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AI trading agent · Daily log · USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute · Versions 1.0 and 1.1

AI agent USD/JPY’s USD/JPY (Japanese yen) 15-minute log, October 18, 2026

+$21.93 on a fresh $1,000 roll. 3 of 8 calls right. 3 tickets won, 5 lost.

On Sunday, October 18, 2026, Agent USD/JPY called 8 of 8 USD/JPY 15-minute windows and got 3 right. USD/JPY bought 8 tickets, only on the called side: 3 won and 5 lost, for +$21.93 on a fresh $1,000 roll. The most of the roll in use at once was $20.88. USD/JPY places no real orders, and every result is graded on Kalshi’s settlement.

Saved after the day closed, Oct 20, 2026 · How this page is verified

Week of October 18

Calendar
October 2026
SMTWTFS
123
45678910
11121314151617
18+$2219+$1120−$12321+$2022−$1582324
25262728293031

Each date links to that day’s log. The shaded row is this week.

  1. Sun 18+$21.93peak $20.88start $1k
  2. Mon 19+$10.93peak $40.76start $1k
  3. Tue 20−$123.03peak $145.44start $1k
  4. Wed 21+$20.16peak $123.77start $1k
  5. Thu 22−$157.78peak $202.79start $1k
  6. Fri 23Not posted yet
  7. Sat 24Not posted yet

Week through Thu Oct 22: −$227.79 · highest peak $202.79 (Thu) · 178 of 316 calls right · 144 won, 137 lost

Each day starts at a fresh $1,000, so the week’s peak is the highest single day.

Trading sessions

No market · Pacific time (PDT)

Sunday

12 AM–3 PM

+$24.701 of 1 right · 1 ticket

  1. 12–6 AM

    Sunday night

    Closed

    No windows

    No market this session

  2. Best session

    6 AM–3 PM

    Sunday day

    +$24.70

    1 of 1 right · 1 ticket

    Winner2:15–2:30 PM+$24.70

The week reopens

3 PM–12 AM

−$2.772 of 7 right · 7 tickets

  1. 3–6:30 PM

    Futures and Tokyo

    −$10.80

    0 of 2 right · 2 tickets

    No winning ticket

  2. 6:30 PM–12 AM

    China open

    +$8.03

    2 of 5 right · 5 tickets

    Winner9:00–9:15 PM+$47.56

Best ticket
+$47.569:00–9:15 PM, Up
Worst ticket
−$22.2210:00–10:15 PM, Down
Biggest ticket
$20.8810:00–10:15 PM
How tickets closed
0 took profit · 0 sold or stopped · 8 held

Trade log

Every window, October 18

+$21.93 closed · 3 won, 5 lost · 3 of 8 calls right · biggest ticket $20.88

  1. 2:15 PM–to 2:30 PMUp33%Correct+$24.70+252%28¢ to 100¢settled$9.801.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$24.70 (+252%)after $0.50 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 33%, low confidence, 2:25 PM PT
    Bought
    35 × 28¢ = $9.80, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  2. 3:15 PM–to 3:30 PMDown33%Missed−$10.67−105%26¢ to 0¢settled$10.141.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.67 (−105%)after $0.53 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 33%, low confidence, 3:28 PM PT
    Bought
    39 × 26¢ = $10.14, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  3. 5:00 PM–to 5:15 PMUp7%Missed−$0.13−108%6¢ to 0¢settled$0.12<0.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$0.13 (−108%)after $0.01 in fees
    The window
    Went DownThe call was missed.
    The call
    Up at 7%, low confidence, 5:12 PM PT
    Bought
    2 × 6¢ = $0.12, <0.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  4. 6:45 PM–to 7:00 PMDown33%Missed−$10.36−105%29¢ to 0¢settled$9.861.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.36 (−105%)after $0.50 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 33%, low confidence, 6:55 PM PT
    Bought
    34 × 29¢ = $9.86, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  5. 7:15 PM–to 7:30 PMUp33%Correct+$3.42+228%30¢ to 100¢settled$1.500.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$3.42 (+228%)after $0.08 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 33%, low confidence, 7:24 PM PT
    Bought
    5 × 30¢ = $1.50, 0.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  6. 7:30 PM–to 7:45 PMDown22%Missed−$10.37−105%24¢ to 0¢settled$9.841.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$10.37 (−105%)after $0.53 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 22%, low confidence, 7:40 PM PT
    Bought
    41 × 24¢ = $9.84, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  7. 9:00 PM–to 9:15 PMUp18%Correct+$47.56+482%17¢ to 100¢settled$9.861.0%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 100¢
    Net
    +$47.56 (+482%)after $0.58 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was correct.
    The call
    Up at 18%, low confidence, 9:09 PM PT
    Bought
    58 × 17¢ = $9.86, 1.0% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close
  8. 10:00 PM–to 10:15 PMDown25%Missed−$22.22−106%9¢ to 0¢settled$20.882.1%Hold
    Closed
    Settled at 0¢
    Net
    −$22.22 (−106%)after $1.34 in fees
    The window
    Went UpThe call was missed.
    The call
    Down at 25%, low confidence, 10:12 PM PT
    Bought
    232 × 9¢ = $20.88, 2.1% of the day’s $1,000
    Plan
    Hold to the close

Oldest first. Entry at the ask, the fee on both fills and none on settlement. Every result is Kalshi’s settlement. Times in Pacific.

How this page is verified

Every result. On the record.

Every number on this page comes from one data file, saved after the day closed. Once published, the file is never edited, so any copy of the file can be checked against the fingerprints below.

Saved

Oct 20, 2026

This file holds all of USD/JPY’s trading for Oct 18, 2026.

  • 8Windows
  • 8Calls
  • 8Tickets

Trading data file

SHA-256 fingerprint

4a20365b28048fa0a94781a528d9cbae58e7766f96ecba29c79d9d3a11be2b45

Worked out from the whole day file: every window, every call and every ticket, with the times of each.

How a fingerprint works

A fingerprint is a code worked out from every character in a file. Change a single digit and the code changes completely, so a copy of the file sent at any later date can be matched to the code published here today.

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October 18 across the agents

Same day, other markets

Questions about this day

Did Agent USD/JPY make money on October 18, 2026?
Yes. USD/JPY made $21.93 on a $1,000 bankroll: 3 of 8 calls right, 3 tickets won and 5 lost. The best session was Sunday day (+$24.70) and the worst was Futures and Tokyo (−$10.80).
What is a Kalshi 15-minute USD/JPY contract?
A yes-or-no contract on whether USD/JPY finishes a 15-minute window above the window’s price to beat. Each contract pays $1.00 on a correct call and nothing otherwise, and Kalshi lists a new window every 15 minutes while the market is open. Our 15-minute markets lesson
Do AI trading bots make money?
Not reliably, and anyone promising otherwise is a warning sign. The CFTC’s advisory on AI trading bots says the technology “can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” A study of Kalshi contracts found traders who take the asking price lose about 32% on average. That is why every day here is published in full, losing days included: USD/JPY’s record since launch is +$21.93. CFTC advisory on AI trading bots

The Kalshi study (CEPR, 2026) · How our AI prediction market agents work · Learn the 15-minute markets

USD/JPY places no real orders, and an agent’s record is not advice. Prediction markets can lose you money fast; only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Not affiliated with Kalshi.