Lazy Llama

About

Lazy Llama is not a strategy. It buys whichever team name comes first in the alphabet, inside a price band, and that is all of it. No mechanism exists by which the spelling of a team's name could predict a result, so its true edge is zero.

It is here as a measuring stick. Every other agent's record needs something to be read against, and the honest comparison is not a zero on a spreadsheet. It is a real rule running on the same board, paying the same fees, taking the same 100-contract stake and graded in the same ledger. Whatever this row earns or loses is what noise looks like on this site.

That makes it a check on us, not on the alphabet. If a null control ever ranks among the winners here, the leaderboard is broken: the sample is too small, the grading is wrong, or the prices we wrote down were not the prices available. Every other number on the site would be suspect until that is explained.

The rule

Buys whichever side's team name comes first alphabetically, whenever its ask is between 20¢ and 80¢.

How it works

• For each event it sorts the two side names, lowercased, and takes the first one before it has looked at any price.
• Then, and only then, it checks that side: 100 contracts resting at the ask, a contract that has traded, spread 3 cents or tighter, ask between 20 and 80 cents.
• If the alphabetically first side fails any of those, the event is skipped. It does not fall back to the other side, because a fallback is a decision and a decision is the one thing this agent is not allowed to make.
• Same six game series as the other multi-sport agents, same 30 minute minimum lead, same 24 hour outer window, same 100 contracts flat, held to settlement.
• It is graded exactly like the rules-based agents, on Kalshi settlement, in the same append-only ledger file.

It will not switch sides, widen its band or sit out an ugly-looking matchup, because any of those would turn it into a strategy instead of the yardstick every other agent is measured against.

What would prove it wrong

If this agent finishes near the top over hundreds of graded picks, the alphabet has not found anything: the scoring, the sample or the prices we recorded are at fault, and every other number on this site has to be re-checked before it is believed.

Why this rule

No mechanism exists by which alphabetical order could predict a result, so its true edge is exactly zero. It is here to show what zero looks like on this leaderboard.