AI trading agent · Daily log · USD/CAD (Canadian dollar) 15-minute · Versions 1.1 and 2.0

AI agent USD/CAD’s USD/CAD (Canadian dollar) 15-minute log, October 19, 2026

−$150.60 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 18 of 39 calls right. 18 tickets won, 21 lost.

On Monday, October 19, 2026, Agent USD/CAD called 39 of 39 USD/CAD 15-minute windows and got 18 right. USD/CAD bought 39 tickets, only on the called side: 18 won and 21 lost, for −$150.60 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $161.74. USD/CAD places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 20, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 18

Calendar

October 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
				1	2	3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
18+$2	19−$151	20+$80	21−$43	22+$15	23	24
25	26	27	28	29	30	31

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

Week through Thu Oct 22: −$97.69 · highest peak $161.74 (Mon) · 205 of 320 calls right · 193 won, 115 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Before the US open

12–6:30 AM

−$72.640 of 6 right · 6 tickets

12–5:30 AM
Pre-market
−$72.64
0 of 6 right · 6 tickets
No winning ticket
5:30–6:30 AM
US data
Closed
No windows
No market this session

US market open

6:30 AM–1 PM

−$19.280 of 2 right · 2 tickets

6:30–7:30 AM
US open
Closed
No windows
No market this session
7:30 AM–12 PM
Midday
−$19.28
0 of 2 right · 2 tickets
No winning ticket
12–1 PM
Final hour
Closed
No windows
No market this session

After the US close

1 PM–12 AM

−$58.6818 of 31 right · 31 tickets

Best session
1–3 PM
After the close
+$33.42
1 of 2 right · 2 tickets
Winner1:45–2:00 PM+$43.46
3–6:30 PM
Futures and Tokyo
−$34.34
4 of 7 right · 7 tickets
Winner5:45–6:00 PM+$1.97
6:30 PM–12 AM
China open
−$57.76
13 of 22 right · 22 tickets
Winner10:45–11:00 PM+$3.42

Best ticket: +$43.461:45–2:00 PM, Down
Worst ticket: −$21.1612:30–12:45 AM, Up
Biggest ticket: $19.9112:30–12:45 AM
How tickets closed: 0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 39 held

Trade log

Every window, October 19

−$150.60 closed · 18 won, 21 lost · 18 of 39 calls right · biggest ticket $19.91

12:30 AM–to 12:45 AMUp25%Missed−$21.16−106%11¢ to 0¢settled$19.912.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$21.16 (−106%)after $1.25 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 25%, low confidence, 12:39 AM PT
Bought
181 × 11¢ = $19.91, 2.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
1:30 AM–to 1:45 AMDown18%Missed−$10.14−106%20¢ to 0¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.14 (−106%)after $0.54 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 18%, low confidence, 1:39 AM PT
Bought
48 × 20¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
2:45 AM–to 3:00 AMDown7%Missed−$10.30−107%6¢ to 0¢settled$9.661.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.30 (−107%)after $0.64 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 7%, low confidence, 2:56 AM PT
Bought
161 × 6¢ = $9.66, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
3:45 AM–to 4:00 AMUp18%Missed−$1.26−106%17¢ to 0¢settled$1.190.1%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$1.26 (−106%)after $0.07 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 18%, low confidence, 3:58 AM PT
Bought
7 × 17¢ = $1.19, 0.1% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
4:30 AM–to 4:45 AMUp22%Missed−$20.08−106%19¢ to 0¢settled$19.001.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$20.08 (−106%)after $1.08 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 22%, low confidence, 4:43 AM PT
Bought
100 × 19¢ = $19.00, 1.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:00 AM–to 5:15 AMUp33%Missed−$9.70−105%23¢ to 0¢settled$9.200.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.70 (−105%)after $0.50 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 33%, low confidence, 5:09 AM PT
Bought
40 × 23¢ = $9.20, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 AM–to 11:00 AMDown7%Missed−$9.80−107%8¢ to 0¢settled$9.200.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.80 (−107%)after $0.60 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 7%, low confidence, 10:55 AM PT
Bought
115 × 8¢ = $9.20, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:00 AM–to 11:15 AMDown22%Missed−$9.48−105%25¢ to 0¢settled$9.000.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.48 (−105%)after $0.48 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 22%, low confidence, 11:10 AM PT
Bought
36 × 25¢ = $9.00, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
1:45 PM–to 2:00 PMDown18%Correct+$43.46+482%17¢ to 100¢settled$9.010.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$43.46 (+482%)after $0.53 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 18%, low confidence, 1:56 PM PT
Bought
53 × 17¢ = $9.01, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
2:00 PM–to 2:15 PMUp18%Missed−$10.04−106%19¢ to 0¢settled$9.500.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.04 (−106%)after $0.54 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 18%, low confidence, 2:11 PM PT
Bought
50 × 19¢ = $9.50, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
3:30 PM–to 3:45 PMUp22%Missed−$9.91−106%20¢ to 0¢settled$9.380.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.91 (−106%)after $0.53 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 22%, low confidence, 3:39 PM PT
Bought
47 × 20¢ = $9.38, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
4:15 PM–to 4:30 PMDown22%Missed−$9.75−106%22¢ to 0¢settled$9.240.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.75 (−106%)after $0.51 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 22%, low confidence, 4:24 PM PT
Bought
42 × 22¢ = $9.24, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMUp25%Missed−$19.50−106%12¢ to 0¢settled$18.361.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$19.50 (−106%)after $1.14 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 25%, low confidence, 5:24 PM PT
Bought
153 × 12¢ = $18.36, 1.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMDown81%Correct+$0.42+5%95¢ to 100¢settled$8.550.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.42 (+5%)after $0.03 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 81%, high confidence, 5:37 PM PT
Bought
9 × 95¢ = $8.55, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMUp60%Correct+$1.97+22%81¢ to 100¢settled$8.910.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.97 (+22%)after $0.12 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 60%, medium confidence, 5:51 PM PT
Bought
11 × 81¢ = $8.91, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown79%Correct+$1.12+13%88¢ to 100¢settled$8.800.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.12 (+13%)after $0.08 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 79%, high confidence, 6:08 PM PT
Bought
10 × 88¢ = $8.80, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown84%Correct+$1.31+15%86¢ to 100¢settled$8.600.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.31 (+15%)after $0.09 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 84%, very high confidence, 6:21 PM PT
Bought
10 × 86¢ = $8.60, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMUp68%Correct+$1.31+15%86¢ to 100¢settled$8.600.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.31 (+15%)after $0.09 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 68%, medium confidence, 6:36 PM PT
Bought
10 × 86¢ = $8.60, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown70%Correct+$2.49+30%76¢ to 100¢settled$8.360.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.49 (+30%)after $0.15 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 70%, medium confidence, 6:51 PM PT
Bought
11 × 76¢ = $8.36, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMDown51%Missed−$9.35−104%45¢ to 0¢settled$9.000.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.35 (−104%)after $0.35 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 51%, medium confidence, 7:07 PM PT
Bought
20 × 45¢ = $9.00, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMUp90%Missed−$8.50−100%94¢ to 0¢settled$8.460.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$8.50 (−100%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 90%, very high confidence, 7:21 PM PT
Bought
9 × 94¢ = $8.46, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMUp60%Missed−$9.08−103%55¢ to 0¢settled$8.800.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.08 (−103%)after $0.28 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 60%, medium confidence, 7:36 PM PT
Bought
16 × 55¢ = $8.80, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMDown75%Correct+$2.49+30%76¢ to 100¢settled$8.360.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.49 (+30%)after $0.15 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 75%, high confidence, 7:51 PM PT
Bought
11 × 76¢ = $8.36, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMDown97%Correct+$0.25+3%97¢ to 100¢settled$8.730.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.25 (+3%)after $0.02 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 97%, very high confidence, 8:06 PM PT
Bought
9 × 97¢ = $8.73, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMDown80%Missed−$8.21−101%81¢ to 0¢settled$8.100.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$8.21 (−101%)after $0.11 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 80%, high confidence, 8:21 PM PT
Bought
10 × 81¢ = $8.10, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMDown67%Correct+$3.19+37%72¢ to 100¢settled$8.640.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.19 (+37%)after $0.17 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 67%, medium confidence, 8:36 PM PT
Bought
12 × 72¢ = $8.64, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp37%Missed−$8.97−104%41¢ to 0¢settled$8.610.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$8.97 (−104%)after $0.36 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 37%, low confidence, 8:51 PM PT
Bought
21 × 41¢ = $8.61, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMDown37%Missed−$8.97−103%51¢ to 0¢settled$8.670.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$8.97 (−103%)after $0.30 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 37%, low confidence, 9:08 PM PT
Bought
17 × 51¢ = $8.67, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMDown65%Correct+$1.60+19%83¢ to 100¢settled$8.300.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.60 (+19%)after $0.10 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 65%, medium confidence, 9:25 PM PT
Bought
10 × 83¢ = $8.30, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMUp89%Correct+$0.67+8%92¢ to 100¢settled$8.280.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.67 (+8%)after $0.05 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 89%, very high confidence, 9:36 PM PT
Bought
9 × 92¢ = $8.28, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMDown58%Correct+$1.69+21%82¢ to 100¢settled$8.200.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.69 (+21%)after $0.11 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 58%, medium confidence, 9:51 PM PT
Bought
10 × 82¢ = $8.20, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMUp24%Missed−$8.83−105%29¢ to 0¢settled$8.410.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$8.83 (−105%)after $0.42 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 24%, low confidence, 10:08 PM PT
Bought
29 × 29¢ = $8.41, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMDown72%Correct+$1.69+21%82¢ to 100¢settled$8.200.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.69 (+21%)after $0.11 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 72%, medium confidence, 10:21 PM PT
Bought
10 × 82¢ = $8.20, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp21%Missed−$9.09−106%20¢ to 0¢settled$8.600.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.09 (−106%)after $0.49 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 21%, low confidence, 10:36 PM PT
Bought
43 × 20¢ = $8.60, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMUp67%Correct+$3.42+41%70¢ to 100¢settled$8.400.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.42 (+41%)after $0.18 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 67%, medium confidence, 10:51 PM PT
Bought
12 × 70¢ = $8.40, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMDown90%Correct+$0.29+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$7.680.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.29 (+4%)after $0.03 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 90%, very high confidence, 11:07 PM PT
Bought
8 × 96¢ = $7.68, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown10%Missed−$9.09−107%6¢ to 0¢settled$8.520.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.09 (−107%)after $0.57 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 10%, low confidence, 11:21 PM PT
Bought
142 × 6¢ = $8.52, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp57%Correct+$1.98+25%79¢ to 100¢settled$7.900.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.98 (+25%)after $0.12 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 57%, medium confidence, 11:36 PM PT
Bought
10 × 79¢ = $7.90, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close
11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown78%Correct+$1.26+16%85¢ to 100¢settled$7.650.8%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.26 (+16%)after $0.09 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 78%, high confidence, 11:51 PM PT
Bought
9 × 85¢ = $7.65, 0.8% of the day’s $1,000
Plan
Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 20, 2026

This file holds all of USD/CAD’s trading for Oct 19, 2026.

39Windows
39Calls
39Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

22d2ac3542bf1aabe1664d609fc15f0f6c6e3378f7e8cc39479d61c1f38a3679

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

How a fingerprint works

A fingerprint is a code worked out from every character in a file. Change a single digit and the code changes completely, so a copy of the file sent at any later date can be matched to the code published here today.

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Corrections

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Request the original file for Oct 19, 2026

October 19 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent USD/CAD make money on October 19, 2026?: No. USD/CAD lost $150.60 on a $1,000 bankroll: 18 of 39 calls right, 18 tickets won and 21 lost. The best session was After the close (+$33.42) and the worst was Pre-market (−$72.64).
What is a Kalshi 15-minute USD/CAD contract?: A yes-or-no contract on whether USD/CAD finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?: Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: USD/CAD’s record since launch is −$149.08. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

Daily log result

Oct 19, 2026

Started with A fresh $1,000 every day since launch, Oct 18: wins and losses never carry into the next day.

Ended with: $849.40
Day, net: −$150.60

Peak bankroll used$161.74

$838.26 (84%) never touched · 39 tickets

Calls right: 18 of 390 passes · 39 windows
Tickets: 18 won, 21 lost
All-time calls right: 19 of 44since Oct 18
Since launch: −$149.0819 won, 25 lost

Versions 1.1 and 2.0 · patch notes

Watch USD/CAD on the USD/CAD desk

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AI agent USD/CAD’s USD/CAD (Canadian dollar) 15-minute log, October 19, 2026

Week of October 18

Trading sessions

Pre-market

US data

US open

Midday

Final hour

After the close

Futures and Tokyo

China open