We put $97.92 on a 32-team combo, and the market says it is worth $37.29

The arithmetic, against ourselves

Every leg is a favourite. The cheapest is 71¢ and the dearest is 93¢. That feels safe one game at a time, and that feeling is the whole trap: multiply thirty-two of them together and the number collapses.

The market's own prices put the combo at 0.1222%, about one in 818. At $97.92 for a $30,512.11 maximum, it needs 0.3209%, about one in 312, before it is worth the stake. So the ticket is worth roughly $37.29 and we paid $97.92 for it. That is about 62% of the stake handed over at the counter, before a single ball is snapped.

One honest caveat, in our favour and stated anyway: multiplying the legs assumes they are independent, and thirty-two college football games on one afternoon are not perfectly independent. Nothing in the public data lets us model that, so the number above is the market's, not a refinement of ours.

Why this is not in our pick record. Our pick record takes one market, one entry price between 1 and 99 cents, one graded exit. This position averages 0.3¢ across 32 markets and settles all-or-nothing, so it cannot be a row, and splitting it into 32 rows would invent 32 stakes that were never placed. The legs below are tracked here and nowhere else. None of it counts toward the record.

All 32 legs

27 of the 32 won. The 5 that lost are marked below with the team that beat them.

Prices are what we paid, read off the position. Every ticker was matched against Kalshi's own open-events list for the KXNCAAFGAME series, which is where the dates come from.¹ Every result is Kalshi's own settlement of that leg's market.

What this is actually for

A combo is entertainment, priced like entertainment. The house edge on a single Kalshi contract is thin. Stack thirty-two of them and the gap between what you pay and what it is worth grows every time you add a leg, because each one is priced with a margin and the margins multiply too.

That is the useful thing to take from this page. Not the payout. The payout is the part that makes it feel worth doing, and it is also the part every other version of this page leads with.

Every longshot we have taken is in one place, with what each cost and what the market said it was worth: the longshot book.

If you want to see what we do when we are being serious rather than being silly, every graded call is here, wins and misses, with both fee legs counted.

These markets on Kalshi

Every leg above links to its own market. They trade individually, which is the point worth noticing: one contract at 85¢ is a normal trade with a normal price. Thirty-two of them chained together is a different product wearing the same clothes.

There is no referral link on this page, deliberately. Kalshi’s refer-a-friend terms say the programme is “available for personal use only and may not be used for any commercial purpose”, so a personal link does not belong on a page like this one. PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi. Only risk what you can afford to lose. If gambling is a problem for you, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.