyd’s status matters more for depth than for scoring.

Golden State won 15 of 22 road games; Las Vegas won 15 of 22 at home. A Valkyries ticket at 39¢ pays $1 if Golden State closes it out; check the live price on Kalshi before you trade.