Kalshi · Bitcoin 15-minute · Settled

Bitcoin 15-minute results: September 25, 2026

Name: Bitcoin 15-minute Kalshi window results, September 25, 2026
Creator: PM Countdown

Kalshi settled 96 bitcoin 15-minute windows in the session that ran from 12:00 AM Pacific on September 25, 2026 through 12:00 AM Pacific on September 26. Bitcoin closed above the price to beat in 47 of those windows and below it in 49. Every window below carries its Kalshi ticker, the price it had to beat, the value it settled at, and the YES price in cents at the open, the low, the high and the close.

The day in counts

Seven numbers that describe the session before any strategy is laid over it.

Windows settled: 96midnight to midnight PT, the full 24 hours
Closed up: 47Settled above the price to beat
Closed down: 49Settled at or below it
Total volume: 249,965,510As Kalshi reports it across the session
Biggest single-window move: +$473.274:15 AM PT window: $84,713.80 to beat, settled $85,187.07
First target: $84,014.1012:00 AM PT window
Last target: $83,927.8211:45 PM PT window

Betting one side all day, $100 base, doubling after a loss

Two mechanical runs over the same 96 windows. Each one buys a single side at the price that window opened at, commits $100.00, doubles after a losing window and resets to $100.00 after a winning one. Every window has an opening price, so all 96 are played. The stake is the money that leaves the account: Kalshi's taker fee is inside it, not billed on top, so a $100.00 bet costs $100.00 and buys whatever contracts are left after the fee. A losing window loses exactly the stake.

Always up

Buys YES in every window

Started: 12:00 AM PTSeptember 25, 2026
Final: +$2,482.80
Max bankroll needed: $2,027.16largest at the 5:30 AM PT window
Max drawdown: $1,636.74largest fall from its own high, at 8:15 PM PT
Peak: +$2,717.215:00 PM PT
Worst point: −$427.165:15 AM PT
Largest single stake: $1,600.00
Longest losing run: 4 windows
Windows played: 96 of 96every window has an opening price

Always down

Buys NO in every window

Started: 12:00 AM PTSeptember 25, 2026
Final: +$3,456.99
Max bankroll needed: $3,528.05largest at the 7:30 PM PT window
Max drawdown: $3,100.00largest fall from its own high, at 7:15 PM PT
Peak: +$3,456.9911:45 PM PT
Worst point: −$708.982:30 AM PT
Largest single stake: $3,199.99
Longest losing run: 5 windows
Windows played: 96 of 96every window has an opening price

Always down finished the day ahead, +$3,456.99 against +$2,482.80 for the always up run. That is the whole of what the day says.

Doubling after a loss only survives a short losing run. The always-down run lost 5 windows in a row, and the next window in that run needed $3,199.99 on a $100.00 base. A run of 10 would have needed $102,400.00 on one window to chase the same $100.00. Both sides finished positive on this particular day because September 25 never produced a long one-sided run, not because doubling works. A day that does produce one takes the stake past what most people have, and past Kalshi's book, before the run ends. This is one day of settled windows. It is not a strategy, and it is not advice.

Both runs, side by side

Press play and the two runs walk the session together, one window at a time, from 12:00 AM Pacific. The left panel is the always-up run, the right is always-down, and both are placing their bets into the same 96 windows. Both accounts start the day with $200,000, the same number, so the two panels can be read against each other. Each shows the running total and what is actually in the account. The second one is the one that dies and recovers.

Both runs buy at the price the window opened at. That price is not a coin flip and it is not the same twice: across the 96 windows the YES open ran from 41 cents to 62, with a median of 50. Buying up at 62 cents and buying up at 38 cents are different bets, and the run takes whichever the window offered.

The assumption is the fill. The open is one print at the top of fifteen minutes. A real order placed into it can fill a little worse, and the spread and the depth of the book are not in these figures at all. So here is the size of that: move every single fill 1 cent against the trader and always up finishes +$1,986.28 instead of +$2,482.80, while always down finishes +$2,933.53 instead of +$3,456.99. One cent costs the down run $523.46, which is 15 percent of what it made. Read that as the size of the guess, not as a margin of error.

Every figure was settled when the page was built. Nothing is simulated in your browser, and with scripting off the full ledger below is still the whole record.

96 of 96 windows · started 12:00 AM PT with $200,000 each

11:45 PM PT close · $83,927.82 to beat · settled $83,906.92 · opened 49.0¢ on YES · ▼ Down

Always up

Max bankroll needed: $2,027.16at 5:30 AM PT
Max drawdown: $1,636.74at 8:15 PM PT
Longest losing run: 4windows

Always down

Max bankroll needed: $3,528.05at 7:30 PM PT
Max drawdown: $3,100.00at 7:15 PM PT
Longest losing run: 5windows

Window

Always upAlways downBreak evenBitcoin, $83,469 to $85,187

Running total, window by window, midnight to midnight, the full 24 hours. The two runs share one scale, so the dip on one is the same size as the dip on the other. Bitcoin is in the band underneath, on its own scale, because a price near $85,187 and a profit of a few hundred dollars are not the same kind of number and putting them on one axis would make the smaller one look like whatever the drawing needed. The two share the clock and nothing else. Move your pointer across to read any window; the grid is half-hourly. The table below carries every figure.

Window close (PT)	Settled	Always up					Always down					Kalshi
Window close (PT)	Settled	Paid	Stake, all in	Result	P&L	Total	Paid	Stake, all in	Result	P&L	Total	Kalshi
12:00 AM	▲ Up	55.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$76.25	+$76.25	45.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$100.00	Kalshi
12:15 AM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$23.75	50.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$186.46	+$86.46	Kalshi
12:30 AM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$178.28	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$13.54	Kalshi
12:45 AM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$78.28	50.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$186.46	+$172.92	Kalshi
1:00 AM	▲ Up	54.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$158.81	+$237.09	46.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$72.92	Kalshi
1:15 AM	▲ Up	41.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$134.22	+$371.31	59.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$127.08	Kalshi
1:30 AM	▲ Up	44.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$118.68	+$489.99	56.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$527.08	Kalshi
1:45 AM	▼ Down	41.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$389.99	59.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$518.10	−$8.98	Kalshi
2:00 AM	▲ Up	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$600.29	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	−$108.98	Kalshi
2:15 AM	▲ Up	53.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$82.66	+$682.95	47.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$308.98	Kalshi
2:30 AM	▲ Up	43.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$123.63	+$806.58	57.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	−$708.98	Kalshi
2:45 AM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$706.58	52.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$688.44	−$20.54	Kalshi
3:00 AM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$506.58	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$72.68	Kalshi
3:15 AM	▼ Down	45.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$106.58	55.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$76.25	+$148.94	Kalshi
3:30 AM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$808.12	+$914.70	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$48.94	Kalshi
3:45 AM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$86.04	+$1,000.74	48.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	−$151.06	Kalshi
4:00 AM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$900.74	48.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$404.06	+$253.00	Kalshi
4:15 AM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$172.10	+$1,072.84	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$153.00	Kalshi
4:30 AM	▼ Down	62.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$972.84	38.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$304.42	+$457.42	Kalshi
4:45 AM	▼ Down	51.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$772.84	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	+$554.46	Kalshi
5:00 AM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$372.84	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$644.03	Kalshi
5:15 AM	▼ Down	44.0¢	$800.00	Lost	−$800.00	−$427.16	56.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$73.23	+$717.26	Kalshi
5:30 AM	▲ Up	55.0¢	$1,600.00	Won	+$1,220.24	+$793.07	45.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$617.26	Kalshi
5:45 AM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$86.04	+$879.11	48.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$417.26	Kalshi
6:00 AM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$101.00	+$980.11	52.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$17.26	Kalshi
6:15 AM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$880.11	52.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$688.44	+$705.71	Kalshi
6:30 AM	▼ Down	55.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$680.11	45.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$113.98	+$819.68	Kalshi
6:45 AM	▼ Down	41.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$280.11	59.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$64.76	+$884.45	Kalshi
7:00 AM	▲ Up	59.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$518.10	+$798.21	41.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$784.45	Kalshi
7:15 AM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$698.21	51.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$179.14	+$963.58	Kalshi
7:30 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$179.14	+$877.35	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$863.58	Kalshi
7:45 AM	▲ Up	47.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$105.15	+$982.50	53.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$663.58	Kalshi
8:00 AM	▲ Up	49.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$97.04	+$1,079.54	51.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$263.58	Kalshi
8:15 AM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$979.54	48.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$808.12	+$1,071.71	Kalshi
8:30 AM	▼ Down	56.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$779.54	44.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$118.68	+$1,190.39	Kalshi
8:45 AM	▼ Down	54.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$379.54	46.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$109.46	+$1,299.85	Kalshi
9:00 AM	▲ Up	49.0¢	$800.00	Won	+$776.37	+$1,155.91	51.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,199.85	Kalshi
9:15 AM	▲ Up	58.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$67.48	+$1,223.39	42.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$999.85	Kalshi
9:30 AM	▲ Up	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$1,293.69	43.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$599.85	Kalshi
9:45 AM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,193.69	51.0¢	$799.99	Won	+$716.60	+$1,316.45	Kalshi
10:00 AM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$993.69	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$1,386.74	Kalshi
10:15 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$1,351.98	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,286.74	Kalshi
10:30 AM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,251.98	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$1,488.76	Kalshi
10:45 AM	▲ Up	42.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$257.60	+$1,509.58	58.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,388.76	Kalshi
11:00 AM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,409.58	57.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$140.61	+$1,529.38	Kalshi
11:15 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$179.14	+$1,588.72	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,429.38	Kalshi
11:30 AM	▼ Down	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,488.72	52.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$172.10	+$1,601.47	Kalshi
11:45 AM	▲ Up	54.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$158.81	+$1,647.53	46.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,501.47	Kalshi
12:00 PM	▼ Down	54.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,547.53	46.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$218.93	+$1,720.41	Kalshi
12:15 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$179.14	+$1,726.67	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,620.41	Kalshi
12:30 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,626.67	50.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$186.46	+$1,806.87	Kalshi
12:45 PM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,426.67	48.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$101.00	+$1,907.87	Kalshi
1:00 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$404.06	+$1,830.73	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,807.87	Kalshi
1:15 PM	▼ Down	42.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,730.73	58.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$134.97	+$1,942.83	Kalshi
1:30 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$1,932.75	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,842.83	Kalshi
1:45 PM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$86.04	+$2,018.79	48.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,642.83	Kalshi
2:00 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,918.79	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$2,015.77	Kalshi
2:15 PM	▼ Down	47.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,718.79	53.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$82.66	+$2,098.44	Kalshi
2:30 PM	▲ Up	42.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$515.21	+$2,234.00	58.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$1,998.44	Kalshi
2:45 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,327.22	50.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,798.44	Kalshi
3:00 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,227.22	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$2,156.73	Kalshi
3:15 PM	▲ Up	54.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$158.81	+$2,386.04	46.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,056.73	Kalshi
3:30 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,286.04	50.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$186.46	+$2,243.19	Kalshi
3:45 PM	▲ Up	54.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$158.81	+$2,444.85	46.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,143.19	Kalshi
4:00 PM	▲ Up	55.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$76.25	+$2,521.11	45.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,943.19	Kalshi
4:15 PM	▼ Down	47.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,421.11	53.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$330.66	+$2,273.85	Kalshi
4:30 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$2,623.13	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,173.85	Kalshi
4:45 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,523.13	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$2,384.15	Kalshi
5:00 PM	▲ Up	49.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$194.08	+$2,717.21	51.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,284.15	Kalshi
5:15 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,617.21	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$2,494.45	Kalshi
5:30 PM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,417.21	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$2,564.74	Kalshi
5:45 PM	▼ Down	55.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$2,017.21	45.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$113.98	+$2,678.72	Kalshi
6:00 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$800.00	Lost	−$800.00	+$1,217.21	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,771.94	Kalshi
6:15 PM	▲ Up	60.0¢	$1,600.00	Won	+$994.03	+$2,211.24	40.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,671.94	Kalshi
6:30 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$2,300.81	49.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,471.94	Kalshi
6:45 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,394.03	50.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$2,071.94	Kalshi
7:00 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,487.25	50.0¢	$800.00	Lost	−$800.00	+$1,271.94	Kalshi
7:15 PM	▲ Up	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,580.47	50.0¢	$1,600.00	Lost	−$1,600.00	−$328.06	Kalshi
7:30 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,480.47	51.0¢	$3,199.99	Won	+$2,866.42	+$2,538.36	Kalshi
7:45 PM	▼ Down	45.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,280.47	55.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$76.25	+$2,614.62	Kalshi
8:00 PM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$400.00	Lost	−$400.00	+$1,880.47	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$2,684.92	Kalshi
8:15 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$800.00	Lost	−$800.00	+$1,080.47	50.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$93.22	+$2,778.14	Kalshi
8:30 PM	▲ Up	59.0¢	$1,600.00	Won	+$1,036.20	+$2,116.68	41.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,678.14	Kalshi
8:45 PM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,016.68	57.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$140.61	+$2,818.75	Kalshi
9:00 PM	▼ Down	43.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$1,816.68	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$2,889.05	Kalshi
9:15 PM	▲ Up	52.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$344.21	+$2,160.89	48.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,789.05	Kalshi
9:30 PM	▼ Down	52.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,060.89	48.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$202.02	+$2,991.07	Kalshi
9:45 PM	▲ Up	44.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$237.39	+$2,298.27	56.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,891.07	Kalshi
10:00 PM	▲ Up	57.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$70.30	+$2,368.57	43.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,691.07	Kalshi
10:15 PM	▼ Down	50.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,268.57	50.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$372.94	+$3,064.01	Kalshi
10:30 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,068.57	51.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$89.57	+$3,153.58	Kalshi
10:45 PM	▲ Up	51.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$358.29	+$2,426.87	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$3,053.58	Kalshi
11:00 PM	▼ Down	53.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,326.87	47.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$210.30	+$3,263.88	Kalshi
11:15 PM	▼ Down	55.0¢	$200.00	Lost	−$200.00	+$2,126.87	45.0¢	$100.00	Won	+$113.98	+$3,377.85	Kalshi
11:30 PM	▲ Up	45.0¢	$400.00	Won	+$455.93	+$2,582.80	55.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$3,277.85	Kalshi
11:45 PM	▼ Down	49.0¢	$100.00	Lost	−$100.00	+$2,482.80	51.0¢	$200.00	Won	+$179.14	+$3,456.99	Kalshi

Oldest first, so the two runs read in the order they were placed. Paid is the price that window opened at. Stake is the money that left the account, Kalshi's taker fee included, so a losing window loses exactly that and nothing more.

Window 96 of 96 · 11:45 PM PT · BTC $83,906.92 · ▼ Down

Always up

1 loss

Stake$100.00

Running total+$2,482.80

Lostat 49.0¢incl $3.45 fee−$100.00

Balance $202,482.80 of $200,000 started withDay over

Always down

1 win

Stake$200.00

Running total+$3,456.99

Wonat 51.0¢incl $6.64 fee+$179.14

Balance $203,456.99 of $200,000 started withDay over

Where you could have stopped

Each run crossed these marks during the session, so each one is listed on its own. A stop rule is a number you pick before the day starts, not one you find afterwards.

Always up buys YES in every window

+$500reached at 2:00 AM PT
+$1,000reached at 3:45 AM PT
+$2,000reached at 1:45 PM PT

Always down buys NO in every window

+$500reached at 4:45 AM PT
+$1,000reached at 8:15 AM PT
+$2,000reached at 2:00 PM PT
+$3,000reached at 10:15 PM PT

The extremes: written off, then paid

In 12 windows the side that eventually won traded under 10 cents at some point inside the window. A contract at 4 cents is the market saying this one is finished. These are the windows where it was not. 8 of the 12 printed that low with four minutes or less on the clock, and the median one had 4 minutes left.

Each card shows three real prints from that window: where the winning side opened, its cheapest print and the minute it happened, and where it closed. Nothing is drawn between them, because nothing between them is in the data. A print that lasted one minute is not a price anyone was promised.

3:00 PM▼ Down won

x500.0from 0.2¢ with 1 minute left

Bitcoin finished $19.61 below the target. Target $83,807.07, settled $83,787.46.

KXBTC15M-26SEP251800-00

7:45 PM▼ Down won

x166.7from 0.6¢ in the final minute

Bitcoin finished $4.43 below the target. Target $84,025.97, settled $84,021.54.

KXBTC15M-26SEP252245-45

5:30 AM▲ Up won

x19.2from 5.2¢ with 10 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $48.34 above the target. Target $84,329.55, settled $84,377.89.

KXBTC15M-26SEP250830-30

3:30 PM▼ Down won

x17.2from 5.8¢ with 4 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $23.28 below the target. Target $83,922.00, settled $83,898.72.

KXBTC15M-26SEP251830-30

4:00 AM▼ Down won

x14.7from 6.8¢ with 5 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $53.34 below the target. Target $84,767.14, settled $84,713.80.

KXBTC15M-26SEP250700-00

10:30 PM▼ Down won

x13.9from 7.2¢ with 3 minutes left

Bitcoin finished $39.22 below the target. Target $83,959.30, settled $83,920.08.

KXBTC15M-26SEP260130-30

The comebacks

In 29 of the 96 windows, the side that eventually won traded under 25 cents at some point inside the window. In 12 of them it traded under 10 cents. The median cheapest print by the winning side was 34.0 cents. The deepest was 0.2¢, in the 3:00 PM window that settled down.

This is what the price did, not what anyone could reliably catch. The cheapest print is often one minute wide, because one minute is the resolution of the candles these rows come from. A price that existed for sixty seconds is not a price you can count on filling.

96 windows · 12 extreme under 10¢ · 29 longshot 10 to 30¢

Window close (PT)	Side that won	Cheapest printand time left	Multiple	Gain from that price	Kalshi
12:00 AM	▲ Up	37.0¢opening minute	x2.7	+170.3%	Kalshi
12:15 AM	▼ Down	38.0¢opening minute	x2.6	+163.2%	Kalshi
12:30 AM	▲ Up	48.0¢opening minute	x2.1	+108.3%	Kalshi
12:45 AM	▼ Down	31.0¢13 min left	x3.2	+222.6%	Kalshi
1:00 AM	▲ Up	44.0¢opening minute	x2.3	+127.3%	Kalshi
1:15 AM	▲ Up	31.0¢7 min left	x3.2	+222.6%	Kalshi
1:30 AM	▲ Up	44.0¢opening minute	x2.3	+127.3%	Kalshi
1:45 AM	▼ Down	51.0¢opening minute	x2.0	+96.1%	Kalshi
2:00 AMlongshot	▲ Up	25.0¢9 min left	x4.0	+300.0%	Kalshi
2:15 AM	▲ Up	49.0¢opening minute	x2.0	+104.1%	Kalshi
2:30 AMlongshot	▲ Up	18.0¢11 min left	x5.6	+455.6%	Kalshi
2:45 AM	▼ Down	43.0¢opening minute	x2.3	+132.6%	Kalshi
3:00 AM	▼ Down	44.0¢12 min left	x2.3	+127.3%	Kalshi
3:15 AM	▼ Down	54.0¢opening minute	x1.9	+85.2%	Kalshi
3:30 AMlongshot	▲ Up	25.0¢7 min left	x4.0	+300.0%	Kalshi
3:45 AMlongshot	▲ Up	28.0¢11 min left	x3.6	+257.1%	Kalshi
4:00 AMextreme	▼ Down	6.8¢5 min left	x14.7	+1,370.6%	Kalshi
4:15 AM	▲ Up	42.0¢13 min left	x2.4	+138.1%	Kalshi
4:30 AM	▼ Down	35.0¢opening minute	x2.9	+185.7%	Kalshi
4:45 AM	▼ Down	39.0¢9 min left	x2.6	+156.4%	Kalshi
5:00 AM	▼ Down	38.0¢12 min left	x2.6	+163.2%	Kalshi
5:15 AMextreme	▼ Down	9.0¢4 min left	x11.1	+1,011.1%	Kalshi
5:30 AMextreme	▲ Up	5.2¢10 min left	x19.2	+1,823.1%	Kalshi
5:45 AM	▲ Up	42.0¢12 min left	x2.4	+138.1%	Kalshi
6:00 AMlongshot	▲ Up	29.0¢6 min left	x3.4	+244.8%	Kalshi
6:15 AMlongshot	▼ Down	25.0¢8 min left	x4.0	+300.0%	Kalshi
6:30 AMlongshot	▼ Down	21.0¢13 min left	x4.8	+376.2%	Kalshi
6:45 AMlongshot	▼ Down	18.0¢8 min left	x5.6	+455.6%	Kalshi
7:00 AMlongshot	▲ Up	15.0¢12 min left	x6.7	+566.7%	Kalshi
7:15 AM	▼ Down	35.0¢opening minute	x2.9	+185.7%	Kalshi
7:30 AM	▲ Up	36.0¢opening minute	x2.8	+177.8%	Kalshi
7:45 AM	▲ Up	47.0¢opening minute	x2.1	+112.8%	Kalshi
8:00 AM	▲ Up	30.0¢7 min left	x3.3	+233.3%	Kalshi
8:15 AM	▼ Down	31.0¢12 min left	x3.2	+222.6%	Kalshi
8:30 AM	▼ Down	42.0¢opening minute	x2.4	+138.1%	Kalshi
8:45 AMlongshot	▼ Down	24.0¢12 min left	x4.2	+316.7%	Kalshi
9:00 AMlongshot	▲ Up	20.0¢7 min left	x5.0	+400.0%	Kalshi
9:15 AM	▲ Up	55.0¢opening minute	x1.8	+81.8%	Kalshi
9:30 AM	▲ Up	31.0¢6 min left	x3.2	+222.6%	Kalshi
9:45 AM	▼ Down	35.0¢11 min left	x2.9	+185.7%	Kalshi
10:00 AM	▼ Down	55.0¢opening minute	x1.8	+81.8%	Kalshi
10:15 AM	▲ Up	51.0¢opening minute	x2.0	+96.1%	Kalshi
10:30 AM	▼ Down	38.0¢13 min left	x2.6	+163.2%	Kalshi
10:45 AM	▲ Up	30.0¢13 min left	x3.3	+233.3%	Kalshi
11:00 AM	▼ Down	50.0¢13 min left	x2.0	+100.0%	Kalshi
11:15 AM	▲ Up	50.0¢opening minute	x2.0	+100.0%	Kalshi
11:30 AMlongshot	▼ Down	12.0¢4 min left	x8.3	+733.3%	Kalshi
11:45 AMlongshot	▲ Up	20.0¢3 min left	x5.0	+400.0%	Kalshi
12:00 PMlongshot	▼ Down	24.0¢4 min left	x4.2	+316.7%	Kalshi
12:15 PMlongshot	▲ Up	27.0¢5 min left	x3.7	+270.4%	Kalshi
12:30 PM	▼ Down	48.0¢opening minute	x2.1	+108.3%	Kalshi
12:45 PMlongshot	▼ Down	12.0¢6 min left	x8.3	+733.3%	Kalshi
1:00 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢opening minute	x2.1	+108.3%	Kalshi
1:15 PM	▼ Down	45.0¢opening minute	x2.2	+122.2%	Kalshi
1:30 PM	▲ Up	48.0¢opening minute	x2.1	+108.3%	Kalshi
1:45 PM	▲ Up	35.0¢6 min left	x2.9	+185.7%	Kalshi
2:00 PM	▼ Down	46.0¢opening minute	x2.2	+117.4%	Kalshi
2:15 PM	▼ Down	33.0¢opening minute	x3.0	+203.0%	Kalshi
2:30 PMlongshot	▲ Up	22.0¢10 min left	x4.5	+354.5%	Kalshi
2:45 PMlongshot	▲ Up	26.0¢6 min left	x3.8	+284.6%	Kalshi
3:00 PMextreme	▼ Down	0.2¢1 min left	x500.0	+49,900.0%	Kalshi
3:15 PM	▲ Up	39.0¢13 min left	x2.6	+156.4%	Kalshi
3:30 PMextreme	▼ Down	5.8¢4 min left	x17.2	+1,624.1%	Kalshi
3:45 PM	▲ Up	54.0¢opening minute	x1.9	+85.2%	Kalshi
4:00 PMextreme	▲ Up	8.0¢final minute	x12.5	+1,150.0%	Kalshi
4:15 PMlongshot	▼ Down	22.0¢2 min left	x4.5	+354.5%	Kalshi
4:30 PMlongshot	▲ Up	11.0¢4 min left	x9.1	+809.1%	Kalshi
4:45 PM	▼ Down	42.0¢opening minute	x2.4	+138.1%	Kalshi
5:00 PMextreme	▲ Up	8.1¢2 min left	x12.3	+1,134.6%	Kalshi
5:15 PMlongshot	▼ Down	23.0¢6 min left	x4.3	+334.8%	Kalshi
5:30 PM	▼ Down	45.0¢13 min left	x2.2	+122.2%	Kalshi
5:45 PM	▼ Down	43.0¢opening minute	x2.3	+132.6%	Kalshi
6:00 PMlongshot	▼ Down	14.0¢7 min left	x7.1	+614.3%	Kalshi
6:15 PM	▲ Up	57.0¢opening minute	x1.8	+75.4%	Kalshi
6:30 PM	▲ Up	41.0¢6 min left	x2.4	+143.9%	Kalshi
6:45 PM	▲ Up	40.0¢opening minute	x2.5	+150.0%	Kalshi
7:00 PM	▲ Up	40.0¢10 min left	x2.5	+150.0%	Kalshi
7:15 PMextreme	▲ Up	9.4¢4 min left	x10.6	+963.8%	Kalshi
7:30 PM	▼ Down	40.0¢10 min left	x2.5	+150.0%	Kalshi
7:45 PMextreme	▼ Down	0.6¢final minute	x166.7	+16,566.7%	Kalshi
8:00 PMlongshot	▼ Down	16.0¢final minute	x6.2	+525.0%	Kalshi
8:15 PM	▼ Down	42.0¢8 min left	x2.4	+138.1%	Kalshi
8:30 PM	▲ Up	45.0¢8 min left	x2.2	+122.2%	Kalshi
8:45 PMlongshot	▼ Down	29.0¢12 min left	x3.4	+244.8%	Kalshi
9:00 PM	▼ Down	38.0¢5 min left	x2.6	+163.2%	Kalshi
9:15 PM	▲ Up	52.0¢opening minute	x1.9	+92.3%	Kalshi
9:30 PMextreme	▼ Down	7.4¢9 min left	x13.5	+1,251.4%	Kalshi
9:45 PMlongshot	▲ Up	29.0¢opening minute	x3.4	+244.8%	Kalshi
10:00 PM	▲ Up	40.0¢2 min left	x2.5	+150.0%	Kalshi
10:15 PMextreme	▼ Down	8.3¢5 min left	x12.0	+1,104.8%	Kalshi
10:30 PMextreme	▼ Down	7.2¢3 min left	x13.9	+1,288.9%	Kalshi
10:45 PMlongshot	▲ Up	22.0¢7 min left	x4.5	+354.5%	Kalshi
11:00 PMlongshot	▼ Down	27.0¢9 min left	x3.7	+270.4%	Kalshi
11:15 PMlongshot	▼ Down	25.0¢2 min left	x4.0	+300.0%	Kalshi
11:30 PM	▲ Up	35.0¢12 min left	x2.9	+185.7%	Kalshi
11:45 PMlongshot	▼ Down	28.0¢12 min left	x3.6	+257.1%	Kalshi

Oldest first, the day from its start. The second line under each price is how much of the window was still to run when that print happened. It is stated to the minute because one minute is the resolution of these candles, so "final minute" means the print sat in the last candle and was not a price anyone could take. Scroll sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.

If you had known the winner, and caught its low

Stake per window	Total staked	Profit
$100	$9,600	+$92,002
$2,000	$192,000	+$1,840,086
$5,000	$480,000	+$4,600,220

Needs the winner before the window opens and a fill at a one-minute low, 96 times. It is what the price did, not a strategy anyone could run.

The same idea you could actually place

Limit	Filled	Won	$100	$2,000	$5,000
10¢	108 of 192	12	+$488	+$9,775	+$24,439
20¢	118 of 192	22	−$1,384	−$27,668	−$69,168
30¢	139 of 192	43	−$237	−$4,725	−$11,810

A resting order at that price on both sides of every window, taking whatever fills. No winner is picked, so most fills are on the side that goes on to lose. One day is a data point, not a pattern, and a candle low touching your price is still optimistic: a real order joins a queue.

What those shapes look like

Eight price structures that turn up inside windows like these, drawn once so the words used elsewhere on the site point at something you can see.

Break, then hold
What it is
Price chops under one flat level for a while, pushes through it, then comes back down and stops right on that same level from above.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes beyond the level and the return trip holds there instead of slicing back through.
When it fails
It does not work when the return trip keeps going and closes back under the level, leaving the break as a one-candle event.
Break that did not stick
What it is
Price pushes a candle or two past the level to beat, then immediately closes back underneath and starts making lower lows.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes back on the old side of the level and the next candles stay there.
When it fails
It does not work when price reclaims the level within a few candles and carries on in the original direction.
A narrowing slide
What it is
Lower highs and lower lows, with the highs falling faster than the lows, so the whole range squeezes toward a point.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes outside the upper line of the wedge, usually with volume picking back up.
When it fails
It does not work when price leaves through the bottom of the wedge instead, or drifts sideways until the shape stops meaning anything.
Two lows, one line
What it is
Price makes a low, rallies, then comes back to almost exactly the same low, with the high between them forming a flat neckline.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes above the neckline rather than just touching it.
When it fails
It does not work when the second low prints below the first, or when price stalls under the neckline and rolls over again.
The range gets smaller
What it is
Each swing high is lower and each swing low is higher, so the candles get shorter and the whole band narrows candle by candle.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes outside the band, in either direction, with a bigger range than the ones before it.
When it fails
It does not work when the close outside is immediately given back and price settles straight back inside the band.
Quiet before the move
What it is
Candles get small and overlap each other in a narrow band while the volume bars underneath shrink for a stretch.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when volume comes back and a candle closes outside the quiet band on that bigger volume.
When it fails
It does not work when volume stays thin and price keeps drifting, or the one big candle has no follow-through behind it.
One flush, then a turn
What it is
A long run of falling candles ends in one oversized candle with a long lower wick that spikes far below everything around it.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when the next candles close back above the flush candle's own body rather than grinding along its low.
When it fails
It does not work when price sits on the flush low and then makes a new one, which turns the long wick into just another step down.
Step, pause, step
What it is
Price moves in one direction, goes quiet for a handful of candles in a tight band that leans slightly against the move, then moves again.
What confirms it
It becomes a signal when a candle closes out of the pause on the same side as the original move, with the trendline still intact.
When it fails
It does not work when the pause deepens through the trendline, which turns the step into a top rather than a rest.

These are shapes, not forecasts. Heuristics, not odds of winning.

Every settled window

All 96 session windows, newest first. Times are the window close in Pacific time. Prices are the last traded YES price in cents.

Window close (PT)	Result	To beat	Settled at	Difference	YES open	YES low	YES high	YES close	Volume	Kalshi
11:45 PM	▼ Down	$83,927.82	$83,906.92	−$20.90	49.0¢	0.1¢	72.0¢	0.1¢	2,620,788	Kalshi
11:30 PM	▲ Up	$83,895.29	$83,927.82	+$32.53	45.0¢	35.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,605,826	Kalshi
11:15 PM	▼ Down	$83,915.31	$83,895.29	−$20.02	55.0¢	0.1¢	75.0¢	0.1¢	2,660,679	Kalshi
11:00 PM	▼ Down	$83,945.29	$83,915.31	−$29.98	53.0¢	0.1¢	73.0¢	0.1¢	2,734,181	Kalshi
10:45 PM	▲ Up	$83,920.08	$83,945.29	+$25.21	51.0¢	22.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,428,622	Kalshi
10:30 PM	▼ Down	$83,959.30	$83,920.08	−$39.22	49.0¢	0.1¢	92.8¢	0.1¢	2,994,077	Kalshi
10:15 PM	▼ Down	$83,972.06	$83,959.30	−$12.76	50.0¢	0.1¢	91.7¢	0.1¢	2,733,404	Kalshi
10:00 PM	▲ Up	$83,964.68	$83,972.06	+$7.38	57.0¢	40.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,895,260	Kalshi
9:45 PM	▲ Up	$83,892.50	$83,964.68	+$72.18	44.0¢	29.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,555,978	Kalshi
9:30 PM	▼ Down	$83,980.55	$83,892.50	−$88.05	52.0¢	0.1¢	92.6¢	0.1¢	3,252,134	Kalshi
9:15 PM	▲ Up	$83,934.82	$83,980.55	+$45.73	52.0¢	52.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,144,829	Kalshi
9:00 PM	▼ Down	$83,953.14	$83,934.82	−$18.32	43.0¢	0.1¢	62.0¢	0.1¢	2,571,795	Kalshi
8:45 PM	▼ Down	$84,017.38	$83,953.14	−$64.24	43.0¢	0.1¢	71.0¢	0.1¢	2,370,964	Kalshi
8:30 PM	▲ Up	$83,920.25	$84,017.38	+$97.13	59.0¢	45.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,679,502	Kalshi
8:15 PM	▼ Down	$84,008.94	$83,920.25	−$88.69	50.0¢	0.1¢	58.0¢	0.1¢	2,861,670	Kalshi
8:00 PM	▼ Down	$84,021.54	$84,008.94	−$12.60	43.0¢	0.1¢	84.0¢	0.1¢	2,864,213	Kalshi
7:45 PM	▼ Down	$84,025.97	$84,021.54	−$4.43	45.0¢	0.1¢	99.4¢	0.1¢	3,724,709	Kalshi
7:30 PM	▼ Down	$84,097.55	$84,025.97	−$71.58	49.0¢	0.1¢	60.0¢	0.1¢	3,739,321	Kalshi
7:15 PM	▲ Up	$84,065.39	$84,097.55	+$32.16	50.0¢	9.4¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,471,691	Kalshi
7:00 PM	▲ Up	$84,034.01	$84,065.39	+$31.38	50.0¢	40.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,493,107	Kalshi
6:45 PM	▲ Up	$83,939.70	$84,034.01	+$94.31	50.0¢	40.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,789,738	Kalshi
6:30 PM	▲ Up	$83,925.95	$83,939.70	+$13.75	51.0¢	41.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,573,619	Kalshi
6:15 PM	▲ Up	$83,885.10	$83,925.95	+$40.85	60.0¢	57.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,869,640	Kalshi
6:00 PM	▼ Down	$83,889.72	$83,885.10	−$4.62	50.0¢	0.1¢	86.0¢	0.1¢	2,768,025	Kalshi
5:45 PM	▼ Down	$83,937.53	$83,889.72	−$47.81	55.0¢	0.1¢	57.0¢	0.1¢	2,836,698	Kalshi
5:30 PM	▼ Down	$84,077.82	$83,937.53	−$140.29	43.0¢	0.1¢	55.0¢	0.1¢	2,623,013	Kalshi
5:15 PM	▼ Down	$84,091.04	$84,077.82	−$13.22	53.0¢	0.1¢	77.0¢	0.1¢	3,085,080	Kalshi
5:00 PM	▲ Up	$84,066.84	$84,091.04	+$24.20	49.0¢	8.1¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,809,644	Kalshi
4:45 PM	▼ Down	$84,076.95	$84,066.84	−$10.11	53.0¢	0.1¢	58.0¢	0.1¢	2,428,933	Kalshi
4:30 PM	▲ Up	$84,062.88	$84,076.95	+$14.07	48.0¢	11.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,382,399	Kalshi
4:15 PM	▼ Down	$84,068.24	$84,062.88	−$5.36	47.0¢	0.1¢	78.0¢	0.1¢	2,814,019	Kalshi
4:00 PM	▲ Up	$84,067.39	$84,068.24	+$0.85	55.0¢	8.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,650,003	Kalshi
3:45 PM	▲ Up	$83,898.72	$84,067.39	+$168.67	54.0¢	54.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,892,809	Kalshi
3:30 PM	▼ Down	$83,922.00	$83,898.72	−$23.28	50.0¢	0.1¢	94.2¢	0.1¢	3,269,868	Kalshi
3:15 PM	▲ Up	$83,787.46	$83,922.00	+$134.54	54.0¢	39.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,815,184	Kalshi
3:00 PM	▼ Down	$83,807.07	$83,787.46	−$19.61	49.0¢	0.1¢	99.8¢	0.1¢	3,241,372	Kalshi
2:45 PM	▲ Up	$83,766.08	$83,807.07	+$40.99	50.0¢	26.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,206,222	Kalshi
2:30 PM	▲ Up	$83,705.19	$83,766.08	+$60.89	42.0¢	22.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,831,724	Kalshi
2:15 PM	▼ Down	$83,880.37	$83,705.19	−$175.18	47.0¢	0.1¢	67.0¢	0.1¢	2,839,083	Kalshi
2:00 PM	▼ Down	$84,104.45	$83,880.37	−$224.08	50.0¢	0.1¢	54.0¢	0.1¢	3,191,782	Kalshi
1:45 PM	▲ Up	$84,053.39	$84,104.45	+$51.06	52.0¢	35.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,722,188	Kalshi
1:30 PM	▲ Up	$83,963.17	$84,053.39	+$90.22	48.0¢	48.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,654,075	Kalshi
1:15 PM	▼ Down	$84,028.57	$83,963.17	−$65.40	42.0¢	0.1¢	55.0¢	0.1¢	2,505,010	Kalshi
1:00 PM	▲ Up	$83,970.57	$84,028.57	+$58.00	48.0¢	48.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,855,286	Kalshi
12:45 PM	▼ Down	$83,986.92	$83,970.57	−$16.35	52.0¢	0.1¢	88.0¢	0.1¢	3,214,130	Kalshi
12:30 PM	▼ Down	$84,031.05	$83,986.92	−$44.13	50.0¢	0.1¢	52.0¢	0.1¢	3,171,395	Kalshi
12:15 PM	▲ Up	$83,950.62	$84,031.05	+$80.43	51.0¢	27.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,092,651	Kalshi
12:00 PM	▼ Down	$83,955.99	$83,950.62	−$5.37	54.0¢	0.1¢	76.0¢	0.1¢	3,547,978	Kalshi
11:45 AM	▲ Up	$83,939.73	$83,955.99	+$16.26	54.0¢	20.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,098,323	Kalshi
11:30 AM	▼ Down	$83,986.50	$83,939.73	−$46.77	48.0¢	0.1¢	88.0¢	0.1¢	3,738,395	Kalshi
11:15 AM	▲ Up	$83,768.00	$83,986.50	+$218.50	51.0¢	50.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,271,539	Kalshi
11:00 AM	▼ Down	$83,802.22	$83,768.00	−$34.22	43.0¢	0.1¢	50.0¢	0.1¢	2,812,809	Kalshi
10:45 AM	▲ Up	$83,697.45	$83,802.22	+$104.77	42.0¢	30.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,347,555	Kalshi
10:30 AM	▼ Down	$83,936.51	$83,697.45	−$239.06	52.0¢	0.1¢	62.0¢	0.1¢	2,540,707	Kalshi
10:15 AM	▲ Up	$83,730.65	$83,936.51	+$205.86	51.0¢	51.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,648,742	Kalshi
10:00 AM	▼ Down	$83,928.15	$83,730.65	−$197.50	43.0¢	0.1¢	45.0¢	0.1¢	2,724,668	Kalshi
9:45 AM	▼ Down	$83,972.53	$83,928.15	−$44.38	49.0¢	0.1¢	65.0¢	0.1¢	3,717,093	Kalshi
9:30 AM	▲ Up	$83,967.51	$83,972.53	+$5.02	57.0¢	31.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,260,682	Kalshi
9:15 AM	▲ Up	$83,753.38	$83,967.51	+$214.13	58.0¢	55.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,125,012	Kalshi
9:00 AM	▲ Up	$83,468.66	$83,753.38	+$284.72	49.0¢	20.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,199,193	Kalshi
8:45 AM	▼ Down	$83,745.68	$83,468.66	−$277.02	54.0¢	0.1¢	76.0¢	0.1¢	3,228,316	Kalshi
8:30 AM	▼ Down	$83,959.84	$83,745.68	−$214.16	56.0¢	0.1¢	58.0¢	0.1¢	3,015,486	Kalshi
8:15 AM	▼ Down	$83,997.68	$83,959.84	−$37.84	52.0¢	0.1¢	69.0¢	0.1¢	3,669,805	Kalshi
8:00 AM	▲ Up	$83,686.24	$83,997.68	+$311.44	49.0¢	30.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,909,947	Kalshi
7:45 AM	▲ Up	$83,661.01	$83,686.24	+$25.23	47.0¢	47.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,943,243	Kalshi
7:30 AM	▲ Up	$83,547.01	$83,661.01	+$114.00	51.0¢	36.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,687,775	Kalshi
7:15 AM	▼ Down	$83,912.84	$83,547.01	−$365.83	49.0¢	0.1¢	65.0¢	0.1¢	3,038,629	Kalshi
7:00 AM	▲ Up	$83,884.91	$83,912.84	+$27.93	59.0¢	15.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	3,351,842	Kalshi
6:45 AM	▼ Down	$84,130.18	$83,884.91	−$245.27	41.0¢	0.1¢	82.0¢	0.1¢	2,524,165	Kalshi
6:30 AM	▼ Down	$84,426.42	$84,130.18	−$296.24	55.0¢	0.1¢	79.0¢	0.1¢	2,766,828	Kalshi
6:15 AM	▼ Down	$84,474.26	$84,426.42	−$47.84	48.0¢	0.1¢	75.0¢	0.1¢	2,022,216	Kalshi
6:00 AM	▲ Up	$84,431.50	$84,474.26	+$42.76	48.0¢	29.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,027,024	Kalshi
5:45 AM	▲ Up	$84,377.89	$84,431.50	+$53.61	52.0¢	42.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,251,175	Kalshi
5:30 AM	▲ Up	$84,329.55	$84,377.89	+$48.34	55.0¢	5.2¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,326,198	Kalshi
5:15 AM	▼ Down	$84,590.58	$84,329.55	−$261.03	44.0¢	0.1¢	91.0¢	0.1¢	1,833,716	Kalshi
5:00 AM	▼ Down	$84,715.57	$84,590.58	−$124.99	49.0¢	0.1¢	62.0¢	0.1¢	1,367,406	Kalshi
4:45 AM	▼ Down	$84,935.61	$84,715.57	−$220.04	51.0¢	0.1¢	61.0¢	0.1¢	1,365,601	Kalshi
4:30 AM	▼ Down	$85,187.07	$84,935.61	−$251.46	62.0¢	0.1¢	65.0¢	0.1¢	1,651,304	Kalshi
4:15 AM	▲ Up	$84,713.80	$85,187.07	+$473.27	52.0¢	42.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,399,118	Kalshi
4:00 AM	▼ Down	$84,767.14	$84,713.80	−$53.34	52.0¢	0.1¢	93.2¢	0.1¢	1,711,179	Kalshi
3:45 AM	▲ Up	$84,711.66	$84,767.14	+$55.48	52.0¢	28.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,465,805	Kalshi
3:30 AM	▲ Up	$84,484.73	$84,711.66	+$226.93	48.0¢	25.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,140,519	Kalshi
3:15 AM	▼ Down	$84,583.18	$84,484.73	−$98.45	45.0¢	0.1¢	46.0¢	0.1¢	1,101,993	Kalshi
3:00 AM	▼ Down	$84,629.23	$84,583.18	−$46.05	50.0¢	0.1¢	56.0¢	0.1¢	1,264,250	Kalshi
2:45 AM	▼ Down	$84,806.82	$84,629.23	−$177.59	48.0¢	0.1¢	57.0¢	0.1¢	1,283,572	Kalshi
2:30 AM	▲ Up	$84,603.51	$84,806.82	+$203.31	43.0¢	18.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,520,123	Kalshi
2:15 AM	▲ Up	$84,402.43	$84,603.51	+$201.08	53.0¢	49.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,240,417	Kalshi
2:00 AM	▲ Up	$84,317.79	$84,402.43	+$84.64	47.0¢	25.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,682,268	Kalshi
1:45 AM	▼ Down	$84,435.95	$84,317.79	−$118.16	41.0¢	0.1¢	49.0¢	0.1¢	1,316,798	Kalshi
1:30 AM	▲ Up	$84,119.61	$84,435.95	+$316.34	44.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,527,807	Kalshi
1:15 AM	▲ Up	$84,052.01	$84,119.61	+$67.60	41.0¢	31.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,247,192	Kalshi
1:00 AM	▲ Up	$83,893.20	$84,052.01	+$158.81	54.0¢	44.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,445,753	Kalshi
12:45 AM	▼ Down	$84,036.19	$83,893.20	−$142.99	50.0¢	0.1¢	69.0¢	0.1¢	1,839,011	Kalshi
12:30 AM	▲ Up	$83,815.07	$84,036.19	+$221.12	48.0¢	48.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	1,543,620	Kalshi
12:15 AM	▼ Down	$84,029.91	$83,815.07	−$214.84	50.0¢	0.1¢	62.0¢	0.1¢	2,360,276	Kalshi
12:00 AM	▲ Up	$84,014.10	$84,029.91	+$15.81	55.0¢	37.0¢	99.9¢	99.9¢	2,326,094	Kalshi

All 96 windows are inside this table. Scroll it down for the rest of the day, and sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.

Before you trade one of these

A 15-minute contract is a short-term bet. It settles one way or the other within minutes of the window closing, and there is nothing to do with it after that. Kalshi's perpetual contracts work differently: they do not expire, so a position can be held and sold later. That is a different risk shape, not a safer one. A perpetual carries funding and leverage, and a position in one can be closed against you long before your view on the price plays out. Read what a perpetual actually is before you decide which of the two you are choosing.

Kalshi is the exchange every price and grade on this page came from.

Open Kalshi

Kalshi isn’t available in every state.

PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

How this page was made

Every number here comes from Kalshi's public API: the settled Bitcoin 15-minute markets and their one-minute candlesticks. The rows were fetched on October 6, 2026 at 12:08 UTC. Kalshi can revise a settlement for seven days after it posts, so a value on this page can still change until October 13, 2026. Every row carries its Kalshi ticker so you can check it against the exchange yourself.

Prices are the last traded YES price in cents, taken from the candle price series rather than the resting bid, because a bid that nobody hit is not a price anything traded at. This series uses a deci-cent ladder, so a price below one cent is a real price and not a rounding artifact. Volume is the figure Kalshi reports for the window.

The two curves above are arithmetic on those settled results. Nobody placed these trades. Each window is entered at the price it opened at, and the stake is the money that leaves the account: the contracts are solved backwards from it so that their cost plus Kalshi's taker fee, ceil(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price) * 100) / 100, comes to the stake exactly. A winning contract pays one dollar, so a winning window returns the contracts it bought and a losing window costs the stake and nothing more. A real fill would also pay the spread, which these curves do not, so treat them as the friendly version. How the same doubling did on every other day: martingale on Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute, day by day.

Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing on this page is financial or betting advice.

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Bitcoin 15-minute results: September 25, 2026

The day in counts

Betting one side all day, $100 base, doubling after a loss

Always up

Always down

Both runs, side by side

Always up

Always down

Where you could have stopped

Always up buys YES in every window

Always down buys NO in every window

The extremes: written off, then paid

The comebacks

If you had known the winner, and caught its low

The same idea you could actually place

What those shapes look like

Break, then hold

Break that did not stick

A narrowing slide

Two lows, one line

The range gets smaller

Quiet before the move

One flush, then a turn

Step, pause, step

Every settled window

Before you trade one of these

How this page was made