AI trading agent · Daily log · USD/CAD (Canadian dollar) 15-minute · Version 2.0

AI agent USD/CAD’s USD/CAD (Canadian dollar) 15-minute log, October 25, 2026

−$16.68 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 28 of 39 calls right. 23 tickets won, 11 lost.

On Sunday, October 25, 2026, Agent USD/CAD called 39 of 39 USD/CAD 15-minute windows and got 28 right. USD/CAD bought 34 tickets, only on the called side: 23 won and 11 lost, for −$16.68 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $33.73. USD/CAD places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 29, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 25

‹

Calendar

October 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
				1	2	3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
18+$2	19−$151	20+$80	21−$43	22+$15	23−$44	24
25−$17	26−$126	27−$14	28+$215	29−$82	30−$52	31

November 2026

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
1−$55	2−$59	3	4	5	6	7
8	9	10	11	12	13	14
15	16	17	18	19	20	21
22	23	24	25	26	27	28
29	30

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

›

Week through Fri Oct 30: −$74.70 · highest peak $138.07 (Mon) · 298 of 452 calls right · 274 won, 154 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Sunday

12 AM–3 PM

−$11.411 of 3 right · 3 tickets

12–6 AM
Sunday night
Closed
No windows
No market this session
6 AM–3 PM
Sunday day
−$11.41
1 of 3 right · 3 tickets
Winner2:30–2:45 PM+$9.16

The week reopens

3 PM–12 AM

−$5.2727 of 36 right · 31 tickets

3–6:30 PM
Futures and Tokyo
−$3.70
10 of 14 right · 12 tickets
Winner5:15–5:30 PM+$11.94
6:30 PM–12 AM
China open
−$1.57
17 of 22 right · 19 tickets
Winner10:15–10:30 PM+$6.13

Best ticket: +$11.945:15–5:30 PM, Up
Worst ticket: −$10.565:30–5:45 PM, Up
Biggest ticket: $10.005:30–5:45 PM
How tickets closed: 0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 34 held

Trade log

Every window, October 25

−$16.68 closed · 23 won, 11 lost · 28 of 39 calls right · biggest ticket $10.00

2:15 PM–to 2:30 PMUp25%Missed−$10.52−106%11¢ to 0¢settled$9.901.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.52 (−106%)after $0.62 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 25%, low confidence, 2:25 PM PT
Bought
90 × 11¢ = $9.90, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.52 · To win $79.48 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
2:30 PM–to 2:45 PMUp37%Correct+$9.16+96%50¢ to 100¢settled$9.500.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$9.16 (+96%)after $0.34 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 37%, low confidence, 2:41 PM PT
Bought
19 × 50¢ = $9.50, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.84 · To win $9.16 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
2:45 PM–to 3:00 PMUp47%Missed−$10.05−102%76¢ to 0¢settled$9.881.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.05 (−102%)after $0.17 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 47%, low confidence, 2:55 PM PT
Bought
13 × 76¢ = $9.88, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.05 · To win $2.95 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
3:00 PM–to 3:15 PMDown100%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMDown62%Correct+$3.45+37%72¢ to 100¢settled$9.360.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.45 (+37%)after $0.19 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 62%, medium confidence, 3:21 PM PT
Bought
13 × 72¢ = $9.36, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.55 · To win $3.45 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
3:30 PM–to 3:45 PMDown26%Missed−$10.22−105%27¢ to 0¢settled$9.721.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.22 (−105%)after $0.50 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 26%, low confidence, 3:38 PM PT
Bought
36 × 27¢ = $9.72, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.22 · To win $25.78 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
3:45 PM–to 4:00 PMUp53%Correct+$6.13+64%60¢ to 100¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$6.13 (+64%)after $0.27 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 53%, medium confidence, 3:51 PM PT
Bought
16 × 60¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.87 · To win $6.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
4:00 PM–to 4:15 PMUp98%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
4:15 PM–to 4:30 PMUp66%Missed−$9.55−102%72¢ to 0¢settled$9.360.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.55 (−102%)after $0.19 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 66%, medium confidence, 4:21 PM PT
Bought
13 × 72¢ = $9.36, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.55 · To win $3.45 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
4:30 PM–to 4:45 PMDown50%Correct+$6.44+69%58¢ to 100¢settled$9.280.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$6.44 (+69%)after $0.28 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 50%, medium confidence, 4:36 PM PT
Bought
16 × 58¢ = $9.28, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.56 · To win $6.44 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
4:45 PM–to 5:00 PMDown90%Correct+$0.37+4%96¢ to 100¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.37 (+4%)after $0.03 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 90%, very high confidence, 4:51 PM PT
Bought
10 × 96¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.63 · To win $0.37 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMUp66%Correct+$5.45+59%62¢ to 100¢settled$9.300.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$5.45 (+59%)after $0.25 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 66%, medium confidence, 5:06 PM PT
Bought
15 × 62¢ = $9.30, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.55 · To win $5.45 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMUp34%Correct+$11.94+123%44¢ to 100¢settled$9.681.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$11.94 (+123%)after $0.38 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 34%, low confidence, 5:23 PM PT
Bought
22 × 44¢ = $9.68, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.06 · To win $11.94 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMUp18%Missed−$10.56−106%20¢ to 0¢settled$10.001.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.56 (−106%)after $0.56 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 18%, low confidence, 5:38 PM PT
Bought
50 × 20¢ = $10.00, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.56 · To win $39.44 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMDown61%Correct+$1.44+15%86¢ to 100¢settled$9.460.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.44 (+15%)after $0.10 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 61%, medium confidence, 5:51 PM PT
Bought
11 × 86¢ = $9.46, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.56 · To win $1.44 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown90%Correct+$1.23+13%88¢ to 100¢settled$9.681.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.23 (+13%)after $0.09 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 90%, very high confidence, 6:06 PM PT
Bought
11 × 88¢ = $9.68, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.77 · To win $1.23 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown62%Missed−$9.82−103%56¢ to 0¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.82 (−103%)after $0.30 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 62%, medium confidence, 6:21 PM PT
Bought
17 × 56¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.82 · To win $7.18 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMUp83%Correct+$0.46+5%95¢ to 100¢settled$9.500.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.46 (+5%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 83%, high confidence, 6:36 PM PT
Bought
10 × 95¢ = $9.50, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.54 · To win $0.46 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown51%Missed−$9.56−103%58¢ to 0¢settled$9.280.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$9.56 (−103%)after $0.28 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 51%, medium confidence, 6:51 PM PT
Bought
16 × 58¢ = $9.28, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.56 · To win $6.44 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMDown60%Correct+$4.26+45%68¢ to 100¢settled$9.521.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$4.26 (+45%)after $0.22 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 60%, medium confidence, 7:06 PM PT
Bought
14 × 68¢ = $9.52, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.74 · To win $4.26 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMDown71%Correct+$2.38+25%79¢ to 100¢settled$9.480.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.38 (+25%)after $0.14 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 71%, medium confidence, 7:21 PM PT
Bought
12 × 79¢ = $9.48, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.62 · To win $2.38 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown79%Correct+$2.61+28%77¢ to 100¢settled$9.240.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.61 (+28%)after $0.15 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 79%, high confidence, 7:36 PM PT
Bought
12 × 77¢ = $9.24, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.39 · To win $2.61 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMUp82%Correct+$2.29+24%80¢ to 100¢settled$9.571.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$2.29 (+24%)after $0.14 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 82%, high confidence, 7:51 PM PT
Bought
12 × 80¢ = $9.57, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.71 · To win $2.29 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMUp95%Correct+$0.56+6%94¢ to 100¢settled$9.400.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.56 (+6%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 95%, very high confidence, 8:09 PM PT
Bought
10 × 94¢ = $9.40, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.44 · To win $0.56 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMDown99%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMDown46%Missed−$10.15−104%49¢ to 0¢settled$9.801.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.15 (−104%)after $0.35 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 46%, low confidence, 8:36 PM PT
Bought
20 × 49¢ = $9.80, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.15 · To win $9.85 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp92%Correct+$0.46+5%95¢ to 100¢settled$9.500.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$0.46 (+5%)after $0.04 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 92%, very high confidence, 8:51 PM PT
Bought
10 × 95¢ = $9.50, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.54 · To win $0.46 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMDown42%Correct+$5.30+56%63¢ to 100¢settled$9.450.9%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$5.30 (+56%)after $0.25 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 42%, low confidence, 9:07 PM PT
Bought
15 × 63¢ = $9.45, 0.9% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.70 · To win $5.30 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMUp79%Correct+$1.13+12%89¢ to 100¢settled$9.791.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$1.13 (+12%)after $0.08 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 79%, high confidence, 9:21 PM PT
Bought
11 × 89¢ = $9.79, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.87 · To win $1.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMDown58%Correct+$5.15+54%64¢ to 100¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$5.15 (+54%)after $0.25 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was correct.
The call
Down at 58%, medium confidence, 9:36 PM PT
Bought
15 × 64¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.85 · To win $5.15 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMUp61%Correct+$3.07+31%75¢ to 100¢settled$9.751.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.07 (+31%)after $0.18 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 61%, medium confidence, 9:53 PM PT
Bought
13 × 75¢ = $9.75, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.93 · To win $3.07 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMDown85%Missed−$4.30−101%85¢ to 0¢settled$4.250.4%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$4.30 (−101%)after $0.05 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 85%, very high confidence, 10:06 PM PT
Bought
5 × 85¢ = $4.25, 0.4% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $4.30 · To win $0.70 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMUp56%Correct+$6.13+64%60¢ to 100¢settled$9.601.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$6.13 (+64%)after $0.27 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 56%, medium confidence, 10:21 PM PT
Bought
16 × 60¢ = $9.60, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.87 · To win $6.13 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMUp64%Correct+$5.81+59%62¢ to 100¢settled$9.921.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$5.81 (+59%)after $0.27 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 64%, medium confidence, 10:36 PM PT
Bought
16 × 62¢ = $9.92, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.19 · To win $5.81 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMUp86%Missed−$10.15−103%58¢ to 0¢settled$9.861.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.15 (−103%)after $0.29 in fees
The window
Went DownThe call was missed.
The call
Up at 86%, very high confidence, 10:51 PM PT
Bought
17 × 58¢ = $9.86, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.15 · To win $6.85 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMUp100%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMDown97%CorrectNo ticketNot tradedat that price$00%
11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp63%Correct+$3.20+33%74¢ to 100¢settled$9.621.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 100¢
Net
+$3.20 (+33%)after $0.18 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was correct.
The call
Up at 63%, medium confidence, 11:38 PM PT
Bought
13 × 74¢ = $9.62, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $9.80 · To win $3.20 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close
11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown51%Missed−$10.22−103%52¢ to 0¢settled$9.881.0%Hold
Closed
Settled at 0¢
Net
−$10.22 (−103%)after $0.34 in fees
The window
Went UpThe call was missed.
The call
Down at 51%, medium confidence, 11:51 PM PT
Bought
19 × 52¢ = $9.88, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
Risk · To win
Risk $10.22 · To win $8.78 at a $1 settle
Plan
Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 29, 2026

This file holds all of USD/CAD’s trading for Oct 25, 2026.

39Windows
39Calls
34Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

4d9a467a797869c46cd3da1e874df2483002cd4ea64eb3f583295985b12390f4

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

How a fingerprint works

A fingerprint is a code worked out from every character in a file. Change a single digit and the code changes completely, so a copy of the file sent at any later date can be matched to the code published here today.

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Corrections

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October 25 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent USD/CAD make money on October 25, 2026?: No. USD/CAD lost $16.68 on a $1,000 bankroll: 28 of 39 calls right, 23 tickets won and 11 lost.
What is a Kalshi 15-minute USD/CAD contract?: A yes-or-no contract on whether USD/CAD finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?: Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: USD/CAD’s record since launch is −$157.91. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

Daily log result

Oct 25, 2026

Started with A fresh $1,000 every day since launch, Oct 18: wins and losses never carry into the next day.

Ended with: $983.32
Day, net: −$16.68

Peak bankroll used$33.73

$966.27 (97%) never touched · 34 tickets

Calls right: 28 of 390 passes · 39 windows
Tickets: 23 won, 11 lost
All-time calls right: 269 of 413since Oct 18
Since launch: −$157.91248 won, 144 lost

Version 2.0 · patch notes

Watch USD/CAD on the USD/CAD desk

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