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AI trading agent · Daily log · WTI crude oil 15-minute · Version 1.3

AI agent Lee’s WTI crude oil 15-minute log, October 25, 2026

−$204.00 on a fresh $5,000 roll. 24 of 36 calls right. 24 tickets won, 12 lost.

On Sunday, October 25, 2026, Agent Lee called 36 of 36 WTI oil 15-minute windows and got 24 right. Lee bought 36 tickets, only on the called side: 24 won and 12 lost, for −$204.00 on a fresh $5,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $458.95. Lee places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 29, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 25

‹
Calendar
October 2026
SMTWTFS
123
45678910
11121314151617
1819+$320−$54621−$34622−$8923+$6324
25−$20426−$4527−$48628−$19829+$26830−$21731
November 2026
SMTWTFS
1−$452−$57334567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

›
  1. Sun 25−$204.00peak $458.95start $5k
  2. Mon 26−$44.96peak $413.56start $5k
  3. Tue 27−$485.68peak $598.71start $5k
  4. Wed 28−$198.44peak $499.40start $5k
  5. Thu 29+$267.73peak $289.70start $5k
  6. Fri 30−$217.38peak $396.78start $5k
  7. Sat 31Closed

Week through Fri Oct 30: −$882.73 · highest peak $598.71 (Tue) · 375 of 491 calls right · 360 won, 114 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $5,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Sunday

12 AM–3 PM

No tickets0 of 0 right

  1. 12–6 AM

    Sunday night

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

  2. 6 AM–3 PM

    Sunday day

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

The week reopens

3 PM–12 AM

−$204.0024 of 36 right · 36 tickets

  1. 3–6:30 PM

    Futures and Tokyo

    −$145.37

    10 of 14 right · 14 tickets

    Winner6:00–6:15 PM+$47.20

  2. 6:30 PM–12 AM

    China open

    −$58.63

    14 of 22 right · 22 tickets

    Winner10:45–11:00 PM+$31.05

Best ticket
+$47.206:00–6:15 PM, Down
Worst ticket
−$101.354:15–4:30 PM, Up
Biggest ticket
$100.574:15–4:30 PM
How tickets closed
0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 36 held

Trade log

Every window, October 25

−$204.00 closed · 24 won, 12 lost · 24 of 36 calls right · biggest ticket $100.57

  1. 3:00 PM–to 3:15 PMDown99%Correct+$0.03+3%96¢ to 100¢settled$0.96<0.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$0.03 (+3%)after $0.01 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 99%, very high confidence, 3:05 PM PT
    Bought
    1 × 96¢ = $0.96, <0.1% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $0.97 · To win $0.03 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  2. 3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMUp62%Correct+$6.95+14%87¢ to 100¢settled$49.591.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$6.95 (+14%)after $0.46 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 62%, medium confidence, 3:23 PM PT
    Bought
    57 × 87¢ = $49.59, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $50.05 · To win $6.95 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  3. 3:30 PM–to 3:45 PMUp69%Correct+$3.97+8%92¢ to 100¢settled$49.751.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$3.97 (+8%)after $0.28 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 69%, medium confidence, 3:38 PM PT
    Bought
    54 × 92¢ = $49.75, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $50.03 · To win $3.97 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  4. 3:45 PM–to 4:00 PMUp43%Correct+$25.72+51%65¢ to 100¢settled$50.051.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$25.72 (+51%)after $1.23 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 43%, low confidence, 3:53 PM PT
    Bought
    77 × 65¢ = $50.05, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $51.28 · To win $25.72 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  5. 4:00 PM–to 4:15 PMUp81%Correct+$9.26+9%91¢ to 100¢settled$100.102.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$9.26 (+9%)after $0.64 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 81%, high confidence, 4:07 PM PT
    Bought
    110 × 91¢ = $100.10, 2.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $100.74 · To win $9.26 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  6. 4:15 PM–to 4:30 PMUp73%Missed−$101.35−101%89¢ to 0¢settled$100.572.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$101.35 (−101%)after $0.78 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 73%, medium confidence, 4:21 PM PT
    Bought
    113 × 89¢ = $100.57, 2.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $101.35 · To win $11.65 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  7. 4:30 PM–to 4:45 PMDown75%Missed−$49.73−102%74¢ to 0¢settled$48.841.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$49.73 (−102%)after $0.89 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 75%, high confidence, 4:38 PM PT
    Bought
    66 × 74¢ = $48.84, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $49.73 · To win $16.27 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  8. 4:45 PM–to 5:00 PMDown74%Correct+$12.10+25%79¢ to 100¢settled$48.191.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$12.10 (+25%)after $0.71 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 74%, high confidence, 4:53 PM PT
    Bought
    61 × 79¢ = $48.19, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.90 · To win $12.10 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  9. 5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMDown87%Correct+$6.92+14%87¢ to 100¢settled$48.631.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$6.92 (+14%)after $0.45 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 87%, very high confidence, 5:08 PM PT
    Bought
    56 × 87¢ = $48.63, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $49.08 · To win $6.92 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  10. 5:15 PM–to 5:30 PMUp41%Correct+$41.63+85%53¢ to 100¢settled$48.761.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$41.63 (+85%)after $1.61 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 41%, low confidence, 5:23 PM PT
    Bought
    92 × 53¢ = $48.76, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $50.37 · To win $41.63 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  11. 5:30 PM–to 5:45 PMDown52%Correct+$1.38+88%52¢ to 100¢settled$1.56<0.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$1.38 (+88%)after $0.06 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 52%, medium confidence, 5:38 PM PT
    Bought
    3 × 52¢ = $1.56, <0.1% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $1.62 · To win $1.38 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  12. 5:45 PM–to 6:00 PMUp87%Missed−$99.39−101%88¢ to 0¢settled$98.562.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$99.39 (−101%)after $0.83 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 87%, very high confidence, 5:52 PM PT
    Bought
    112 × 88¢ = $98.56, 2.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $99.39 · To win $12.61 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  13. 6:00 PM–to 6:15 PMDown57%Correct+$47.20+98%50¢ to 100¢settled$48.101.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$47.20 (+98%)after $1.70 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 57%, medium confidence, 6:08 PM PT
    Bought
    97 × 50¢ = $48.10, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $49.80 · To win $47.20 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  14. 6:15 PM–to 6:30 PMDown68%Missed−$50.06−102%68¢ to 0¢settled$48.961.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$50.06 (−102%)after $1.10 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 68%, medium confidence, 6:23 PM PT
    Bought
    72 × 68¢ = $48.96, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $50.06 · To win $21.94 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  15. 6:30 PM–to 6:45 PMDown81%Missed−$48.69−102%76¢ to 0¢settled$47.881.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$48.69 (−102%)after $0.81 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 81%, high confidence, 6:38 PM PT
    Bought
    63 × 76¢ = $47.88, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.69 · To win $14.31 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  16. 6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown77%Correct+$15.16+32%75¢ to 100¢settled$48.001.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$15.16 (+32%)after $0.84 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 77%, high confidence, 6:53 PM PT
    Bought
    64 × 75¢ = $48.00, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.84 · To win $15.16 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  17. 7:00 PM–to 7:15 PMUp47%Correct+$30.65+64%60¢ to 100¢settled$48.001.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$30.65 (+64%)after $1.35 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 47%, low confidence, 7:08 PM PT
    Bought
    80 × 60¢ = $48.00, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $49.35 · To win $30.65 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  18. 7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMDown80%Correct+$7.68+18%84¢ to 100¢settled$42.840.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$7.68 (+18%)after $0.48 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 80%, high confidence, 7:23 PM PT
    Bought
    51 × 84¢ = $42.84, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $43.32 · To win $7.68 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  19. 7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown79%Missed−$48.69−102%76¢ to 0¢settled$47.881.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$48.69 (−102%)after $0.81 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 79%, high confidence, 7:38 PM PT
    Bought
    63 × 76¢ = $47.88, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.69 · To win $14.31 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  20. 7:45 PM–to 8:00 PMDown78%Correct+$8.58+18%84¢ to 100¢settled$47.881.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$8.58 (+18%)after $0.54 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 78%, high confidence, 7:53 PM PT
    Bought
    57 × 84¢ = $47.88, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.42 · To win $8.58 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  21. 8:00 PM–to 8:15 PMUp69%Missed−$1.51−102%74¢ to 0¢settled$1.48<0.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$1.51 (−102%)after $0.03 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 69%, medium confidence, 8:08 PM PT
    Bought
    2 × 74¢ = $1.48, <0.1% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $1.51 · To win $0.49 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  22. 8:15 PM–to 8:30 PMUp75%Missed−$49.03−103%60¢ to 0¢settled$47.701.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$49.03 (−103%)after $1.33 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 75%, high confidence, 8:23 PM PT
    Bought
    79 × 60¢ = $47.70, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $49.03 · To win $29.97 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  23. 8:30 PM–to 8:45 PMDown87%Missed−$47.61−101%81¢ to 0¢settled$46.980.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$47.61 (−101%)after $0.63 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 87%, very high confidence, 8:38 PM PT
    Bought
    58 × 81¢ = $46.98, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $47.61 · To win $10.39 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  24. 8:45 PM–to 9:00 PMUp94%Correct+$8.67+9%91¢ to 100¢settled$93.731.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$8.67 (+9%)after $0.60 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 94%, very high confidence, 8:50 PM PT
    Bought
    103 × 91¢ = $93.73, 1.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $94.33 · To win $8.67 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  25. 9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMDown50%Missed−$48.43−102%66¢ to 0¢settled$47.290.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$48.43 (−102%)after $1.14 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 50%, medium confidence, 9:08 PM PT
    Bought
    72 × 66¢ = $47.29, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.43 · To win $23.57 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  26. 9:15 PM–to 9:30 PMUp55%Missed−$47.77−103%58¢ to 0¢settled$46.400.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$47.77 (−103%)after $1.37 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 55%, medium confidence, 9:23 PM PT
    Bought
    80 × 58¢ = $46.40, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $47.77 · To win $32.23 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  27. 9:30 PM–to 9:45 PMUp43%Missed−$46.99−103%61¢ to 0¢settled$45.740.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$46.99 (−103%)after $1.25 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 43%, low confidence, 9:38 PM PT
    Bought
    75 × 61¢ = $45.74, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $46.99 · To win $28.01 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  28. 9:45 PM–to 10:00 PMUp57%Correct+$29.12+64%60¢ to 100¢settled$45.600.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$29.12 (+64%)after $1.28 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 57%, medium confidence, 9:53 PM PT
    Bought
    76 × 60¢ = $45.60, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $46.88 · To win $29.12 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  29. 10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMUp81%Correct+$22.37+49%66¢ to 100¢settled$45.540.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$22.37 (+49%)after $1.09 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 81%, high confidence, 10:08 PM PT
    Bought
    69 × 66¢ = $45.54, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $46.63 · To win $22.37 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  30. 10:15 PM–to 10:30 PMUp55%Correct+$30.65+67%59¢ to 100¢settled$46.020.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$30.65 (+67%)after $1.33 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 55%, medium confidence, 10:23 PM PT
    Bought
    78 × 59¢ = $46.02, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $47.35 · To win $30.65 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  31. 10:30 PM–to 10:45 PMDown96%Correct+$8.59+9%91¢ to 100¢settled$92.821.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$8.59 (+9%)after $0.59 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 96%, very high confidence, 10:37 PM PT
    Bought
    102 × 91¢ = $92.82, 1.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $93.41 · To win $8.59 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  32. 10:45 PM–to 11:00 PMDown60%Correct+$31.05+67%59¢ to 100¢settled$46.610.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$31.05 (+67%)after $1.34 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 60%, medium confidence, 10:53 PM PT
    Bought
    79 × 59¢ = $46.61, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $47.95 · To win $31.05 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  33. 11:00 PM–to 11:15 PMUp66%Correct+$22.01+47%67¢ to 100¢settled$46.900.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$22.01 (+47%)after $1.09 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 66%, medium confidence, 11:08 PM PT
    Bought
    70 × 67¢ = $46.90, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $47.99 · To win $22.01 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  34. 11:15 PM–to 11:30 PMUp62%Correct+$28.74+61%61¢ to 100¢settled$46.970.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$28.74 (+61%)after $1.29 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 62%, medium confidence, 11:23 PM PT
    Bought
    77 × 61¢ = $46.97, 0.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.26 · To win $28.74 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  35. 11:30 PM–to 11:45 PMUp96%Correct+$7.70+8%92¢ to 100¢settled$94.761.9%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$7.70 (+8%)after $0.54 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 96%, very high confidence, 11:37 PM PT
    Bought
    103 × 92¢ = $94.76, 1.9% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $95.30 · To win $7.70 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  36. 11:45 PM–to 12:00 AMDown71%Correct+$29.12+61%61¢ to 100¢settled$47.581.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$29.12 (+61%)after $1.30 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was correct.
    The call
    Down at 71%, medium confidence, 11:53 PM PT
    Bought
    78 × 61¢ = $47.58, 1.0% of the day’s $5,000
    Risk · To win
    Risk $48.88 · To win $29.12 at a $1 settle
    Plan
    Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 29, 2026

This file holds all of Lee’s trading for Oct 25, 2026.

  • 36Windows
  • 36Calls
  • 36Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

cb46b5f37e8be918b3e567570d66ae4d2f2ae22f729d91fc75448631286f475b

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

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October 25 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent Lee make money on October 25, 2026?
No. Lee lost $204.00 on a $5,000 bankroll: 24 of 36 calls right, 24 tickets won and 12 lost.
What is a Kalshi 15-minute WTI oil contract?
A yes-or-no contract on whether WTI oil finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?
Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: Lee’s record since launch is −$1,118.75. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

Lee places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.