Ole Miss at Florida: the market likes Florida

Five reasons to watch this one

1. The money is on Florida. Kalshi had Florida at 59¢ and Ole Miss at 43¢, read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT.¹ That is the crowd, not a projection of ours, and the crowd is wrong often enough to be worth checking.
2. Trinidad Chambliss, QB for Ole Miss. 77 completions, 110 attempts, 70.0 completion %, 924 passing yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7 passing TD, 2 interceptions, 62 long pass, 158.0 passer rating, 21 rush attempts, 64 rush yards, 2 rush TD in 2026.³ 924 passing yards on 77-of-110 (70.0%) with 7 TDs and 2 interceptions, a 158.0 rating and a long of 62, plus 64 rushing yards on 21 carries with two more scores.
3. Aaron Philo, QB for Florida. 47 completions, 64 attempts, 73.4 completion %, 721 passing yards, 11.3 yards per attempt, 6 passing TD, 2 interceptions, 63 long pass, 193.1 passer rating, 18 rush attempts, 55 rush yards, 2 rush TD in 2026.³ 721 passing yards on 47-of-64 (73.4%) with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions, a 193.1 rating and a long of 63, plus 55 rushing yards on 18 carries with two more scores.
4. How much has actually traded. About 1,389,927 contracts across the two sides at our read.¹ You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column of that table suggests.
5. Where it is played. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL.¹ Home field is already inside the price above; it is not a second thing to add on top.

Prices read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT. We stamp every number with the minute we read it and we do not round in our own favour. Nothing in this list is a pick.

Tale of the tape

A leader row is the highest of the numbers already printed in the cards on this page, with the player who holds it, not a team total we computed. Where a row is marked Worse, that is this page comparing two numbers it has, never a view on who wins. A row exists only where both sides had the same stat; the rest are left out rather than shown against a blank. Left out on purpose: interceptions. A leader row takes the biggest number on each side, and for those the biggest number is not the better player.³

Who to watch

Every figure in these cards is a 2026 season total or average from ESPN’s own per-player feed.³ Nothing here is a projection for this game, and no line was rounded, combined or filled in: a player whose 2026 stats did not come back is not on this page at all.

What the market says

The two sides priced at 43¢ and 59¢ when we read the board. Florida is the shorter price, and on this slate that is what the money thinks rather than what anybody has projected.

Kalshi market data, read Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 12:45 PM PT.¹ These are the prices at that minute and this page does not refresh them. You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column suggests. PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Reading the price

A contract settles at $1.00 if the side wins and at nothing if it does not, so the price is the crowd’s probability with the spread on top. MISS at 43¢ is the market saying roughly 43%, and it is wrong often enough to be worth checking.

If the desk posts a call on this game it goes up with the buy price, the sell target and what happens if the target never fills, and it is graded on Kalshi’s own trade history with both fee legs counted, win or lose. A miss stays on the record next to the wins.

Every college football game on this slate, and every call the desk has graded, wins and misses, with both fee legs counted.

What this page does not know

• Kick-off time is not posted on ESPN at our read; the Sep 26 scoreboard returns a placeholder 04:00Z for every event.
• Both teams' records are omitted. The record endpoint returned '3-0, 1st in SEC' for Ole Miss, Florida and Mississippi State alike this session -- three different teams with one indistinguishable value, the same duplication pattern seen elsewhere in this session's reads -- so neither team's figure is trusted.
• No injury report is published for this game at our read.
• Ole Miss's leaders-ranked top rusher (athlete id 5086388, 191 yards) returned no 2026 season entry (stats stop at 2025) and was dropped. A second and third candidate (5209688, 4432757) also returned no 2026 entry; no valid Ole Miss rushing line surfaced, so Ole Miss ships with 4 players instead of 5 rather than force a bad id in.
• Florida's leaders-ranked top rusher (athlete id 5079322, 458 yards, 8 TD -- by far the slate's biggest rushing number) resolved to an athlete profile with no 2026 season entry at all; it was dropped despite the size of the number, per the never-plausible-over-null rule, and replaced with the next-ranked back who had a verified 2026 line.
• A record is not shown for both sides, so the tape table has no record row.

This list is part of the page, not an apology for it. Where a number was not in a source we read, it is absent here rather than estimated, and it stays absent until a dated read puts it back.