Kalshi · Bitcoin 15-minute · Settled
Kalshi settled 96 bitcoin 15-minute windows in the session that ran from 12:00 AM Pacific on September 23, 2026 through 12:00 AM Pacific on September 24. Bitcoin closed above the price to beat in 42 of those windows and below it in 54. Every window below carries its Kalshi ticker, the price it had to beat, the value it settled at, and the YES price in cents at the open, the low, the high and the close.
Seven numbers that describe the session before any strategy is laid over it.
Two mechanical runs over the same 96 windows. Each one buys a single side at the price that window opened at, commits $100.00, doubles after a losing window and resets to $100.00 after a winning one. Every window has an opening price, so all 96 are played. The stake is the money that leaves the account: Kalshi's taker fee is inside it, not billed on top, so a $100.00 bet costs $100.00 and buys whatever contracts are left after the fee. A losing window loses exactly the stake.
Buys YES in every window
Buys NO in every window
Always down finished the day ahead, +$6,569.95 against +$1,519.19 for the always up run. That is the whole of what the day says.
Doubling after a loss only survives a short losing run. The always-down run lost 6 windows in a row, and the next window in that run needed $6,400.00 on a $100.00 base. A run of 10 would have needed $102,400.00 on one window to chase the same $100.00. Both sides finished positive on this particular day because September 23 never produced a long one-sided run, not because doubling works. A day that does produce one takes the stake past what most people have, and past Kalshi's book, before the run ends. This is one day of settled windows. It is not a strategy, and it is not advice.
Press play and the two runs walk the session together, one window at a time, from 12:00 AM Pacific. The left panel is the always-up run, the right is always-down, and both are placing their bets into the same 96 windows. Both accounts start the day with $200,000, the same number, so the two panels can be read against each other. Each shows the running total and what is actually in the account. The second one is the one that dies and recovers.
Both runs buy at the price the window opened at. That price is not a coin flip and it is not the same twice: across the 96 windows the YES open ran from 41 cents to 60, with a median of 51. Buying up at 62 cents and buying up at 38 cents are different bets, and the run takes whichever the window offered.
The assumption is the fill. The open is one print at the top of fifteen minutes. A real order placed into it can fill a little worse, and the spread and the depth of the book are not in these figures at all. So here is the size of that: move every single fill 1 cent against the trader and always up finishes +$550.64 instead of +$1,519.19, while always down finishes +$5,810.34 instead of +$6,569.95. One cent costs the down run $759.61, which is 12 percent of what it made. Read that as the size of the guess, not as a margin of error.
Every figure was settled when the page was built. Nothing is simulated in your browser, and with scripting off the full ledger below is still the whole record.
96 of 96 windows · started 12:00 AM PT with $200,000 each
Nothing placed yet. Both accounts hold $200,000.
11:45 PM PT close · $84,171.06 to beat · settled $84,179.19 · opened 53.0¢ on YES · ▲ Up
Always upAlways downBreak evenBitcoin, $83,771 to $86,478
| Window close (PT) | Settled | Always up | Always down | Kalshi | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid | Stake, all in | Result | P&L | Total | Paid | Stake, all in | Result | P&L | Total | |||
| 12:00 AM | ▼ Down | 55.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$100.00 | 45.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$113.98 | +$113.98 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▼ Down | 44.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$300.00 | 56.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$73.23 | +$187.21 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$388.18 | +$88.18 | 51.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$87.21 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▼ Down | 56.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$11.82 | 44.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$237.39 | +$324.60 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$237.39 | +$225.57 | 56.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$224.60 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$322.61 | 51.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$24.60 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$222.61 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$372.94 | +$397.54 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$22.61 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$498.54 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | 54.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$377.39 | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$109.46 | +$607.99 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$688.44 | +$311.05 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$507.99 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$211.05 | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$186.46 | +$694.45 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$11.05 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$795.45 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$372.94 | +$383.99 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$695.45 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$283.99 | 47.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$210.30 | +$905.75 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▼ Down | 51.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$83.99 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$1,002.79 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$292.93 | +$376.92 | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$902.79 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AM | ▲ Up | 54.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$79.41 | +$456.33 | 46.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$702.79 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$356.33 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$372.94 | +$1,075.73 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$156.33 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$1,176.73 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$243.67 | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | +$1,281.88 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$585.88 | +$342.20 | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,181.88 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$242.20 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$202.02 | +$1,383.90 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$42.20 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$1,484.90 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$357.80 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$1,585.90 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AM | ▲ Up | 47.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$841.23 | +$483.44 | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,485.90 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$383.44 | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$172.10 | +$1,658.00 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▲ Up | 54.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$158.81 | +$542.25 | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,558.00 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$639.29 | 51.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$1,358.00 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$539.29 | 52.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$344.21 | +$1,702.21 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AM | ▼ Down | 54.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$339.29 | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$109.46 | +$1,811.67 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$60.71 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$1,912.67 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$745.88 | +$685.17 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,812.67 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$118.68 | +$803.86 | 56.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$1,612.67 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$897.08 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$1,212.67 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AM | ▼ Down | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$797.08 | 53.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$661.34 | +$1,874.01 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$597.08 | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$86.04 | +$1,960.04 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$197.08 | 54.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$79.41 | +$2,039.45 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 AM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $799.99 | Won | +$716.60 | +$913.67 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,939.45 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 AM | ▼ Down | 55.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$813.67 | 45.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$227.96 | +$2,167.41 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 AM | ▼ Down | 58.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$613.67 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$128.79 | +$2,296.19 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 AM | ▼ Down | 51.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$213.67 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$2,393.23 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 AM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | −$586.33 | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | +$2,498.38 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 AM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Won | +$1,171.77 | +$585.44 | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$2,398.38 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 AM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$86.04 | +$671.48 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$2,198.38 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 AM | ▲ Up | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$82.66 | +$754.14 | 47.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$1,798.38 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$654.14 | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$745.88 | +$2,544.26 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 AM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$454.14 | 57.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$70.30 | +$2,614.56 | Kalshi |
| 11:45 AM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$358.29 | +$812.43 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$2,514.56 | Kalshi |
| 12:00 PM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$89.57 | +$902.00 | 49.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$2,314.56 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 PM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$118.68 | +$1,020.69 | 56.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$1,914.56 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$1,117.73 | 51.0¢ | $799.99 | Lost | −$799.99 | +$1,114.57 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$1,214.77 | 51.0¢ | $1,599.99 | Lost | −$1,599.99 | −$485.42 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 PM | ▲ Up | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$1,315.77 | 52.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Lost | −$3,200.00 | −$3,685.42 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 PM | ▼ Down | 60.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,215.77 | 40.0¢ | $6,400.00 | Won | +$8,955.07 | +$5,269.66 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 PM | ▼ Down | 41.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$1,015.77 | 59.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$64.76 | +$5,334.42 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 PM | ▲ Up | 58.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$269.95 | +$1,285.72 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$5,234.42 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 PM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,185.72 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$202.02 | +$5,436.44 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 PM | ▲ Up | 59.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$129.53 | +$1,315.24 | 41.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$5,336.44 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,408.46 | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$5,136.44 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 PM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$89.57 | +$1,498.03 | 49.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$4,736.44 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,398.03 | 57.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$562.49 | +$5,298.93 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 PM | ▲ Up | 45.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$227.96 | +$1,625.98 | 55.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$5,198.93 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 PM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,525.98 | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$172.10 | +$5,371.03 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 PM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$257.60 | +$1,783.58 | 58.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$5,271.03 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 PM | ▲ Up | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$109.46 | +$1,893.04 | 54.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$5,071.03 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 PM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,793.04 | 47.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$420.62 | +$5,491.64 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 PM | ▼ Down | 42.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$1,593.04 | 58.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$67.48 | +$5,559.13 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$1,193.04 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$5,652.35 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 PM | ▼ Down | 55.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | +$393.04 | 45.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$113.98 | +$5,766.32 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Lost | −$1,600.00 | −$1,206.96 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$5,859.54 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 PM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Lost | −$3,200.00 | −$4,406.96 | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | +$5,964.69 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 PM | ▲ Up | 47.0¢ | $6,400.00 | Won | +$6,729.89 | +$2,322.93 | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$5,864.69 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 PM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$2,222.93 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$202.02 | +$6,066.71 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 PM | ▼ Down | 47.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$2,022.93 | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$82.66 | +$6,149.37 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 PM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$1,622.93 | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | +$6,254.52 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 PM | ▼ Down | 42.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | +$822.93 | 58.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$67.48 | +$6,322.01 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 PM | ▼ Down | 44.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Lost | −$1,600.00 | −$777.07 | 56.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$73.23 | +$6,395.24 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Lost | −$3,200.00 | −$3,977.07 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$6,488.46 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 PM | ▲ Up | 55.0¢ | $6,400.00 | Won | +$4,881.00 | +$903.93 | 45.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$6,388.46 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 PM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$86.04 | +$989.97 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$6,188.46 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,083.19 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$5,788.46 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$983.19 | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Won | +$745.88 | +$6,534.34 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 PM | ▼ Down | 51.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$783.19 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$6,631.38 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 PM | ▼ Down | 54.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$383.19 | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$109.46 | +$6,740.84 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 PM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | −$416.81 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$6,841.84 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 PM | ▼ Down | 58.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Lost | −$1,600.00 | −$2,016.81 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$128.79 | +$6,970.62 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Won | +$2,983.56 | +$966.75 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$6,870.62 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 PM | ▼ Down | 57.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$866.75 | 43.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$247.26 | +$7,117.88 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 PM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$146.46 | +$1,013.21 | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$7,017.88 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 PM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$86.04 | +$1,099.25 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$6,817.88 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$999.25 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$372.94 | +$7,190.82 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$186.46 | +$1,185.71 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$7,090.82 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 PM | ▼ Down | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$1,085.71 | 51.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$179.14 | +$7,269.95 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 PM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$257.60 | +$1,343.31 | 58.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$7,169.95 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,436.53 | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$6,969.95 | Kalshi |
| 11:45 PM | ▲ Up | 53.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$82.66 | +$1,519.19 | 47.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$6,569.95 | Kalshi |
Oldest first, so the two runs read in the order they were placed. Paid is the price that window opened at. Stake is the money that left the account, Kalshi's taker fee included, so a losing window loses exactly that and nothing more.
3 wins in a row
Stake$100.00
Running total+$1,519.19
Wonat 53.0¢incl $3.19 fee+$82.66
Balance $201,519.19 of $200,000 started withDay over
3 losses in a row
Stake$400.00
Running total+$6,569.95
Lostat 47.0¢incl $14.31 fee−$400.00
Balance $206,569.95 of $200,000 started withDay over
Each run crossed these marks during the session, so each one is listed on its own. A stop rule is a number you pick before the day starts, not one you find afterwards.
In 6 windows the side that eventually won traded under 10 cents at some point inside the window. A contract at 4 cents is the market saying this one is finished. These are the windows where it was not. 2 of the 6 printed that low with four minutes or less on the clock, and the median one had 8 minutes left.
Each card shows three real prints from that window: where the winning side opened, its cheapest print and the minute it happened, and where it closed. Nothing is drawn between them, because nothing between them is in the data. A print that lasted one minute is not a price anyone was promised.
x47.6from 2.1¢ with 7 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $106.50 below the target. Target $84,263.40, settled $84,156.90.
x29.4from 3.4¢ with 3 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $7.45 below the target. Target $86,160.18, settled $86,152.73.
x11.5from 8.7¢ with 3 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $27.27 above the target. Target $86,360.37, settled $86,387.64.
x10.8from 9.3¢ with 8 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $27.48 above the target. Target $84,333.88, settled $84,361.36.
x10.4from 9.6¢ with 9 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $35.66 below the target. Target $84,380.99, settled $84,345.33.
x10.2from 9.8¢ with 11 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $315.59 above the target. Target $84,005.77, settled $84,321.36.
In 31 of the 96 windows, the side that eventually won traded under 25 cents at some point inside the window. In 6 of them it traded under 10 cents. The median cheapest print by the winning side was 34.0 cents. The deepest was 2.1¢, in the 6:45 PM window that settled down.
This is what the price did, not what anyone could reliably catch. The cheapest print is often one minute wide, because one minute is the resolution of the candles these rows come from. A price that existed for sixty seconds is not a price you can count on filling.
96 windows · 6 extreme under 10¢ · 33 longshot 10 to 30¢
| Window close (PT) | Side that won | Cheapest printand time left | Multiple | Gain from that price | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 AM | ▼ Down | 45.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▼ Down | 55.0¢opening minute | x1.8 | +81.8% | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AMextreme | ▲ Up | 8.7¢3 min left | x11.5 | +1,049.4% | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▼ Down | 39.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +156.4% | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢11 min left | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▲ Up | 31.0¢8 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AMextreme | ▼ Down | 3.4¢3 min left | x29.4 | +2,841.2% | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 13.0¢5 min left | x7.7 | +669.2% | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▲ Up | 41.0¢9 min left | x2.4 | +143.9% | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 10.0¢2 min left | x10.0 | +900.0% | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | 35.0¢opening minute | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 15.0¢5 min left | x6.7 | +566.7% | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 18.0¢2 min left | x5.6 | +455.6% | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢13 min left | x2.1 | +108.3% | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AM | ▲ Up | 33.0¢10 min left | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 20.0¢4 min left | x5.0 | +400.0% | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AM | ▼ Down | 31.0¢13 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 20.0¢12 min left | x5.0 | +400.0% | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | 53.0¢opening minute | x1.9 | +88.7% | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | 38.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +163.2% | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AM | ▼ Down | 32.0¢4 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 15.0¢1 min left | x6.7 | +566.7% | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 23.0¢7 min left | x4.3 | +334.8% | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AM | ▼ Down | 40.0¢opening minute | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▲ Up | 53.0¢opening minute | x1.9 | +88.7% | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢opening minute | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢opening minute | x2.1 | +108.3% | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 23.0¢12 min left | x4.3 | +334.8% | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | 32.0¢13 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 24.0¢9 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | 40.0¢opening minute | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 26.0¢2 min left | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▼ Down | 44.0¢opening minute | x2.3 | +127.3% | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AM | ▼ Down | 42.0¢13 min left | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 9:15 AMextreme | ▲ Up | 9.8¢11 min left | x10.2 | +920.4% | Kalshi |
| 9:30 AM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢12 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 9:45 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 23.0¢13 min left | x4.3 | +334.8% | Kalshi |
| 10:00 AM | ▼ Down | 37.0¢opening minute | x2.7 | +170.3% | Kalshi |
| 10:15 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 19.0¢13 min left | x5.3 | +426.3% | Kalshi |
| 10:30 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 10:45 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 24.0¢8 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 11:00 AM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +96.1% | Kalshi |
| 11:15 AM | ▼ Down | 45.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 11:30 AM | ▼ Down | 30.0¢10 min left | x3.3 | +233.3% | Kalshi |
| 11:45 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 26.0¢3 min left | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 12:00 PM | ▲ Up | 40.0¢12 min left | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 12:15 PMextreme | ▲ Up | 9.3¢8 min left | x10.8 | +975.3% | Kalshi |
| 12:30 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 24.0¢9 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 12:45 PM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢opening minute | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 1:00 PM | ▲ Up | 38.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +163.2% | Kalshi |
| 1:15 PM | ▼ Down | 30.0¢13 min left | x3.3 | +233.3% | Kalshi |
| 1:30 PM | ▼ Down | 37.0¢12 min left | x2.7 | +170.3% | Kalshi |
| 1:45 PM | ▲ Up | 53.0¢7 min left | x1.9 | +88.7% | Kalshi |
| 2:00 PM | ▼ Down | 40.0¢opening minute | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 2:15 PM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢12 min left | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 2:30 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 26.0¢10 min left | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 2:45 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢13 min left | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 3:00 PM | ▼ Down | 44.0¢opening minute | x2.3 | +127.3% | Kalshi |
| 3:15 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 14.0¢9 min left | x7.1 | +614.3% | Kalshi |
| 3:30 PM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 3:45 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 11.0¢6 min left | x9.1 | +809.1% | Kalshi |
| 4:00 PM | ▲ Up | 45.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 4:15 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢10 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 4:30 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢13 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 4:45 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 16.0¢5 min left | x6.2 | +525.0% | Kalshi |
| 5:00 PM | ▼ Down | 39.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +156.4% | Kalshi |
| 5:15 PMextreme | ▼ Down | 9.6¢9 min left | x10.4 | +941.7% | Kalshi |
| 5:30 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 11.0¢final minute | x9.1 | +809.1% | Kalshi |
| 5:45 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 13.0¢4 min left | x7.7 | +669.2% | Kalshi |
| 6:00 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢13 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 6:15 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 26.0¢13 min left | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 6:30 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 25.0¢5 min left | x4.0 | +300.0% | Kalshi |
| 6:45 PMextreme | ▼ Down | 2.1¢7 min left | x47.6 | +4,661.9% | Kalshi |
| 7:00 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 27.0¢2 min left | x3.7 | +270.4% | Kalshi |
| 7:15 PM | ▼ Down | 40.0¢12 min left | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 7:30 PM | ▲ Up | 55.0¢opening minute | x1.8 | +81.8% | Kalshi |
| 7:45 PM | ▲ Up | 42.0¢13 min left | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 8:00 PM | ▲ Up | 47.0¢10 min left | x2.1 | +112.8% | Kalshi |
| 8:15 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 15.0¢11 min left | x6.7 | +566.7% | Kalshi |
| 8:30 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 26.0¢opening minute | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 8:45 PM | ▼ Down | 44.0¢opening minute | x2.3 | +127.3% | Kalshi |
| 9:00 PM | ▼ Down | 39.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +156.4% | Kalshi |
| 9:15 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 21.0¢4 min left | x4.8 | +376.2% | Kalshi |
| 9:30 PM | ▲ Up | 32.0¢11 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 9:45 PM | ▼ Down | 41.0¢opening minute | x2.4 | +143.9% | Kalshi |
| 10:00 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 12.0¢9 min left | x8.3 | +733.3% | Kalshi |
| 10:15 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 10:30 PM | ▼ Down | 38.0¢3 min left | x2.6 | +163.2% | Kalshi |
| 10:45 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 12.0¢7 min left | x8.3 | +733.3% | Kalshi |
| 11:00 PM | ▼ Down | 33.0¢13 min left | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 11:15 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 25.0¢11 min left | x4.0 | +300.0% | Kalshi |
| 11:30 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 17.0¢5 min left | x5.9 | +488.2% | Kalshi |
| 11:45 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 20.0¢4 min left | x5.0 | +400.0% | Kalshi |
Oldest first, the day from its start. The second line under each price is how much of the window was still to run when that print happened. It is stated to the minute because one minute is the resolution of these candles, so "final minute" means the print sat in the last candle and was not a price anyone could take. Scroll sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.
| Stake per window | Total staked | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| $100 | $9,600 | +$32,630 |
| $2,000 | $192,000 | +$652,653 |
| $5,000 | $480,000 | +$1,631,636 |
Needs the winner before the window opens and a fill at a one-minute low, 96 times. It is what the price did, not a strategy anyone could run.
| Limit | Filled | Won | $100 | $2,000 | $5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 103 of 192 | 7 | −$3,715 | −$74,298 | −$185,744 |
| 20¢ | 120 of 192 | 24 | −$637 | −$12,728 | −$31,819 |
| 30¢ | 137 of 192 | 41 | −$673 | −$13,435 | −$33,587 |
A resting order at that price on both sides of every window, taking whatever fills. No winner is picked, so most fills are on the side that goes on to lose. One day is a data point, not a pattern, and a candle low touching your price is still optimistic: a real order joins a queue.
Eight price structures that turn up inside windows like these, drawn once so the words used elsewhere on the site point at something you can see.
These are shapes, not forecasts. Heuristics, not odds of winning.
All 96 session windows, newest first. Times are the window close in Pacific time. Prices are the last traded YES price in cents.
| Window close (PT) | Result | To beat | Settled at | Difference | YES open | YES low | YES high | YES close | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,171.06 | $84,179.19 | +$8.13 | 53.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,265,805 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,119.17 | $84,171.06 | +$51.89 | 50.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,551,730 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 PM | ▲ Up | $83,994.31 | $84,119.17 | +$124.86 | 42.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,539,666 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,191.53 | $83,994.31 | −$197.22 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 67.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,336,192 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,173.45 | $84,191.53 | +$18.08 | 50.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,195,615 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,194.90 | $84,173.45 | −$21.45 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 62.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,605,514 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,020.67 | $84,194.90 | +$174.23 | 52.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,338,826 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 PM | ▲ Up | $83,861.37 | $84,020.67 | +$159.30 | 56.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,866,086 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 PM | ▼ Down | $83,904.29 | $83,861.37 | −$42.92 | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 59.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,421,556 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 PM | ▲ Up | $83,817.71 | $83,904.29 | +$86.58 | 50.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,891,677 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 PM | ▼ Down | $83,903.22 | $83,817.71 | −$85.51 | 58.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 79.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,431,561 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 PM | ▼ Down | $83,987.85 | $83,903.22 | −$84.63 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 61.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,778,649 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,027.60 | $83,987.85 | −$39.75 | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,050,703 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,274.90 | $84,027.60 | −$247.30 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 74.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,733,776 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,349.74 | $84,274.90 | −$74.84 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 85.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,413,320 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,321.57 | $84,349.74 | +$28.17 | 50.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,699,370 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,151.27 | $84,321.57 | +$170.30 | 52.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,446,208 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 PM | ▲ Up | $83,914.10 | $84,151.27 | +$237.17 | 55.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,858,686 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,100.70 | $83,914.10 | −$186.60 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,724,810 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,156.90 | $84,100.70 | −$56.20 | 44.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 73.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,102,769 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,263.40 | $84,156.90 | −$106.50 | 42.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 97.9¢ | 0.1¢ | 4,492,610 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,266.56 | $84,263.40 | −$3.16 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 75.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,617,953 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,310.98 | $84,266.56 | −$44.42 | 47.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 74.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,305,654 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,342.32 | $84,310.98 | −$31.34 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,554,688 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,341.96 | $84,342.32 | +$0.36 | 47.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 4,014,966 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,345.33 | $84,341.96 | −$3.37 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 89.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,707,374 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,380.99 | $84,345.33 | −$35.66 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 90.4¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,327,961 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,450.73 | $84,380.99 | −$69.74 | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 61.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,662,168 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,471.09 | $84,450.73 | −$20.36 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 84.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,621,142 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,493.95 | $84,471.09 | −$22.86 | 42.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,394,557 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,553.11 | $84,493.95 | −$59.16 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,874,284 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,490.27 | $84,553.11 | +$62.84 | 46.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,374,615 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,484.97 | $84,490.27 | +$5.30 | 42.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,176,766 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,591.12 | $84,484.97 | −$106.15 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,305,781 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,415.13 | $84,591.12 | +$175.99 | 45.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,313,668 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,481.84 | $84,415.13 | −$66.71 | 43.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,415,021 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,406.62 | $84,481.84 | +$75.22 | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,150,548 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,362.95 | $84,406.62 | +$43.67 | 50.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,544,484 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,224.07 | $84,362.95 | +$138.88 | 59.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,362,868 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,393.67 | $84,224.07 | −$169.60 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,242,980 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,284.28 | $84,393.67 | +$109.39 | 58.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,453,486 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,372.17 | $84,284.28 | −$87.89 | 41.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 63.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,724,997 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,476.40 | $84,372.17 | −$104.23 | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 70.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,495,316 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,448.59 | $84,476.40 | +$27.81 | 48.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,562,735 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,401.48 | $84,448.59 | +$47.11 | 49.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,035,179 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,361.36 | $84,401.48 | +$40.12 | 49.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,234,635 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,333.88 | $84,361.36 | +$27.48 | 44.0¢ | 9.3¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,511,665 | Kalshi |
| 12:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,208.40 | $84,333.88 | +$125.48 | 51.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,362,125 | Kalshi |
| 11:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,161.61 | $84,208.40 | +$46.79 | 51.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,967,573 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,213.56 | $84,161.61 | −$51.95 | 43.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 70.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,537,301 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,315.32 | $84,213.56 | −$101.76 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,019,174 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,226.51 | $84,315.32 | +$88.81 | 53.0¢ | 51.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,844,267 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,055.80 | $84,226.51 | +$170.71 | 52.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,242,898 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 AM | ▲ Up | $83,771.23 | $84,055.80 | +$284.57 | 56.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,637,180 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,017.64 | $83,771.23 | −$246.41 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 81.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,259,809 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 AM | ▼ Down | $84,095.35 | $84,017.64 | −$77.71 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 63.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,825,779 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 AM | ▼ Down | $84,200.60 | $84,095.35 | −$105.25 | 58.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 77.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,960,398 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,321.36 | $84,200.60 | −$120.76 | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,570,317 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 AM | ▲ Up | $84,005.77 | $84,321.36 | +$315.59 | 51.0¢ | 9.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,142,700 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AM | ▼ Down | $84,309.98 | $84,005.77 | −$304.21 | 46.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 58.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,592,446 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▼ Down | $84,523.09 | $84,309.98 | −$213.11 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,506,344 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,645.21 | $84,523.09 | −$122.12 | 47.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 74.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,954,078 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | $84,507.03 | $84,645.21 | +$138.18 | 50.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,743,960 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,332.26 | $84,507.03 | +$174.77 | 44.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,741,895 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,036.84 | $84,332.26 | +$295.42 | 50.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,349,833 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,830.29 | $84,036.84 | −$793.45 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,027,119 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AM | ▼ Down | $85,773.17 | $84,830.29 | −$942.88 | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 77.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,174,016 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▼ Down | $85,829.10 | $85,773.17 | −$55.93 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,401,508 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AM | ▲ Up | $85,532.10 | $85,829.10 | +$297.00 | 49.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,845,524 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▲ Up | $85,343.71 | $85,532.10 | +$188.39 | 54.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,718,452 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AM | ▼ Down | $85,473.00 | $85,343.71 | −$129.29 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,824,354 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AM | ▲ Up | $85,451.95 | $85,473.00 | +$21.05 | 47.0¢ | 23.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,851,570 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AM | ▼ Down | $85,457.37 | $85,451.95 | −$5.42 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 85.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,778,718 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AM | ▼ Down | $85,462.47 | $85,457.37 | −$5.10 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 68.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,990,853 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | $85,641.64 | $85,462.47 | −$179.17 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 62.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,593,623 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | $85,486.96 | $85,641.64 | +$154.68 | 56.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,159,481 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AM | ▼ Down | $85,492.25 | $85,486.96 | −$5.29 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 80.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,814,515 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | $85,739.60 | $85,492.25 | −$247.35 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,193,349 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AM | ▼ Down | $85,902.52 | $85,739.60 | −$162.92 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 69.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,563,540 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AM | ▲ Up | $85,860.26 | $85,902.52 | +$42.26 | 54.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,633,237 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AM | ▲ Up | $85,772.68 | $85,860.26 | +$87.58 | 56.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,352,830 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▼ Down | $85,833.66 | $85,772.68 | −$60.98 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,812,516 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AM | ▼ Down | $85,836.89 | $85,833.66 | −$3.23 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 82.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,712,809 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AM | ▲ Up | $85,796.47 | $85,836.89 | +$40.42 | 50.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,139,118 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | $85,883.15 | $85,796.47 | −$86.68 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 65.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,223,455 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AM | ▼ Down | $85,939.87 | $85,883.15 | −$56.72 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 90.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,596,491 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▲ Up | $85,890.34 | $85,939.87 | +$49.53 | 52.0¢ | 41.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,386,778 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | $86,093.07 | $85,890.34 | −$202.73 | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,583,827 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AM | ▼ Down | $86,152.73 | $86,093.07 | −$59.66 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 87.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,492,910 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AM | ▼ Down | $86,160.18 | $86,152.73 | −$7.45 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 96.6¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,927,927 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▲ Up | $86,132.91 | $86,160.18 | +$27.27 | 49.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,722,069 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | $86,085.81 | $86,132.91 | +$47.10 | 44.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,859,859 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▼ Down | $86,387.64 | $86,085.81 | −$301.83 | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 61.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,681,887 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AM | ▲ Up | $86,360.37 | $86,387.64 | +$27.27 | 49.0¢ | 8.7¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,926,222 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▼ Down | $86,477.69 | $86,360.37 | −$117.32 | 44.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 45.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,911,631 | Kalshi |
| 12:00 AM | ▼ Down | $86,553.08 | $86,477.69 | −$75.39 | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,712,652 | Kalshi |
All 96 windows are inside this table. Scroll it down for the rest of the day, and sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.
The same 96 windows again, this time as the fifteen one-minute candles Kalshi recorded for the YES price, newest first. The scale is 0¢ to 100¢ on every chart, so a quiet window and a runaway one do not end up looking alike. 44 of them carry a named structure.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 20.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 20.0¢ with 4 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 17.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 17.0¢ with 5 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 91.8¢ · break at minute 9, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 15.8¢
YES opened at 42.0¢, ranged 25.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 25.0¢ with 11 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 35.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 14.0¢
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 67.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 33.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 12.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 12.0¢ with 7 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 62.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 38.0¢ with 3 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 93.5¢ · break at minute 5, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 3.8¢
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 49.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 49.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 56.0¢, ranged 12.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 12.0¢ with 9 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 35.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 12.3¢
YES opened at 57.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 59.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 41.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 32.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 32.0¢ with 11 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 58.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 79.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 21.0¢ with 4 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 61.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 39.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 54.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 56.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 44.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 33.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 7.4¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 74.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 26.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 85.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 15.0¢ with 11 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 47.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 47.0¢ with 10 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 42.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 42.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 92.4¢ · break at minute 4, back through at 7 · MR 4.2¢
YES opened at 55.0¢, ranged 55.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 55.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 25.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 8.6¢
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 60.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 40.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 44.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 73.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 27.0¢ with 2 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 67.0¢ · break at minute 4, back through at 9 · MR 15.9¢
YES opened at 42.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 97.9¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 2.1¢ with 7 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 75.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 25.0¢ with 5 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 34.0¢ · break at minute 5, back through at 6 · MR 16.4¢
YES opened at 47.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 74.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 26.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 57.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 43.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 47.0¢, ranged 13.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 13.0¢ with 4 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 89.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 11.0¢ in the final minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 90.4¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 9.6¢ with 9 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 28.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 10.6¢
YES opened at 55.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 61.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 39.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 84.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 16.0¢ with 5 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 35.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 10.7¢
YES opened at 42.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 57.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 43.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 57.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 43.0¢ with 10 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 46.0¢, ranged 45.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 45.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 42.0¢, ranged 11.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 11.0¢ with 6 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 48.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 50.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 50.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 26.0¢ · break at minute 4, back through at 6 · MR 13.3¢
YES opened at 45.0¢, ranged 14.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 14.0¢ with 9 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 13.0¢ · break at minute 9, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 11.5¢
YES opened at 43.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 56.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 44.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 85.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 7.2¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 49.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 49.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 63.0¢ · break at minute 9, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 19.1¢
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 26.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 26.0¢ with 10 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 59.0¢, ranged 42.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 42.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 7.1¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 6.5¢
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 60.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 40.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 58.0¢, ranged 53.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 53.0¢ with 7 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 41.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 63.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 37.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 60.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 70.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 30.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 48.0¢, ranged 38.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 38.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 42.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 42.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 56.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 13.8¢
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 24.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 24.0¢ with 9 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 20.0¢ · break at minute 5, back through at 6 · MR 24.4¢
YES opened at 44.0¢, ranged 9.3¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 9.3¢ with 8 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 91.5¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 7.7¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 40.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 40.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 26.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 26.0¢ with 3 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 43.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 70.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 30.0¢ with 10 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 55.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 45.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 51.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 51.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 24.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 24.0¢ with 8 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 96.7¢ · break at minute 7, back at 9, held at 9 · MR 3.9¢
YES opened at 56.0¢, ranged 50.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 50.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 11.0¢ · break at minute 8, back at 9, held at 9 · MR 13.1¢
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 81.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 19.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 14.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 8.6¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 63.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 37.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 55.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 12.7¢
YES opened at 58.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 77.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 23.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 39.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 14.7¢
YES opened at 55.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 57.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 43.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 86.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 11.8¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 9.8¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 9.8¢ with 11 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 29.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 10.4¢
YES opened at 46.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 58.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 42.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 21.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 10.9¢
YES opened at 48.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 56.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 44.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 47.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 74.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 26.0¢ with 2 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 69.0¢ · break at minute 8, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 13.1¢
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 40.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 40.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 58.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 19.2¢
YES opened at 44.0¢, ranged 24.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 24.0¢ with 9 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 32.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 32.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 9.8¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 6 · MR 5.5¢
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 54.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 46.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 54.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 77.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 23.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 48.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 52.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 48.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 42.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 42.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 84.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 7.9¢
YES opened at 54.0¢, ranged 53.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 53.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 24.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 10, held at 10 · MR 10.5¢
YES opened at 48.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 60.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 40.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 47.0¢, ranged 23.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 23.0¢ with 7 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 85.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 15.0¢ with 1 minute left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 68.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 32.0¢ with 4 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 14.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 6 · MR 9.5¢
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 62.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 38.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 90.4¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 3.9¢
YES opened at 56.0¢, ranged 53.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 53.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 80.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 20.0¢ with 12 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 11.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 6.2¢
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 54.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 46.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 69.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 31.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 40.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 18.9¢
YES opened at 54.0¢, ranged 20.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 20.0¢ with 4 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 74.0¢ · break at minute 7, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 13.4¢
YES opened at 56.0¢, ranged 33.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 33.0¢ with 10 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 30.0¢ · break at minute 5, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 11.7¢
YES opened at 51.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 52.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 48.0¢ with 13 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 53.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 82.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 18.0¢ with 2 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 36.0¢ · break at minute 8, back through at 9 · MR 23.0¢
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 15.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 15.0¢ with 5 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 65.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 35.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 90.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 10.0¢ with 2 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 41.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 41.0¢ with 9 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 6.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 7, held at 7 · MR 6.2¢
YES opened at 54.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 54.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 46.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 52.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 87.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 13.0¢ with 5 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 50.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 96.6¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 3.4¢ with 3 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, then closed back through that level and kept going the other way.
Level 43.0¢ · break at minute 6, back through at 7 · MR 14.8¢
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 31.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 31.0¢ with 8 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 79.0¢ · break at minute 6, back at 8, held at 8 · MR 13.3¢
YES opened at 44.0¢, ranged 42.0¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 42.0¢ with 11 minutes left.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 19.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 6, held at 6 · MR 9.0¢
YES opened at 56.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 61.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 39.0¢ in the opening minute.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 49.0¢, ranged 8.7¢ to 99.9¢, settled at 99.9¢. Up was cheapest at 8.7¢ with 3 minutes left.
Nothing in the first twelve minutes met the test for one of the shapes on file. The candles above are what the price did.
YES opened at 44.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 45.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 55.0¢ in the opening minute.
Price closed past the window's high (or low) up to that minute, came back to that level, and closed on the far side of it again.
Level 19.0¢ · break at minute 4, back at 5, held at 5 · MR 9.9¢
YES opened at 55.0¢, ranged 0.1¢ to 55.0¢, settled at 0.1¢. Down was cheapest at 45.0¢ in the opening minute.
Structures are tested on the first twelve minutes only. The shaded last three are the contract expiring, which is settlement and not a shape, so they are drawn and not tested. These are descriptions of what the price did, not forecasts and not odds of winning.
A 15-minute contract is a short-term bet. It settles one way or the other within minutes of the window closing, and there is nothing to do with it after that. Kalshi's perpetual contracts work differently: they do not expire, so a position can be held and sold later. That is a different risk shape, not a safer one. A perpetual carries funding and leverage, and a position in one can be closed against you long before your view on the price plays out. Read what a perpetual actually is before you decide which of the two you are choosing.
Kalshi is the exchange every price and grade on this page came from.
Kalshi isn’t available in every state.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Every number here comes from Kalshi's public API: the settled Bitcoin 15-minute markets and their one-minute candlesticks. The rows were fetched on September 26, 2026 at 05:40 UTC. Kalshi can revise a settlement for seven days after it posts, so a value on this page can still change until October 3, 2026. Every row carries its Kalshi ticker so you can check it against the exchange yourself.
Prices are the last traded YES price in cents, taken from the candle price series rather than the resting bid, because a bid that nobody hit is not a price anything traded at. This series uses a deci-cent ladder, so a price below one cent is a real price and not a rounding artifact. Volume is the figure Kalshi reports for the window.
The two curves above are arithmetic on those settled results. Nobody placed these trades. Each window is
entered at the price it opened at, and the stake is the money that leaves the account: the contracts are
solved backwards from it so that their cost plus Kalshi's taker fee, ceil(0.07 * contracts * price *
(1 - price) * 100) / 100, comes to the stake exactly. A winning contract pays one dollar, so a winning
window returns the contracts it bought and a losing window costs the stake and nothing more. A real fill
would also pay the spread, which these curves do not, so
treat them as the friendly version. How the same doubling did on every other day:
martingale on Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute, day by day.
Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing on this page is financial or betting advice.
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