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AI trading agent · Daily log · USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute · Version 2.0

AI agent USD/JPY’s USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute log, November 1, 2026

−$126.32 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 17 of 37 calls right. 16 tickets won, 20 lost.

On Sunday, November 1, 2026, Agent USD/JPY called 37 of 37 USD/JPY 15-minute windows and got 17 right. USD/JPY bought 36 tickets, only on the called side: 16 won and 20 lost, for −$126.32 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $126.32. USD/JPY places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Nov 2, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of November 1

‹
Calendar
October 2026
SMTWTFS
123
45678910
11121314151617
18+$2219+$1120−$12321+$2022−$15823−$2424
25+$5826−$3827+$4128−$13229+$4630−$8331
November 2026
SMTWTFS
1−$1262−$14834567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

  1. Sun 1−$126.32peak $126.32start $1k
  2. Mon 2−$147.68peak $147.68start $1k
  3. Tue 3Not posted yet
  4. Wed 4Not posted yet
  5. Thu 5Not posted yet
  6. Fri 6Not posted yet
  7. Sat 7Not posted yet

Week through Mon Nov 2: −$274.00 · highest peak $147.68 (Mon) · 76 of 129 calls right · 58 won, 53 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Sunday

12 AM–3 PM

−$18.331 of 3 right · 2 tickets

  1. 12–6 AM

    Sunday night

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

  2. 6 AM–3 PM

    Sunday day

    −$18.33

    1 of 3 right · 2 tickets

    No winning ticket

The week reopens

3 PM–12 AM

−$107.9916 of 34 right · 34 tickets

  1. Best session

    3–5:30 PM

    Futures and Tokyo

    +$11.96

    6 of 9 right · 9 tickets

    Winner5:00–5:15 PM+$35.02

  2. 5:30 PM–12 AM

    China open

    −$119.95

    10 of 25 right · 25 tickets

    Winner9:45–10:00 PM+$4.81

Best ticket
+$35.025:00–5:15 PM, Down
Worst ticket
−$10.546:15–6:30 PM, Down
Biggest ticket
$9.922:30–2:45 PM
How tickets closed
0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 36 held

Trade log

Every window, November 1

−$126.32 closed · 16 won, 20 lost · 17 of 37 calls right · biggest ticket $9.92

  1. 2:15 PM–to 2:30 PMDown100%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
  2. 2:30 PM–to 2:45 PMDown17%Missed−$10.40−105%31¢ to 0¢settled$9.921.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.40 (−105%)after $0.48 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 17%, low confidence, 2:34 PM PT
    Bought
    32 × 31¢ = $9.92, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.40 · To win $21.60 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  3. 2:45 PM–to 3:00 PMDown70%Missed−$7.93−104%38¢ to 0¢settled$7.600.8%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$7.93 (−104%)after $0.33 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 70%, medium confidence, 2:57 PM PT
    Bought
    20 × 38¢ = $7.60, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $7.93 · To win $12.07 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  4. 3:00 PM–to 3:15 PMDown0%Missed−$10.48−107%2¢ to 0¢settled$9.801.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.48 (−107%)after $0.68 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 0%, low confidence, 3:04 PM PT
    Bought
    490 × 2¢ = $9.80, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.48 · To win $479.52 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  5. 3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMDown68%Correct+$1.97+22%81¢ to 100¢settled$8.910.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.97 (+22%)after $0.12 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 68%, medium confidence, 3:27 PM PT
    Bought
    11 × 81¢ = $8.91, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.03 · To win $1.97 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  6. 3:30 PM–to 3:45 PMUp72%Correct+$0.93+10%90¢ to 100¢settled$9.000.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.93 (+10%)after $0.07 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 72%, medium confidence, 3:42 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 90¢ = $9.00, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.07 · To win $0.93 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  7. 3:45 PM–to 4:00 PMUp71%Correct+$2.38+25%79¢ to 100¢settled$9.480.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$2.38 (+25%)after $0.14 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 71%, medium confidence, 3:57 PM PT
    Bought
    12 × 79¢ = $9.48, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.62 · To win $2.38 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  8. 4:15 PM–to 4:30 PMUp58%Missed−$10.06−105%32¢ to 0¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.06 (−105%)after $0.46 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 58%, medium confidence, 4:27 PM PT
    Bought
    30 × 32¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.06 · To win $19.94 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  9. 4:30 PM–to 4:45 PMDown51%Missed−$9.82−104%41¢ to 0¢settled$9.430.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.82 (−104%)after $0.39 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 51%, medium confidence, 4:42 PM PT
    Bought
    23 × 41¢ = $9.43, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.82 · To win $13.18 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  10. 4:45 PM–to 5:00 PMDown88%Correct+$1.65+18%84¢ to 100¢settled$9.240.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.65 (+18%)after $0.11 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 88%, very high confidence, 4:57 PM PT
    Bought
    11 × 84¢ = $9.24, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.35 · To win $1.65 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  11. 5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMDown20%Correct+$35.02+371%21¢ to 100¢settled$9.450.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$35.02 (+371%)after $0.53 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 20%, low confidence, 5:08 PM PT
    Bought
    45 × 21¢ = $9.45, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.98 · To win $35.02 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  12. 5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMUp96%Correct+$0.37+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.37 (+4%)after $0.03 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 96%, very high confidence, 5:27 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 96¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.63 · To win $0.37 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  13. 5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMDown64%Correct+$3.07+31%75¢ to 100¢settled$9.751.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$3.07 (+31%)after $0.18 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 64%, medium confidence, 5:42 PM PT
    Bought
    13 × 75¢ = $9.75, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.93 · To win $3.07 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  14. 5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMUp58%Correct+$4.26+45%68¢ to 100¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$4.26 (+45%)after $0.22 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 58%, medium confidence, 5:57 PM PT
    Bought
    14 × 68¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.74 · To win $4.26 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  15. 6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown13%Missed−$10.37−105%24¢ to 0¢settled$9.841.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.37 (−105%)after $0.53 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 13%, low confidence, 6:04 PM PT
    Bought
    41 × 24¢ = $9.84, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.37 · To win $30.63 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  16. 6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown9%Missed−$10.54−106%9¢ to 0¢settled$9.901.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.54 (−106%)after $0.64 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 9%, low confidence, 6:21 PM PT
    Bought
    110 × 9¢ = $9.90, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.54 · To win $99.46 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  17. 6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMDown11%Missed−$10.44−107%7¢ to 0¢settled$9.801.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.44 (−107%)after $0.64 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 11%, low confidence, 6:41 PM PT
    Bought
    140 × 7¢ = $9.80, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.44 · To win $129.56 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  18. 6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMUp12%Missed−$10.30−107%5¢ to 0¢settled$9.651.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.30 (−107%)after $0.65 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 12%, low confidence, 6:56 PM PT
    Bought
    193 × 5¢ = $9.65, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $10.30 · To win $182.70 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  19. 7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMUp74%Missed−$9.74−102%68¢ to 0¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.74 (−102%)after $0.22 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 74%, high confidence, 7:12 PM PT
    Bought
    14 × 68¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.74 · To win $4.26 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  20. 7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMDown1%Missed−$8.34−106%2¢ to 0¢settled$7.850.8%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$8.34 (−106%)after $0.49 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 1%, low confidence, 7:23 PM PT
    Bought
    355 × 2¢ = $7.85, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.34 · To win $346.66 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  21. 7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown60%Missed−$9.65−104%49¢ to 0¢settled$9.310.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.65 (−104%)after $0.34 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 60%, medium confidence, 7:42 PM PT
    Bought
    19 × 49¢ = $9.31, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.65 · To win $9.35 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  22. 7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMDown84%Correct+$2.95+33%74¢ to 100¢settled$8.880.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$2.95 (+33%)after $0.17 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 84%, very high confidence, 7:57 PM PT
    Bought
    12 × 74¢ = $8.88, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.05 · To win $2.95 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  23. 8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMDown75%Missed−$9.51−102%66¢ to 0¢settled$9.290.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.51 (−102%)after $0.22 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 75%, high confidence, 8:12 PM PT
    Bought
    14 × 66¢ = $9.29, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.51 · To win $4.49 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  24. 8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMUp94%Correct+$0.33+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$8.640.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.33 (+4%)after $0.03 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 94%, very high confidence, 8:27 PM PT
    Bought
    9 × 96¢ = $8.64, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.67 · To win $0.33 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  25. 8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMUp97%Correct+$0.25+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$8.730.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.25 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 97%, very high confidence, 8:42 PM PT
    Bought
    9 × 97¢ = $8.73, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.75 · To win $0.25 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  26. 8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp5%Missed−$9.80−107%8¢ to 0¢settled$9.200.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.80 (−107%)after $0.60 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 5%, low confidence, 8:52 PM PT
    Bought
    115 × 8¢ = $9.20, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.80 · To win $105.20 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  27. 9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMDown92%Correct+$2.84+32%75¢ to 100¢settled$9.000.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$2.84 (+32%)after $0.16 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 92%, very high confidence, 9:12 PM PT
    Bought
    12 × 75¢ = $9.00, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.16 · To win $2.84 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  28. 9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMDown98%Correct+$0.33+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$8.640.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.33 (+4%)after $0.03 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 98%, very high confidence, 9:27 PM PT
    Bought
    9 × 96¢ = $8.64, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.67 · To win $0.33 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  29. 9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMDown0%Missed−$9.81−107%2¢ to 0¢settled$9.180.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.81 (−107%)after $0.63 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 0%, low confidence, 9:41 PM PT
    Bought
    459 × 2¢ = $9.18, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.81 · To win $449.19 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  30. 9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMDown52%Correct+$4.81+54%64¢ to 100¢settled$8.960.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$4.81 (+54%)after $0.23 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 52%, medium confidence, 9:57 PM PT
    Bought
    14 × 64¢ = $8.96, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.19 · To win $4.81 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  31. 10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMDown66%Missed−$9.19−103%64¢ to 0¢settled$8.960.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.19 (−103%)after $0.23 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 66%, medium confidence, 10:12 PM PT
    Bought
    14 × 64¢ = $8.96, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.19 · To win $4.81 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  32. 10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp66%Missed−$8.66−102%65¢ to 0¢settled$8.450.8%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$8.66 (−102%)after $0.21 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 66%, medium confidence, 10:42 PM PT
    Bought
    13 × 65¢ = $8.45, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.66 · To win $4.34 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  33. 10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMUp56%Missed−$9.39−105%32¢ to 0¢settled$8.960.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.39 (−105%)after $0.43 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 56%, medium confidence, 10:57 PM PT
    Bought
    28 × 32¢ = $8.96, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.39 · To win $18.61 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  34. 11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMDown53%Correct+$3.54+43%69¢ to 100¢settled$8.280.8%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$3.54 (+43%)after $0.18 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 53%, medium confidence, 11:12 PM PT
    Bought
    12 × 69¢ = $8.28, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.46 · To win $3.54 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  35. 11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown84%Correct+$1.12+13%88¢ to 100¢settled$8.800.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.12 (+13%)after $0.08 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 84%, very high confidence, 11:27 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 88¢ = $8.80, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.88 · To win $1.12 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  36. 11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp12%Missed−$9.50−107%5¢ to 0¢settled$8.900.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$9.50 (−107%)after $0.60 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 12%, low confidence, 11:40 PM PT
    Bought
    178 × 5¢ = $8.90, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $9.50 · To win $168.50 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  37. 11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown86%Missed−$8.21−101%81¢ to 0¢settled$8.100.8%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$8.21 (−101%)after $0.11 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 86%, very high confidence, 11:57 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 81¢ = $8.10, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $8.21 · To win $1.79 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Nov 2, 2026

This file holds all of USD/JPY’s trading for Nov 1, 2026.

  • 37Windows
  • 37Calls
  • 36Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

b36dd7d60b80d310d324daf43dfa86b9e135cd4116c654dce6c695c7248d69f1

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

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November 1 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent USD/JPY make money on November 1, 2026?
No. USD/JPY lost $126.32 on a $1,000 bankroll: 17 of 37 calls right, 16 tickets won and 20 lost. The best session was Futures and Tokyo (+$11.96) and the worst was China open (−$119.95).
What is a Kalshi 15-minute USD/JPY contract?
A yes-or-no contract on whether USD/JPY finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?
Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: USD/JPY’s record since launch is −$485.90. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

USD/JPY places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.