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AI trading agent · Daily log · USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute · Versions 1.1 and 2.0

AI agent USD/JPY’s USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute log, October 19, 2026

+$10.93 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 19 of 39 calls right. 17 tickets won, 20 lost.

On Monday, October 19, 2026, Agent USD/JPY called 39 of 39 USD/JPY 15-minute windows and got 19 right. USD/JPY bought 37 tickets, only on the called side: 17 won and 20 lost, for +$10.93 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $40.76. USD/JPY places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 20, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 18

Calendar
October 2026
SMTWTFS
123
45678910
11121314151617
18+$2219+$1120−$12321+$2022−$1582324
25262728293031

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

  1. Sun 18+$21.93peak $20.88start $1k
  2. Mon 19+$10.93peak $40.76start $1k
  3. Tue 20−$123.03peak $145.44start $1k
  4. Wed 21+$20.16peak $123.77start $1k
  5. Thu 22−$157.78peak $202.79start $1k
  6. Fri 23Not posted yet
  7. Sat 24Not posted yet

Week through Thu Oct 22: −$227.79 · highest peak $202.79 (Thu) · 178 of 316 calls right · 144 won, 137 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Before the US open

12–6:30 AM

+$4.701 of 4 right · 4 tickets

  1. 12–5:30 AM

    Pre-market

    +$4.70

    1 of 4 right · 4 tickets

    Winner3:30–3:45 AM+$35.80

  2. 5:30–6:30 AM

    US data

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

US market open

6:30 AM–1 PM

+$41.962 of 4 right · 4 tickets

  1. 6:30–7:30 AM

    US open

    +$32.57

    1 of 1 right · 1 ticket

    Winner6:45–7:00 AM+$32.57

  2. 7:30 AM–12 PM

    Midday

    +$20.41

    1 of 2 right · 2 tickets

    Winner8:00–8:15 AM+$43.15

  3. 12–1 PM

    Final hour

    −$11.02

    0 of 1 right · 1 ticket

    No winning ticket

After the US close

1 PM–12 AM

−$35.7316 of 31 right · 29 tickets

  1. 1–3 PM

    After the close

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

  2. Best session

    3–6:30 PM

    Futures and Tokyo

    +$44.70

    5 of 9 right · 9 tickets

    Winner5:00–5:15 PM+$36.86

  3. 6:30 PM–12 AM

    China open

    −$80.43

    11 of 22 right · 20 tickets

    Winner7:45–8:00 PM+$11.49

Best ticket
+$43.158:00–8:15 AM, Up
Worst ticket
−$22.7411:45 AM–12:00 PM, Down
Biggest ticket
$21.5611:45 AM–12:00 PM
How tickets closed
0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 37 held

Trade log

Every window, October 19

+$10.93 closed · 17 won, 20 lost · 19 of 39 calls right · biggest ticket $21.56

  1. 1:15 AM–to 1:30 AMDown22%Missed−$10.56−106%20¢ to 0¢settled$10.001.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.56 (−106%)after $0.56 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 1:27 AM PT
    Bought
    50 × 20¢ = $10.00, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  2. 1:45 AM–to 2:00 AMDown22%Missed−$10.34−106%16¢ to 0¢settled$9.761.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.34 (−106%)after $0.58 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 1:56 AM PT
    Bought
    61 × 16¢ = $9.76, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  3. 2:30 AM–to 2:45 AMDown22%Missed−$10.20−106%21¢ to 0¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.20 (−106%)after $0.54 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 2:41 AM PT
    Bought
    46 × 21¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  4. 3:30 AM–to 3:45 AMDown22%Correct+$35.80+371%21¢ to 100¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$35.80 (+371%)after $0.54 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 3:41 AM PT
    Bought
    46 × 21¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  5. 6:45 AM–to 7:00 AMDown33%Correct+$32.57+329%23¢ to 100¢settled$9.891.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$32.57 (+329%)after $0.54 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 33%, low confidence, 6:58 AM PT
    Bought
    43 × 23¢ = $9.89, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  6. 8:00 AM–to 8:15 AMUp18%Correct+$43.15+421%19¢ to 100¢settled$10.261.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$43.15 (+421%)after $0.59 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 18%, low confidence, 8:09 AM PT
    Bought
    54 × 19¢ = $10.26, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  7. 11:45 AM–to 12:00 PMDown22%Missed−$22.74−105%22¢ to 0¢settled$21.562.2%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$22.74 (−105%)after $1.18 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 11:54 AM PT
    Bought
    98 × 22¢ = $21.56, 2.2% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  8. 12:15 PM–to 12:30 PMDown33%Missed−$11.02−105%30¢ to 0¢settled$10.501.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.02 (−105%)after $0.52 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 33%, low confidence, 12:24 PM PT
    Bought
    35 × 30¢ = $10.50, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  9. 3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMDown22%Correct+$32.13+311%24¢ to 100¢settled$10.321.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$32.13 (+311%)after $0.55 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 3:28 PM PT
    Bought
    43 × 24¢ = $10.32, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  10. 3:30 PM–to 3:45 PMUp22%Missed−$11.32−105%25¢ to 0¢settled$10.751.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.32 (−105%)after $0.57 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 22%, low confidence, 3:43 PM PT
    Bought
    43 × 25¢ = $10.75, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  11. 4:45 PM–to 5:00 PMUp7%Missed−$11.32−107%6¢ to 0¢settled$10.621.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.32 (−107%)after $0.70 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 7%, low confidence, 4:54 PM PT
    Bought
    177 × 6¢ = $10.62, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  12. 5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMDown22%Correct+$36.86+349%22¢ to 100¢settled$10.561.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$36.86 (+349%)after $0.58 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 5:09 PM PT
    Bought
    48 × 22¢ = $10.56, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  13. 5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMUp85%Correct+$1.12+10%90¢ to 100¢settled$10.801.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.12 (+10%)after $0.08 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 85%, very high confidence, 5:26 PM PT
    Bought
    12 × 90¢ = $10.80, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  14. 5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMUp69%Correct+$6.17+59%62¢ to 100¢settled$10.541.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$6.17 (+59%)after $0.29 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 69%, medium confidence, 5:32 PM PT
    Bought
    17 × 62¢ = $10.54, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  15. 5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMDown58%Missed−$10.98−104%46¢ to 0¢settled$10.581.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.98 (−104%)after $0.40 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 58%, medium confidence, 5:47 PM PT
    Bought
    23 × 46¢ = $10.58, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  16. 6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown40%Correct+$13.02+123%44¢ to 100¢settled$10.561.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$13.02 (+123%)after $0.42 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 40%, low confidence, 6:02 PM PT
    Bought
    24 × 44¢ = $10.56, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  17. 6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown53%Missed−$10.98−104%46¢ to 0¢settled$10.581.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.98 (−104%)after $0.40 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 53%, medium confidence, 6:17 PM PT
    Bought
    23 × 46¢ = $10.58, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  18. 6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMDown48%Missed−$11.17−104%49¢ to 0¢settled$10.781.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.17 (−104%)after $0.39 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 48%, low confidence, 6:32 PM PT
    Bought
    22 × 49¢ = $10.78, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  19. 6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMUp54%Missed−$11.11−103%60¢ to 0¢settled$10.801.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.11 (−103%)after $0.31 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 54%, medium confidence, 6:57 PM PT
    Bought
    18 × 60¢ = $10.80, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  20. 7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMUp16%Missed−$11.33−106%8¢ to 0¢settled$10.641.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.33 (−106%)after $0.69 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 16%, low confidence, 7:08 PM PT
    Bought
    133 × 8¢ = $10.64, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  21. 7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMUp7%Missed−$0.63−107%10¢ to 0¢settled$0.59<0.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$0.63 (−107%)after $0.04 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 7%, low confidence, 7:25 PM PT
    Bought
    6 × 10¢ = $0.59, <0.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  22. 7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMUp100%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
  23. 7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMUp28%Correct+$11.49+114%46¢ to 100¢settled$10.121.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$11.49 (+114%)after $0.39 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 28%, low confidence, 7:50 PM PT
    Bought
    22 × 46¢ = $10.12, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  24. 8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMUp2%Missed−$11.01−106%3¢ to 0¢settled$10.361.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.01 (−106%)after $0.65 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 2%, low confidence, 8:07 PM PT
    Bought
    319 × 3¢ = $10.36, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  25. 8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMUp81%Correct+$6.34+61%61¢ to 100¢settled$10.371.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$6.34 (+61%)after $0.29 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 81%, high confidence, 8:27 PM PT
    Bought
    17 × 61¢ = $10.37, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  26. 8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMUp2%Missed−$11.31−107%5¢ to 0¢settled$10.601.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.31 (−107%)after $0.71 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 2%, low confidence, 8:39 PM PT
    Bought
    212 × 5¢ = $10.60, 1.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  27. 8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMDown99%Correct+$0.27+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$9.701.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.27 (+3%)after $0.03 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 99%, very high confidence, 8:57 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 97¢ = $9.70, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  28. 9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMUp16%Missed−$11.10−106%15¢ to 0¢settled$10.461.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.10 (−106%)after $0.64 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 16%, low confidence, 9:07 PM PT
    Bought
    71 × 15¢ = $10.46, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  29. 9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMUp3%Missed−$11.04−107%7¢ to 0¢settled$10.361.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$11.04 (−107%)after $0.68 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 3%, low confidence, 9:26 PM PT
    Bought
    148 × 7¢ = $10.36, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  30. 9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMUp57%Correct+$5.97+61%61¢ to 100¢settled$9.761.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$5.97 (+61%)after $0.27 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 57%, medium confidence, 9:42 PM PT
    Bought
    16 × 61¢ = $9.76, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  31. 9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMUp66%Missed−$10.43−102%68¢ to 0¢settled$10.201.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.43 (−102%)after $0.23 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 66%, medium confidence, 9:57 PM PT
    Bought
    15 × 68¢ = $10.20, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  32. 10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMUp97%Correct+$0.56+6%94¢ to 100¢settled$9.400.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.56 (+6%)after $0.04 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 97%, very high confidence, 10:12 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 94¢ = $9.40, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  33. 10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMDown77%Correct+$0.82+8%92¢ to 100¢settled$10.121.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.82 (+8%)after $0.06 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 77%, high confidence, 10:27 PM PT
    Bought
    11 × 92¢ = $10.12, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  34. 10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp8%Missed−$10.84−106%14¢ to 0¢settled$10.221.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.84 (−106%)after $0.62 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 8%, low confidence, 10:34 PM PT
    Bought
    73 × 14¢ = $10.22, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  35. 10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMUp89%Correct+$2.82+28%77¢ to 100¢settled$10.011.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$2.82 (+28%)after $0.17 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 89%, very high confidence, 10:57 PM PT
    Bought
    13 × 77¢ = $10.01, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  36. 11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMDown91%Correct+$1.47+16%86¢ to 100¢settled$9.430.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.47 (+16%)after $0.10 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 91%, very high confidence, 11:12 PM PT
    Bought
    11 × 86¢ = $9.43, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  37. 11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown100%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
  38. 11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp86%Correct+$0.46+5%95¢ to 100¢settled$9.500.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.46 (+5%)after $0.04 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 86%, very high confidence, 11:42 PM PT
    Bought
    10 × 95¢ = $9.50, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  39. 11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown17%Missed−$10.66−106%18¢ to 0¢settled$10.081.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.66 (−106%)after $0.58 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 17%, low confidence, 11:49 PM PT
    Bought
    56 × 18¢ = $10.08, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 20, 2026

This file holds all of USD/JPY’s trading for Oct 19, 2026.

  • 39Windows
  • 39Calls
  • 37Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

31dbf46c7ea1ef8a32de1790ee22717a4cfe4815e489f6b9e802dcb10b4cf5ef

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

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October 19 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent USD/JPY make money on October 19, 2026?
Yes. USD/JPY made $10.93 on a $1,000 bankroll: 19 of 39 calls right, 17 tickets won and 20 lost. The best session was Futures and Tokyo (+$44.70) and the worst was China open (−$80.43).
What is a Kalshi 15-minute USD/JPY contract?
A yes-or-no contract on whether USD/JPY finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?
Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: USD/JPY’s record since launch is +$32.86. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

USD/JPY places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.