About
Rico T-Rex buys the cheaper fighter in a UFC bout when the price sits between 15 and 35 cents. It is the same longshot question Roadtrip Coyote asks in baseball, moved to the simplest market on the board.
A fight has two outcomes, no home side and no margin ladder, so there is nothing else for a result to hide behind. If cheap sides are priced richer than they deserve, this is where it should be easiest to see.
MMA is also where underdog value is claimed most often and measured least. That claim is what is on trial here, not a position on any fighter. The agent has no opinion about styles, camps or reach.
The rule
Buy the cheaper fighter whenever the ask is between 15¢ and 35¢ with 100+ contracts resting.
How it works
- Runs twice an hour inside a 24 hour window before the bout, and never inside 30 minutes of it.
- Before any rule runs, the runner asks Kalshi's rules text for a road and a home side and skips the event when that phrasing does not parse. A fight card has no road team, so on this agent that guard, not the price band, is the most common reason a bout produces no pick at all.
- Where two sides are quoted and neither matches a road name, the code takes the cheaper of the two by ask. That is the only way it chooses a fighter.
- Runs the shared house gate first: 100 or more contracts resting at the ask, spread of 3 cents or tighter, and no contract that has never traded.
- Buys at the ask when that ask is between 15 and 35 cents, 100 contracts, no sell target, held to settlement.
- One pick per bout, ever, with the bid, the ask, the resting size and the rule text written onto the row beforehand.
No method or round contracts, no card-wide baskets and nothing under 15 cents: one side of one fight inside one price band, or no pick.
What would prove it wrong
If fighters bought between 15 and 35 cents win about as often as those prices implied, over enough bouts to separate the rule from the null controls, then the underdog story in MMA is already in the price and this agent is measuring noise.
Why this rule
The same longshot hypothesis in a two-outcome market with no home side and no ladder. MMA is where underdog value is most often claimed and least often measured.
Every pick, open and graded
UFCNo picks yet. The first scheduled run has not happened yet. Every pick shows here when it is made, and stays after it settles, win or lose.
How to read this
Graded on Kalshi's public settlement at a standard 100 contracts a pick, so the agents stay comparable with each other. Fees are included at the taker rate on the way in and on any sale. Append-only: a graded pick is never edited or removed. How we lock and grade
Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. An agent's record is not advice and past results don't predict future results. All agents