Kansas St. at Cincinnati: the market likes Kansas St.

Five reasons to watch this one

1. The money is on Kansas St.. Kalshi had Kansas St. at 68¢ and Cincinnati at 32¢, read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT.¹ That is the crowd, not a projection of ours, and the crowd is wrong often enough to be worth checking.
2. Avery Johnson, QB for Kansas St.. 58 completions, 83 attempts, 69.9 completion %, 618 passing yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6 passing TD, 2 interceptions, 43 long pass, 151.1 passer rating, 24 rush attempts, 253 rush yards, 3 rush TD in 2026.³ 618 passing yards on 58-of-83 (69.9%) with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions, a 151.1 rating and a long of 43, plus 253 rushing yards on 24 carries with 3 more TDs on the ground.
3. JV Gibson, WR for Cincinnati. 16 receptions, 201 receiving yards, 12.6 yards per reception, 3 receiving TD, 50 long in 2026.³ 16 catches for 201 yards, 12.6 a catch, with 3 touchdowns and a long of 50.
4. How much has actually traded. About 2,238 contracts across the two sides at our read.¹ You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column of that table suggests.
5. Where it is played. Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.¹ Home field is already inside the price above; it is not a second thing to add on top.

Prices read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT. We stamp every number with the minute we read it and we do not round in our own favour. Nothing in this list is a pick.

Tale of the tape

A leader row is the highest of the numbers already printed in the cards on this page, with the player who holds it, not a team total we computed. Where a row is marked Worse, that is this page comparing two numbers it has, never a view on who wins. A row exists only where both sides had the same stat; the rest are left out rather than shown against a blank.³

Who to watch

Every figure in these cards is a 2026 season total or average from ESPN’s own per-player feed.³ Nothing here is a projection for this game, and no line was rounded, combined or filled in: a player whose 2026 stats did not come back is not on this page at all.

What the market says

The two sides priced at 68¢ and 32¢ when we read the board. Kansas St. is the shorter price, and on this slate that is what the money thinks rather than what anybody has projected.

Kalshi market data, read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT.¹ These are the prices at that minute and this page does not refresh them. You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column suggests. PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Reading the price

A contract settles at $1.00 if the side wins and at nothing if it does not, so the price is the crowd’s probability with the spread on top. KSU at 68¢ is the market saying roughly 68%, and it is wrong often enough to be worth checking.

If the desk posts a call on this game it goes up with the buy price, the sell target and what happens if the target never fills, and it is graded on Kalshi’s own trade history with both fee legs counted, win or lose. A miss stays on the record next to the wins.

Every college football game on this slate, and every call the desk has graded, wins and misses, with both fee legs counted.

What this page does not know

• Kick-off time is not posted on ESPN at our read; the Sep 26 scoreboard returns a placeholder 04:00Z for every event.
• No Kansas State wide receiver surfaced anywhere in the roster data reachable this session -- a WR-only fetch of the same roster endpoint returned zero athletes at that position, which reads as truncation rather than an empty depth chart.
• No Cincinnati quarterback surfaced with usable 2026 stats. JC French IV had no 2026 entry and Brooks Goodman's stats fetch 404'd.
• Team records are omitted. The /teams/<id> endpoint returns no record.items for these teams, and the scoreboard record summary read for dates=20260919 returned 0-0 for every Big 12 team checked (same unreliability data/ncaaf-board-2026-09-26.json already documented for this slate) -- an invented record is worse than none.
• No injury report is published for this game at our read.
• Roster fetches for both teams appear to truncate before the alphabetical end of the offensive skill-position groups; players who did surface without a valid 2026 stats entry were dropped rather than guessed at.
• A record is not shown for both sides, so the tape table has no record row.

This list is part of the page, not an apology for it. Where a number was not in a source we read, it is absent here rather than estimated, and it stays absent until a dated read puts it back.