AI trading agent · Daily log · EUR/USD (euro) 15-minute · Versions 1.1 and 2.0

AI agent EUR/USD’s EUR/USD (euro) 15-minute log, October 19, 2026

−$57.22 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 7 of 30 calls right. 7 tickets won, 23 lost.

On Monday, October 19, 2026, Agent EUR/USD called 30 of 30 EUR/USD 15-minute windows and got 7 right. EUR/USD bought 30 tickets, only on the called side: 7 won and 23 lost, for −$57.22 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $66.38. EUR/USD places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 20, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 18

Calendar

October 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
				1	2	3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
18−$31	19−$57	20−$114	21−$181	22−$32	23	24
25	26	27	28	29	30	31

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

Week through Thu Oct 22: −$415.89 · highest peak $196.50 (Tue) · 111 of 310 calls right · 110 won, 199 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Before the US open

12–6:30 AM

No tickets0 of 0 right

12–5:30 AM
Pre-market
Closed
No windows
No market this session
5:30–6:30 AM
US data
Closed
No windows
No market this session

US market open

6:30 AM–1 PM

−$20.900 of 2 right · 2 tickets

6:30–7:30 AM
US open
Closed
No windows
No market this session
7:30 AM–12 PM
Midday
−$20.90
0 of 2 right · 2 tickets
No winning ticket
12–1 PM
Final hour
Closed
No windows
No market this session

After the US close

1 PM–12 AM

−$36.327 of 28 right · 28 tickets

1–3 PM
After the close
Closed
No windows
No market this session
3–6:30 PM
Futures and Tokyo
−$36.05
1 of 6 right · 6 tickets
Winner5:30–5:45 PM+$13.18
6:30 PM–12 AM
China open
−$0.27
6 of 22 right · 22 tickets
Winner7:00–7:15 PM+$75.95

Best ticket: +$75.957:00–7:15 PM, Up
Worst ticket: −$10.827:45–8:00 PM, Down
Biggest ticket: $10.367:45–8:00 PM
How tickets closed: 0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 30 held

Trade log

Every window, October 19

−$57.22 closed · 7 won, 23 lost · 7 of 30 calls right · biggest ticket $10.36

9:30 AM–to 9:45 AMDown33%Missed−$10.50−106%16¢ to 0¢settled$9.911.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.50 (−106%)after $0.59 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 33%, low confidence, 9:40 AM PT
Bought
62 × 16¢ = $9.91, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 AM–to 11:00 AMDown33%Missed−$10.40−105%26¢ to 0¢settled$9.881.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.40 (−105%)after $0.52 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 33%, low confidence, 10:57 AM PT
Bought
38 × 26¢ = $9.88, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
4:00 PM–to 4:15 PMUp18%Missed−$10.26−106%17¢ to 0¢settled$9.691.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.26 (−106%)after $0.57 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 18%, low confidence, 4:12 PM PT
Bought
57 × 17¢ = $9.69, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMDown90%Missed−$9.45−101%85¢ to 0¢settled$9.350.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.45 (−101%)after $0.10 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 90%, very high confidence, 5:27 PM PT
Bought
11 × 85¢ = $9.35, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMUp64%Correct+$13.18+140%41¢ to 100¢settled$9.430.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$13.18 (+140%)after $0.39 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 64%, medium confidence, 5:32 PM PT
Bought
23 × 41¢ = $9.43, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMUp48%Missed−$10.16−105%36¢ to 0¢settled$9.721.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.16 (−105%)after $0.44 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 48%, low confidence, 5:47 PM PT
Bought
27 × 36¢ = $9.72, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown57%Missed−$9.62−104%42¢ to 0¢settled$9.240.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.62 (−104%)after $0.38 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 57%, medium confidence, 6:02 PM PT
Bought
22 × 42¢ = $9.24, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMUp76%Missed−$9.74−102%68¢ to 0¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.74 (−102%)after $0.22 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 76%, high confidence, 6:18 PM PT
Bought
14 × 68¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMDown55%Correct+$13.18+140%41¢ to 100¢settled$9.430.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$13.18 (+140%)after $0.39 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 55%, medium confidence, 6:32 PM PT
Bought
23 × 41¢ = $9.43, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown25%Missed−$10.00−106%16¢ to 0¢settled$9.440.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.00 (−106%)after $0.56 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 25%, low confidence, 6:48 PM PT
Bought
59 × 16¢ = $9.44, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMUp22%Correct+$75.95+803%11¢ to 100¢settled$9.460.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$75.95 (+803%)after $0.59 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 22%, low confidence, 7:03 PM PT
Bought
86 × 11¢ = $9.46, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMUp45%Correct+$31.38+311%24¢ to 100¢settled$10.081.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$31.38 (+311%)after $0.54 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 45%, low confidence, 7:18 PM PT
Bought
42 × 24¢ = $10.08, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown61%Missed−$10.55−103%51¢ to 0¢settled$10.201.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.55 (−103%)after $0.35 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 61%, medium confidence, 7:32 PM PT
Bought
20 × 51¢ = $10.20, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMDown49%Missed−$10.82−104%37¢ to 0¢settled$10.361.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.82 (−104%)after $0.46 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 49%, low confidence, 7:47 PM PT
Bought
28 × 37¢ = $10.36, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMDown37%Missed−$10.79−105%25¢ to 0¢settled$10.251.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.79 (−105%)after $0.54 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 37%, low confidence, 8:02 PM PT
Bought
41 × 25¢ = $10.25, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMUp32%Missed−$10.62−105%24¢ to 0¢settled$10.081.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.62 (−105%)after $0.54 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 32%, low confidence, 8:17 PM PT
Bought
42 × 24¢ = $10.08, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMDown43%Missed−$10.59−105%28¢ to 0¢settled$10.081.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.59 (−105%)after $0.51 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 43%, low confidence, 8:33 PM PT
Bought
36 × 28¢ = $10.08, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp39%Correct+$22.61+228%30¢ to 100¢settled$9.901.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$22.61 (+228%)after $0.49 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 39%, low confidence, 8:51 PM PT
Bought
33 × 30¢ = $9.90, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMUp56%Missed−$10.62−105%35¢ to 0¢settled$10.151.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.62 (−105%)after $0.47 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 56%, medium confidence, 9:02 PM PT
Bought
29 × 35¢ = $10.15, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMDown54%Missed−$10.17−104%39¢ to 0¢settled$9.751.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.17 (−104%)after $0.42 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 54%, medium confidence, 9:17 PM PT
Bought
25 × 39¢ = $9.75, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMDown51%Missed−$10.03−104%46¢ to 0¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.03 (−104%)after $0.37 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 51%, medium confidence, 9:32 PM PT
Bought
21 × 46¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMDown76%Missed−$10.15−103%58¢ to 0¢settled$9.861.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.15 (−103%)after $0.29 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 76%, high confidence, 9:47 PM PT
Bought
17 × 58¢ = $9.86, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMUp50%Missed−$10.06−104%42¢ to 0¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.06 (−104%)after $0.40 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 50%, medium confidence, 10:02 PM PT
Bought
23 × 42¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMDown56%Missed−$10.06−104%42¢ to 0¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.06 (−104%)after $0.40 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 56%, medium confidence, 10:17 PM PT
Bought
23 × 42¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp46%Missed−$9.66−104%37¢ to 0¢settled$9.250.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.66 (−104%)after $0.41 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 46%, low confidence, 10:32 PM PT
Bought
25 × 37¢ = $9.25, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMDown76%Correct+$7.18+75%56¢ to 100¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$7.18 (+75%)after $0.30 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 76%, high confidence, 10:47 PM PT
Bought
17 × 56¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMUp47%Correct+$13.41+146%40¢ to 100¢settled$9.200.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$13.41 (+146%)after $0.39 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 47%, low confidence, 11:02 PM PT
Bought
23 × 40¢ = $9.20, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown24%Missed−$10.26−106%17¢ to 0¢settled$9.691.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.26 (−106%)after $0.57 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 24%, low confidence, 11:17 PM PT
Bought
57 × 17¢ = $9.69, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp51%Missed−$9.76−104%39¢ to 0¢settled$9.360.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.76 (−104%)after $0.40 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 51%, medium confidence, 11:32 PM PT
Bought
24 × 39¢ = $9.36, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMUp53%Missed−$9.84−104%43¢ to 0¢settled$9.460.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.84 (−104%)after $0.38 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 53%, medium confidence, 11:47 PM PT
Bought
22 × 43¢ = $9.46, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 20, 2026

This file holds all of EUR/USD’s trading for Oct 19, 2026.

30Windows
30Calls
30Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

ffc6b8d0420154bfdf283232261898f68ee7f82ed14e321ad04bee1d8f77b447

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

How a fingerprint works

A fingerprint is a code worked out from every character in a file. Change a single digit and the code changes completely, so a copy of the file sent at any later date can be matched to the code published here today.

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Request the file

Corrections

We never edit a published day. If anything turns out to be wrong, we add a dated note here and leave the original numbers and file in place.

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Request the original file for Oct 19, 2026

October 19 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent EUR/USD make money on October 19, 2026?: No. EUR/USD lost $57.22 on a $1,000 bankroll: 7 of 30 calls right, 7 tickets won and 23 lost.
What is a Kalshi 15-minute EUR/USD contract?: A yes-or-no contract on whether EUR/USD finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?: Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: EUR/USD’s record since launch is −$88.49. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

Daily log result

Oct 19, 2026

Started with A fresh $1,000 every day since launch, Oct 18: wins and losses never carry into the next day.

Ended with: $942.78
Day, net: −$57.22

Peak bankroll used$66.38

$933.62 (93%) never touched · 30 tickets

Calls right: 7 of 300 passes · 30 windows
Tickets: 7 won, 23 lost
All-time calls right: 7 of 32since Oct 18
Since launch: −$88.497 won, 25 lost

Versions 1.1 and 2.0 · patch notes

Watch EUR/USD on the EUR/USD desk

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EUR/USD places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.

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AI agent EUR/USD’s EUR/USD (euro) 15-minute log, October 19, 2026

Week of October 18

Trading sessions

Pre-market

US data

US open

Midday

Final hour

After the close

Futures and Tokyo

China open