Stewart's Liberty Host Reese's Dream Atlanta Is One Win From the Finals

Dream vs Liberty at a glance

The Atlanta Dream (30-14, No. 4 seed) lead the New York Liberty (26-18, No. 8 seed) 2-0 in their best-of-five WNBA semifinal and play Game 3 on Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET (4:30 PM PT) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, on ESPN2. A win sends Atlanta to its first WNBA Finals since 2013. Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu need a win to keep New York’s season alive against Angel Reese and Jordin Canada. DraftKings has New York favored by 2.5 points with a total of 172.5.

Tip-off and TV

Friday, Oct. 9, 7:30 PM ET, 4:30 PM PT. ESPN2.

Arena

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York.

The series

Atlanta won Game 1 92-82 and Game 2 101-98 in overtime, both in Atlanta. If needed, Game 4 is Sunday, Oct. 11, at 2 PM ET on ABC in Brooklyn, and Game 5 is Oct. 14 in Atlanta.

The line

New York −2.5, total 172.5, moneyline New York −155 and Atlanta +130 (DraftKings via ESPN, read Oct. 9, 12:20 AM PT). The moneyline opened New York −135. Kalshi had the Liberty at 57¢ bid, 58¢ ask and the Dream at 41¢, 42¢, read 11:55 PM PT Thursday.

Ruled out

Out Atlanta: F Brionna Jones (left leg), G Matilde Villa (coach’s decision). New York: F Satou Sabally (concussion, out for 2026), G Elizabeth Balogun (not injury related).

Questionable

Questionable Atlanta G Allisha Gray (left hand and finger). She scored 19.0 a game in the season, left Game 1 after 11 minutes and missed Game 2.

Expected starters

Expected Atlanta: Canada, Howard, Bonner, Hillmon, Reese. New York: Ionescu, Astier, Fiebich, Stewart, J. Jones. Neither team has announced a lineup.

The matchup that decides it

New York’s ball security against Atlanta’s hands: 35 Liberty turnovers to Atlanta’s 20 in two games.

The storylines

Atlanta is one win from its first Finals since 2013

The Dream matched their franchise record with 30 wins this season, then beat Washington 2-0 and won both semifinal games at State Farm Arena. Angel Reese after Game 2: “We really stayed together and played together, and that’s how we won.” (WNBA.com)

New York’s upset run hit a wall in Atlanta

The 2024 champions came in as the No. 8 seed and swept top-seeded Minnesota in the first round. In Atlanta they lost by 10, then lost in overtime after Fauthoux’s three with 10.3 seconds left tied it at 88. Naz Hillmon’s layup with 20.8 seconds left in overtime decided it.

Stewart is doing it, and it has not been enough

Stewart had 35 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists in Game 2, 25 of the points before halftime. Per Novig via ClutchPoints, nobody had put up 35, 10 and 5 in a WNBA playoff game before. Ionescu went 27 in Game 1, then 10.

Atlanta won Game 2 without its leading scorer

With Allisha Gray out, rookie Isobel Borlase gave Atlanta 11 points off the bench, and Howard and Naz Hillmon each played 44 minutes. After the game, the Liberty and the officials disagreed over whether New York had a reset timeout left on the final possession; Stewart said officials told the team it had none.

Sources: ESPN box scores for Games 1 and 2, WNBA.com Game 2 recap, ClutchPoints via Yahoo, AJC.

Dream vs Liberty injury report

From ESPN’s Game 3 injury feed and team reports, read Oct. 9, 12:20 AM PT. Starting lineups are not announced; the expected fives are the Game 2 starters.

How the Dream and Liberty got here

Game 1, Oct. 4, in Atlanta: Dream 92, Liberty 82

Jordin Canada scored 25 and Bonner added 23 off the bench, the pair combining for more than double their 20.2 regular-season average (TSN). New York turned it over 19 times, Atlanta had 14 steals and won fast-break points 18-0. Ionescu led New York with 27.

Game 2, Oct. 7, in Atlanta: Dream 101, Liberty 98 in overtime

Reese and Canada scored 23 each and Howard 18. Stewart’s 35 and J. Jones’ 21 kept New York in it, and New York shot 55% to Atlanta’s 40%, but Atlanta took 84 shots to New York’s 64.

Atlanta has won five straight, including a 83-65 win over New York on Sept. 24, and took the regular-season series 2-1. New York beat Minnesota twice before the two losses in Atlanta.

Where Dream vs Liberty gets decided

New York’s turnovers against Atlanta’s hands

New York gave it away 19 times in Game 1 and 16 in Game 2; Atlanta had 13 and 7. The Liberty averaged 13.1 turnovers in the season and are at 17.5 in this series.

Why it matters tonight: New York outshot Atlanta by 15 percentage points in Game 2 and still lost, because the Dream took 20 more shots.

Stewart against Reese and Hillmon

Stewart’s 35 came against Atlanta’s two physical bigs, who also own the glass: Atlanta won offensive rebounds 11-5 in Game 2.

Why it matters tonight: New York needs a second scorer beside her; Ionescu’s 10 points in Game 2 was the gap.

Canada running the point

Canada scored 25 and 23 and handed out 8 assists in Game 2.

Why it matters tonight: she averaged 7.3 assists in the season, and the scoring is new. If New York keeps her out of the paint, Atlanta’s half-court offense shrinks.

Gray’s hand

A 19.0-a-game scorer back in the rotation changes Atlanta’s minutes, which Howard and Hillmon carried at 44 each.

Why it matters tonight: it is the one piece of news that can move the price before tip-off.

Free throws in a close game

Atlanta made 21 of 23 at the line in Game 2; New York made 16 of 23.

Why it matters tonight: Game 2 was decided by three points.

Kalshi against the books

Kalshi had the Liberty at 57¢ to sell and 58¢ to buy at 11:55 PM PT Thursday: the market thinks New York wins Game 3 a little more often than not, almost all of it home floor. DraftKings’ moneyline, New York −155 and Atlanta +130, works out to about 58% for New York once the bookmaker’s margin comes out, so the two markets agree.

The money has moved toward New York: the moneyline opened −135, and the total climbed from 168.5 to 172.5 after a 199-point overtime game. Gray’s status is the next mover: a confirmed return should lift Atlanta, while a scratch matches the team that already won Game 2 without her.

Atlanta won 15 of its 22 road games this season; New York won 14 of 22 at Barclays Center. A Dream ticket at 42¢ pays $1 if Atlanta wins; check the live price on Kalshi before you trade, because it moves with every injury update.