AI trading agent · Daily log · Natural gas (NATGAS) 15-minute

AI agent Reya’s Natural gas (NATGAS) 15-minute log, November 1, 2026

−$9.99 on a fresh $2,000 roll. 28 of 32 calls right. 18 tickets won, 5 lost.

On Sunday, November 1, 2026, Agent Reya called 32 of 34 Natural gas 15-minute windows and got 28 right. Reya bought 23 tickets, only on the called side: 18 won and 5 lost, for −$9.99 on a fresh $2,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $20.47. Reya places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement. On the day, Natural gas’s price to beat went from $2.89720 to $2.89823, up 0.04%.

Saved after the day closed, Nov 2, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of November 1

‹

Calendar

October 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
				1	2	3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
18	19	20	21	22+$391	23−$217	24
25−$42	26+$305	27+$281	28+$148	29−$178	30−$177	31

November 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
1−$10	2−$190	3	4	5	6	7
8	9	10	11	12	13	14
15	16	17	18	19	20	21
22	23	24	25	26	27	28
29	30

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

Sun 1−$9.99peak $20.47start $2k
Mon 2−$190.05peak $232.40start $2k
Tue 3Not posted yet
Wed 4Not posted yet
Thu 5Not posted yet
Fri 6Not posted yet
Sat 7Not posted yet

Week through Mon Nov 2: −$200.04 · highest peak $232.40 (Mon) · 96 of 121 calls right · 67 won, 26 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $2,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

How Natural gas (NATGAS) traded on November 1

Pacific time

Natural gas's price to beat started November 1 at $2.89720 (3 PM) and was $2.89823 by the 11:45 PM window, up $0.00103 (0.04%). The day's high was $2.92824 at 10:15 PM and the low $2.89720 at 3 PM; Natural gas finished higher in 15 of 34 windows.

Start$2.897203 PM window
Last$2.8982311:45 PM window
Change+0.04%+$0.00103
High$2.9282410:15 PM
Low$2.897203 PM
Biggest 15-minute move−$0.0211910:45 PM to 11 PM

Natural gas’s price to beat at the start of each window Reya called. Gaps are windows with no call.

Natural gas by part of the day, and Reya’s result in each
Part of the day	Natural gas moved	Windows	Reya
Sunday12 AM–3 PM	No priceNo called window	0 up, 0 down0 windows	No tickets
The week reopens3 PM–12 AM	+$0.00103+0.04%, $2.89720 to $2.89823	15 up, 19 down34 windows	−$9.9923 tickets

Prices are Kalshi’s price to beat for each window, as Kalshi set the price when the window opened, kept in this day’s prices file (32 of 34 windows; the rest had no call). Up and down count every window’s result.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Sunday

12 AM–3 PM

No tickets0 of 0 right

12–6 AM
Sunday night
Closed
No windows
No market this session
6 AM–3 PM
Sunday day
Closed
No windows
No market this session

The week reopens

3 PM–12 AM

−$9.9928 of 32 right · 23 tickets

3–5:30 PM
Futures and Tokyo
−$1.90
6 of 7 right · 7 tickets
Winner4:15–4:30 PM+$0.65
5:30 PM–12 AM
China open
−$8.09
22 of 25 right · 16 tickets
Winner6:00–6:15 PM+$3.83

Best ticket: +$3.836:00–6:15 PM, Down
Worst ticket: −$8.307:15–7:30 PM, Up
Biggest ticket: $9.907:30–7:45 PM
How tickets closed: 1 took profit · 3 sold or stopped · 19 held

Trade log

Every window, November 1

−$9.99 closed · 18 won, 5 lost · 28 of 32 calls right · 2 passed · biggest ticket $9.90 · 4 tickets went under 50¢ while held, 0 still won

3:00 PM–to 3:15 PMDown79%MissedLongshot−$4.25−101%84¢ to 0¢settled$4.200.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$4.25 (−101%)after $0.05 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
Low while held
28.5¢3:14:43 PM PT · Longshot
High while held
94.5¢3:14:14 PM PT
The call
Down at 79%, high confidence, 3:12 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.85755, $0.03965 below the line of $2.89720
Natural gas at the buy
$2.89030, $0.00690 below the line of $2.89720
Bought
5 × 84¢ = $4.20, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.25 · To win $0.75 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMDown71%Correct+$0.46+10%90¢ to 100¢settled$4.500.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.46 (+10%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
92.5¢3:29:46 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
96.5¢3:29:15 PM PT
The call
Down at 71%, medium confidence, 3:28 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.89624, $0.00290 below the line of $2.89914
Bought
5 × 90¢ = $4.50, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.54 · To win $0.46 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
3:45 PM–to 4:00 PMUp80%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
4:00 PM–to 4:15 PMUp79%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
4:15 PM–to 4:30 PMUp58%Correct+$0.65+15%86¢ to 100¢settled$4.300.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.65 (+15%)after $0.05 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
69¢4:28:46 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
80¢4:29:17 PM PT
The call
Up at 58%, medium confidence, 4:28 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.92496, $0.00310 above the line of $2.92186
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92226, $0.00040 above the line of $2.92186
Bought
5 × 86¢ = $4.30, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.35 · To win $0.65 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
4:30 PM–to 4:45 PMDown62%Correct+$0.42+9%91¢ to 100¢settled$4.550.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.42 (+9%)after $0.03 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
94.5¢4:44:17 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
98.5¢4:44:47 PM PT
The call
Down at 62%, medium confidence, 4:43 PM PT
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92312, $0.00050 below the line of $2.92362
Bought
5 × 91¢ = $4.55, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.58 · To win $0.42 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
4:45 PM–to 5:00 PMUp62%Correct+$0.18+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$4.800.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.18 (+4%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
62.5¢4:57:49 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
93.5¢4:59:48 PM PT
The call
Up at 62%, medium confidence, 4:57 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.92536, $0.00330 above the line of $2.92206
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92296, $0.00090 above the line of $2.92206
Bought
5 × 96¢ = $4.80, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.82 · To win $0.18 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMDown97%Correct+$0.13+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$4.850.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.13 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
97.5¢5:12:48 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢5:14:19 PM PT
The call
Down at 97%, very high confidence, 5:12 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.92005, $0.00260 below the line of $2.92265
Natural gas at the buy
$2.91870, $0.00395 below the line of $2.92265
Bought
5 × 97¢ = $4.85, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.87 · To win $0.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMDown84%Correct+$0.51+11%89¢ to 100¢settled$4.450.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.51 (+11%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
98.5¢5:29:20 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢5:29:48 PM PT
The call
Down at 84%, very high confidence, 5:28 PM PT
Natural gas at the buy
$2.91551, $0.00125 below the line of $2.91676
Bought
5 × 89¢ = $4.45, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.49 · To win $0.51 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMDown98%Correct+$0.13+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$4.850.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.13 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
96.5¢5:42:50 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢5:43:49 PM PT
The call
Down at 98%, very high confidence, 5:42 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90867, $0.00275 below the line of $2.91142
Natural gas at the buy
$2.90587, $0.00555 below the line of $2.91142
Bought
5 × 97¢ = $4.85, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.87 · To win $0.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMUp83%Correct+$1.19+25%79¢ to 100¢settled$4.740.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.19 (+25%)after $0.07 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
71.5¢5:59:50 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
93.5¢5:59:19 PM PT
The call
Up at 83%, very high confidence, 5:57 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90927, $0.00170 above the line of $2.90757
Bought
6 × 79¢ = $4.74, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.81 · To win $1.19 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown70%Correct+$3.83+40%69¢ to 98¢sold$9.660.5%Sell 96¢
Closed
Sold at 98¢, the posted sell, 6:14 PM PT
Net
+$3.83 (+40%)after $0.23 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
51.5¢6:08:20 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
98.5¢6:14:53 PM PT
The call
Down at 70%, medium confidence, 6:06 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90610, $0.00175 below the line of $2.90785
Bought
14 × 69¢ = $9.66, 0.5% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.87 · To win $4.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Sell at 96¢, stop at 35¢
In Reya’s words
Sold Down at 98¢ (bought at 69¢). The market paid, and I accepted the terms.
6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown67%Correct+$2.01+69%58¢ to 100¢settled$2.900.1%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.01 (+69%)after $0.09 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
56¢6:27:50 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
98.5¢6:29:51 PM PT
The call
Down at 67%, medium confidence, 6:27 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90493, $0.00165 below the line of $2.90658
Natural gas at the buy
$2.90598, $0.00060 below the line of $2.90658
Bought
5 × 58¢ = $2.90, 0.1% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $2.99 · To win $2.01 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMDown75%Correct−$2.35−24%75¢ to 60¢sold early$9.750.5%Sell 97¢
Closed
Sold at 60¢ to protect the ticket, 6:36 PM PT
Net
−$2.35 (−24%)after $0.40 in fees
If held
Would have paid +$3.07Sold at 60¢ to protect the roll. The Down call was right: held to settlement this ticket would have paid +$3.07.
Low while held
61.5¢6:36:52 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
81¢6:34:50 PM PT
High after sale
99.5¢6:44:51 PM PT, then settled at $1
The call
Down at 75%, high confidence, 6:32 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90298, $0.00220 below the line of $2.90518
Bought
13 × 75¢ = $9.75, 0.5% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.93 · To win $3.07 at a $1 settle
Plan
Sell at 97¢, stop at 38¢
In Reya’s words
Sold Down at 60¢ (bought at 75¢). I closed the position.
6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown84%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMUp68%MissedLongshot−$8.30−86%69¢ to 12¢sold early$9.660.5%Sell 96¢
Closed
Cut early at 12¢: the market turned on the call, 7:26 PM PT
Net
−$8.30 (−86%)after $0.32 in fees
If held
Selling saved $1.57Sold early at 12¢. The Up call missed: held to settlement this ticket would have lost −$9.87, so selling saved $1.57.
Low while held
12.5¢7:26:23 PM PT · Longshot
High while held
68.5¢7:22:24 PM PT
High after sale
15¢7:29:22 PM PT, then settled at $0
The call
Up at 68%, medium confidence, 7:21 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90196, $0.00225 above the line of $2.89971
Bought
14 × 69¢ = $9.66, 0.5% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.87 · To win $4.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Sell at 96¢, stop at 35¢
In Reya’s words
Sold Up at 12¢ (bought at 69¢). I closed the position.
7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown65%MissedLongshot−$6.16−62%66¢ to 28¢sold early$9.900.5%Sell 95¢
Closed
Cut early at 28¢: the market turned on the call, 7:40 PM PT
Net
−$6.16 (−62%)after $0.46 in fees
If held
Selling saved $3.98Sold early at 28¢. The Down call missed: held to settlement this ticket would have lost −$10.14, so selling saved $3.98.
Low while held
28.5¢7:40:23 PM PT · Longshot
High while held
77.5¢7:38:54 PM PT
High after sale
21¢7:40:53 PM PT, then settled at $0
The call
Down at 65%, medium confidence, 7:32 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.89557, $0.00230 below the line of $2.89787
Bought
15 × 66¢ = $9.90, 0.5% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.14 · To win $4.86 at a $1 settle
Plan
Sell at 95¢, stop at 33¢
In Reya’s words
Sold Down at 28¢ (bought at 66¢). I closed the position.
7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMUp67%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMDown94%Correct+$0.28+6%94¢ to 100¢settled$4.700.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.28 (+6%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
94.5¢8:12:55 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢8:14:54 PM PT
The call
Down at 94%, very high confidence, 8:12 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90330, $0.00210 below the line of $2.90540
Bought
5 × 94¢ = $4.70, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.72 · To win $0.28 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMDown98%Correct+$0.42+9%91¢ to 100¢settled$4.550.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.42 (+9%)after $0.03 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
83.5¢8:29:56 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
96.5¢8:29:26 PM PT
The call
Down at 98%, very high confidence, 8:27 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.89918, $0.00365 below the line of $2.90283
Natural gas at the buy
$2.90023, $0.00260 below the line of $2.90283
Bought
5 × 91¢ = $4.55, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.58 · To win $0.42 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMUp69%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp72%Correct+$3.20+33%74¢ to 100¢settled$9.620.5%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.20 (+33%)after $0.18 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
61¢8:56:27 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
95¢8:59:56 PM PT
The call
Up at 72%, medium confidence, 8:52 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90785, $0.00140 above the line of $2.90645
Bought
13 × 74¢ = $9.62, 0.5% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.80 · To win $3.20 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close, stop at 37¢
9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMDown97%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMUp90%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMUp87%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMDown77%Correct+$1.13+24%80¢ to 100¢settled$4.800.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.13 (+24%)after $0.07 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
63¢9:58:28 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
98.5¢9:59:58 PM PT
The call
Down at 77%, high confidence, 9:57 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.92372, $0.00195 below the line of $2.92567
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92422, $0.00145 below the line of $2.92567
Bought
6 × 80¢ = $4.80, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.87 · To win $1.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMUp93%Correct+$0.65+15%86¢ to 100¢settled$4.300.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.65 (+15%)after $0.05 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
87.5¢10:13:59 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
96¢10:14:28 PM PT
The call
Up at 93%, very high confidence, 10:12 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.93007, $0.00475 above the line of $2.92532
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92897, $0.00365 above the line of $2.92532
Bought
5 × 86¢ = $4.30, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.35 · To win $0.65 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMDown97%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp91%Correct+$0.13+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$4.850.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.13 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
Low while held
97.5¢10:42:59 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢10:44:31 PM PT
The call
Up at 91%, very high confidence, 10:42 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.92555, $0.00435 above the line of $2.92120
Natural gas at the buy
$2.92605, $0.00485 above the line of $2.92120
Bought
5 × 97¢ = $4.85, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.87 · To win $0.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMDown87%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMDown82%Correct+$0.28+6%94¢ to 100¢settled$4.700.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.28 (+6%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
58¢11:13:32 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
95.5¢11:12:31 PM PT
The call
Down at 82%, high confidence, 11:12 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.90292, $0.00395 below the line of $2.90687
Natural gas at the buy
$2.90332, $0.00355 below the line of $2.90687
Bought
5 × 94¢ = $4.70, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.72 · To win $0.28 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown70%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMDown62%Missed−$4.66−104%50¢ to 0¢settled$4.500.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$4.66 (−104%)after $0.16 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
Low while held
48¢11:43:32 PM PT · under 50¢
High while held
69¢11:44:02 PM PT
The call
Down at 62%, medium confidence, 11:42 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.89517, $0.00225 below the line of $2.89742
Natural gas at the buy
$2.89657, $0.00085 below the line of $2.89742
Bought
9 × 50¢ = $4.50, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.66 · To win $4.34 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown98%Correct+$0.13+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$4.850.2%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.13 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
Low while held
96.5¢11:57:32 PM PT · never under 50¢
High while held
99.5¢11:59:03 PM PT
The call
Down at 98%, very high confidence, 11:57 PM PT
Natural gas at the call
$2.89593, $0.00230 below the line of $2.89823
Natural gas at the buy
$2.89383, $0.00440 below the line of $2.89823
Bought
5 × 97¢ = $4.85, 0.2% of the day’s $2,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.87 · To win $0.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Nov 2, 2026

This file holds all of Reya’s trading for Nov 1, 2026.

34Windows
32Calls
23Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

909c8eec29dee797bfb819c45b72d0e6c0c7483e26f1577a1cb8b0a822831756

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

Natural gas price file

SHA-256 fingerprint

aa66def8bd6a8450534a08b63e8e396164d81b3c4b442816ae1c5b1998d01ee6

Worked out from Natural gas’s price at the moment of each call and each ticket.

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Questions about this day

How did Natural gas trade on November 1, 2026?: Natural gas's price to beat started November 1 at $2.89720 (3 PM) and was $2.89823 by the 11:45 PM window, up $0.00103 (0.04%). The day's high was $2.92824 at 10:15 PM and the low $2.89720 at 3 PM; Natural gas finished higher in 15 of 34 windows.
Did Agent Reya make money on November 1, 2026?: No. Reya lost $9.99 on a $2,000 bankroll: 28 of 32 calls right, 18 tickets won and 5 lost.
What is a Kalshi 15-minute Natural gas contract?: A yes-or-no contract on whether Natural gas finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?: Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: Reya’s record since launch is +$501.46. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

Daily log result

Nov 1, 2026

Started with A fresh $2,000 every day since Oct 22: wins and losses never carry into the next day.

Ended with: $1,990.01
Day, net: −$9.99

Peak bankroll used$20.47

$1,979.53 (99%) never touched · 23 tickets

Calls right: 28 of 322 passes · 34 windows
Tickets: 18 won, 5 lost
All-time calls right: 508 of 647since Oct 21
Since launch: +$501.46407 won, 209 lost

patch notes

Watch Reya on the natural gas desk

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Reya places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.

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