Kalshi · Bitcoin 15-minute · Settled
Kalshi settled 96 bitcoin 15-minute windows in the session that ran from 12:00 AM Pacific on September 26, 2026 through 12:00 AM Pacific on September 27. Bitcoin closed above the price to beat in 54 of those windows and below it in 42. Every window below carries its Kalshi ticker, the price it had to beat, the value it settled at, and the YES price in cents at the open, the low, the high and the close.
Seven numbers that describe the session before any strategy is laid over it.
Two mechanical runs over the same 96 windows. Each one buys a single side at the price that window opened at, commits $100.00, doubles after a losing window and resets to $100.00 after a winning one. Every window has an opening price, so all 96 are played. The stake is the money that leaves the account: Kalshi's taker fee is inside it, not billed on top, so a $100.00 bet costs $100.00 and buys whatever contracts are left after the fee. A losing window loses exactly the stake.
Buys YES in every window
Buys NO in every window
Broke at 9:15 AM PT. The next order needed $205,120.32 and the account held $200,000. Everything after that window is money this run did not have.
Always up finished the day ahead, +$3,684.12 against −$102,720.32 for the always down run. That is the whole of what the day says.
The always down run went broke at 9:15 AM PT. It lost 10 windows in a row; the stake had doubled from $100.00 to $51,200.00 on the last window it could pay for, and the next order needed $205,120.32 against a $200,000 account. It had been chasing $100.00. The run stops there because the money stops there: −$102,720.32 is what the account lost, not a paper low it could have waited out. It played 37 windows before the stop and won 12 of them.
Doubling after a loss only survives a short losing run. The longest losing run today was 10 windows, on the always down side. A run of 10 needs $102,400.00 on one window to chase the same $100.00. This is one day of settled windows. It is not a strategy, and it is not advice.
Press play and the two runs walk the session together, one window at a time, from 12:00 AM Pacific. The left panel is the always-up run, the right is always-down, and both are placing their bets into the same 96 windows. Both accounts start the day with $200,000, the same number, so the two panels can be read against each other. Each shows the running total and what is actually in the account. The second one is the one that dies and recovers.
Both runs buy at the price the window opened at. That price is not a coin flip and it is not the same twice: across the 96 windows the YES open ran from 37 cents to 63, with a median of 50. Buying up at 62 cents and buying up at 38 cents are different bets, and the run takes whichever the window offered.
The assumption is the fill. The open is one print at the top of fifteen minutes. A real order placed into it can fill a little worse, and the spread and the depth of the book are not in these figures at all. So here is the size of that: move every single fill 1 cent against the trader and always up finishes +$3,261.20 instead of +$3,684.12, while always down finishes −$102,919.64 instead of −$102,720.32. The always down run breaks at 9:15 AM PT with the worse fill, the same window as at the open. Read that as the size of the guess, not as a margin of error.
Every figure was settled when the page was built. Nothing is simulated in your browser, and with scripting off the full ledger below is still the whole record.
37 of 37 windows · started 12:00 AM PT with $200,000 each
Nothing placed yet. Both accounts hold $200,000.
9:00 AM PT close · $84,107.22 to beat · settled $84,143.81 · opened 50.0¢ on YES · ▲ Up
Broke at 9:15 AM PT. The next order needed $205,120.32 and the account held $200,000. Everything after that window is money this run did not have.
Always upAlways downBreak evenBitcoin, $83,873 to $84,588
| Window close (PT) | Settled | Always up | Always down | Kalshi | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid | Stake, all in | Result | P&L | Total | Paid | Stake, all in | Result | P&L | Total | |||
| 12:00 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$100.00 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$93.22 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$186.46 | +$86.46 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$6.78 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$86.04 | +$172.50 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$206.78 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$89.57 | +$262.07 | 49.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$606.78 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$355.29 | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | −$1,406.78 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$255.29 | 54.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Won | +$1,270.52 | −$136.26 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AM | ▲ Up | 58.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$134.97 | +$390.25 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$236.26 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AM | ▲ Up | 55.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$76.25 | +$466.51 | 45.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$436.26 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$366.51 | 51.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$358.29 | −$77.97 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▼ Down | 50.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$166.51 | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$15.25 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$292.93 | +$459.44 | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$84.75 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$359.44 | 48.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$202.02 | +$117.27 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AM | ▼ Down | 60.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$159.44 | 40.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$139.90 | +$257.17 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AM | ▲ Up | 63.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$218.89 | +$378.32 | 37.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$157.17 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$118.68 | +$497.01 | 56.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$42.83 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$594.05 | 51.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$442.83 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$687.27 | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | −$1,242.83 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$780.49 | 50.0¢ | $1,600.00 | Lost | −$1,600.00 | −$2,842.83 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | 41.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$680.49 | 59.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Won | +$2,072.41 | −$770.42 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AM | ▲ Up | 58.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$134.97 | +$815.45 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$870.42 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | +$916.45 | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$1,070.42 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$816.45 | 52.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$344.21 | −$726.21 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$616.45 | 48.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$101.00 | −$625.21 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AM | ▼ Down | 53.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | +$216.45 | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | −$520.06 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢ | $799.99 | Won | +$716.60 | +$933.05 | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$620.06 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AM | ▼ Down | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | +$833.05 | 58.0¢ | $200.00 | Won | +$134.97 | −$485.09 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▼ Down | 41.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | +$633.05 | 59.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$64.76 | −$420.33 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AM | ▲ Up | 58.0¢ | $400.00 | Won | +$269.95 | +$903.00 | 42.0¢ | $100.00 | Lost | −$100.00 | −$520.33 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▲ Up | 56.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$73.23 | +$976.23 | 44.0¢ | $200.00 | Lost | −$200.00 | −$720.33 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,069.45 | 50.0¢ | $400.00 | Lost | −$400.00 | −$1,120.33 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,162.67 | 50.0¢ | $800.00 | Lost | −$800.00 | −$1,920.33 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$1,259.71 | 51.0¢ | $1,599.99 | Lost | −$1,599.99 | −$3,520.32 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AM | ▲ Up | 47.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$105.15 | +$1,364.86 | 53.0¢ | $3,200.00 | Lost | −$3,200.00 | −$6,720.32 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,458.08 | 50.0¢ | $6,400.00 | Lost | −$6,400.00 | −$13,120.32 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AM | ▲ Up | 45.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$113.98 | +$1,572.06 | 55.0¢ | $12,800.00 | Lost | −$12,800.00 | −$25,920.32 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$97.04 | +$1,669.10 | 51.0¢ | $25,600.00 | Lost | −$25,600.00 | −$51,520.32 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢ | $100.00 | Won | +$93.22 | +$1,762.32 | 50.0¢ | $51,200.00 | Lost | −$51,200.00 | −$102,720.32 | Kalshi |
Oldest first, so the two runs read in the order they were placed. Paid is the price that window opened at. Stake is the money that left the account, Kalshi's taker fee included, so a losing window loses exactly that and nothing more.
10 wins in a row
Stake$100.00
Running total+$1,762.32
Wonat 50.0¢incl $3.39 fee+$93.22
Balance $201,762.32 of $200,000 started withDay over
10 losses in a row
Stake$51,200.00
Running total−$102,720.32
Lostat 50.0¢incl $1,731.41 fee−$51,200.00
Balance $97,279.68 of $200,000 started withDay over
Each run crossed these marks during the session, so each one is listed on its own. A stop rule is a number you pick before the day starts, not one you find afterwards.
This run never reached the first mark.
In 7 windows the side that eventually won traded under 10 cents at some point inside the window. A contract at 4 cents is the market saying this one is finished. These are the windows where it was not. 3 of the 7 printed that low with four minutes or less on the clock, and the median one had 5 minutes left.
Each card shows three real prints from that window: where the winning side opened, its cheapest print and the minute it happened, and where it closed. Nothing is drawn between them, because nothing between them is in the data. A print that lasted one minute is not a price anyone was promised.
x166.7from 0.6¢ in the final minute
Bitcoin finished $3.14 below the target. Target $84,389.59, settled $84,386.45.
x25.0from 4.0¢ with 1 minute left
Bitcoin finished $18.77 below the target. Target $83,906.92, settled $83,888.15.
x16.7from 6.0¢ with 2 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $0.62 above the target. Target $84,166.78, settled $84,167.40.
x14.5from 6.9¢ with 5 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $39.78 above the target. Target $84,046.27, settled $84,086.05.
x14.3from 7.0¢ with 6 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $20.04 above the target. Target $84,316.43, settled $84,336.47.
x13.3from 7.5¢ with 6 minutes left
Bitcoin finished $56.50 below the target. Target $84,054.58, settled $83,998.08.
In 23 of the 96 windows, the side that eventually won traded under 25 cents at some point inside the window. In 7 of them it traded under 10 cents. The median cheapest print by the winning side was 36.5 cents. The deepest was 0.6¢, in the 9:00 PM window that settled down.
This is what the price did, not what anyone could reliably catch. The cheapest print is often one minute wide, because one minute is the resolution of the candles these rows come from. A price that existed for sixty seconds is not a price you can count on filling.
96 windows · 7 extreme under 10¢ · 18 longshot 10 to 30¢
| Window close (PT) | Side that won | Cheapest printand time left | Multiple | Gain from that price | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 AMextreme | ▼ Down | 4.0¢1 min left | x25.0 | +2,400.0% | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AM | ▲ Up | 33.0¢13 min left | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▲ Up | 45.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢13 min left | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AMextreme | ▲ Up | 6.9¢5 min left | x14.5 | +1,349.3% | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AM | ▲ Up | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▼ Down | 40.0¢11 min left | x2.5 | +150.0% | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AM | ▲ Up | 31.0¢11 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | 31.0¢8 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 24.0¢4 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AM | ▲ Up | 58.0¢opening minute | x1.7 | +72.4% | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▲ Up | 41.0¢opening minute | x2.4 | +143.9% | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 24.0¢1 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 15.0¢4 min left | x6.7 | +566.7% | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AMextreme | ▲ Up | 6.0¢2 min left | x16.7 | +1,566.7% | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | 33.0¢11 min left | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AM | ▲ Up | 48.0¢13 min left | x2.1 | +108.3% | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢11 min left | x2.3 | +127.3% | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | 38.0¢7 min left | x2.6 | +163.2% | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 17.0¢11 min left | x5.9 | +488.2% | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 24.0¢9 min left | x4.2 | +316.7% | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AM | ▲ Up | 35.0¢3 min left | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AMextreme | ▼ Down | 7.5¢6 min left | x13.3 | +1,233.3% | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▼ Down | 35.0¢9 min left | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 26.0¢8 min left | x3.8 | +284.6% | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▲ Up | 47.0¢11 min left | x2.1 | +112.8% | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AM | ▲ Up | 31.0¢final minute | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢12 min left | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AM | ▲ Up | 35.0¢opening minute | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | 35.0¢13 min left | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AM | ▲ Up | 43.0¢7 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▲ Up | 45.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 18.0¢9 min left | x5.6 | +455.6% | Kalshi |
| 9:15 AM | ▼ Down | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 9:30 AM | ▼ Down | 36.0¢10 min left | x2.8 | +177.8% | Kalshi |
| 9:45 AM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 10:00 AM | ▼ Down | 36.0¢12 min left | x2.8 | +177.8% | Kalshi |
| 10:15 AM | ▼ Down | 35.0¢13 min left | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 10:30 AM | ▼ Down | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 10:45 AMlongshot | ▲ Up | 25.0¢9 min left | x4.0 | +300.0% | Kalshi |
| 11:00 AM | ▲ Up | 48.0¢opening minute | x2.1 | +108.3% | Kalshi |
| 11:15 AMlongshot | ▼ Down | 20.0¢8 min left | x5.0 | +400.0% | Kalshi |
| 11:30 AM | ▼ Down | 54.0¢7 min left | x1.9 | +85.2% | Kalshi |
| 11:45 AM | ▼ Down | 38.0¢11 min left | x2.6 | +163.2% | Kalshi |
| 12:00 PM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 12:15 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 12:30 PM | ▲ Up | 34.0¢9 min left | x2.9 | +194.1% | Kalshi |
| 12:45 PM | ▼ Down | 45.0¢10 min left | x2.2 | +122.2% | Kalshi |
| 1:00 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 20.0¢6 min left | x5.0 | +400.0% | Kalshi |
| 1:15 PMextreme | ▼ Down | 8.6¢8 min left | x11.6 | +1,062.8% | Kalshi |
| 1:30 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 1:45 PM | ▼ Down | 35.0¢11 min left | x2.9 | +185.7% | Kalshi |
| 2:00 PM | ▲ Up | 31.0¢9 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 2:15 PM | ▲ Up | 46.0¢opening minute | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 2:30 PM | ▲ Up | 32.0¢8 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 2:45 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 12.0¢6 min left | x8.3 | +733.3% | Kalshi |
| 3:00 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢opening minute | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 3:15 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 3:30 PMextreme | ▲ Up | 7.0¢6 min left | x14.3 | +1,328.6% | Kalshi |
| 3:45 PM | ▼ Down | 52.0¢opening minute | x1.9 | +92.3% | Kalshi |
| 4:00 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 16.0¢8 min left | x6.2 | +525.0% | Kalshi |
| 4:15 PM | ▲ Up | 51.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +96.1% | Kalshi |
| 4:30 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 11.0¢final minute | x9.1 | +809.1% | Kalshi |
| 4:45 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 11.0¢5 min left | x9.1 | +809.1% | Kalshi |
| 5:00 PM | ▲ Up | 44.0¢opening minute | x2.3 | +127.3% | Kalshi |
| 5:15 PM | ▼ Down | 47.0¢opening minute | x2.1 | +112.8% | Kalshi |
| 5:30 PM | ▼ Down | 47.0¢opening minute | x2.1 | +112.8% | Kalshi |
| 5:45 PM | ▲ Up | 49.0¢opening minute | x2.0 | +104.1% | Kalshi |
| 6:00 PM | ▼ Down | 39.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +156.4% | Kalshi |
| 6:15 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 18.0¢9 min left | x5.6 | +455.6% | Kalshi |
| 6:30 PM | ▼ Down | 31.0¢13 min left | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 6:45 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 22.0¢5 min left | x4.5 | +354.5% | Kalshi |
| 7:00 PM | ▲ Up | 52.0¢opening minute | x1.9 | +92.3% | Kalshi |
| 7:15 PMlongshot | ▼ Down | 10.0¢5 min left | x10.0 | +900.0% | Kalshi |
| 7:30 PM | ▲ Up | 33.0¢10 min left | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 7:45 PM | ▼ Down | 32.0¢12 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 8:00 PM | ▼ Down | 43.0¢9 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 8:15 PM | ▲ Up | 33.0¢opening minute | x3.0 | +203.0% | Kalshi |
| 8:30 PM | ▼ Down | 47.0¢opening minute | x2.1 | +112.8% | Kalshi |
| 8:45 PM | ▲ Up | 50.0¢5 min left | x2.0 | +100.0% | Kalshi |
| 9:00 PMextreme | ▼ Down | 0.6¢final minute | x166.7 | +16,566.7% | Kalshi |
| 9:15 PM | ▲ Up | 32.0¢11 min left | x3.1 | +212.5% | Kalshi |
| 9:30 PM | ▼ Down | 42.0¢8 min left | x2.4 | +138.1% | Kalshi |
| 9:45 PM | ▼ Down | 60.0¢opening minute | x1.7 | +66.7% | Kalshi |
| 10:00 PM | ▲ Up | 43.0¢13 min left | x2.3 | +132.6% | Kalshi |
| 10:15 PM | ▲ Up | 37.0¢opening minute | x2.7 | +170.3% | Kalshi |
| 10:30 PM | ▲ Up | 46.0¢12 min left | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
| 10:45 PM | ▲ Up | 36.0¢opening minute | x2.8 | +177.8% | Kalshi |
| 11:00 PM | ▼ Down | 31.0¢opening minute | x3.2 | +222.6% | Kalshi |
| 11:15 PM | ▲ Up | 39.0¢opening minute | x2.6 | +156.4% | Kalshi |
| 11:30 PMlongshot | ▲ Up | 15.0¢12 min left | x6.7 | +566.7% | Kalshi |
| 11:45 PM | ▼ Down | 46.0¢13 min left | x2.2 | +117.4% | Kalshi |
Oldest first, the day from its start. The second line under each price is how much of the window was still to run when that print happened. It is stated to the minute because one minute is the resolution of these candles, so "final minute" means the print sat in the last candle and was not a price anyone could take. Scroll sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.
| Stake per window | Total staked | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| $100 | $9,600 | +$41,779 |
| $2,000 | $192,000 | +$835,622 |
| $5,000 | $480,000 | +$2,089,059 |
Needs the winner before the window opens and a fill at a one-minute low, 96 times. It is what the price did, not a strategy anyone could run.
| Limit | Filled | Won | $100 | $2,000 | $5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 104 of 192 | 8 | −$2,874 | −$57,483 | −$143,707 |
| 20¢ | 115 of 192 | 19 | −$2,504 | −$50,077 | −$125,190 |
| 30¢ | 121 of 192 | 25 | −$4,157 | −$83,119 | −$207,797 |
A resting order at that price on both sides of every window, taking whatever fills. No winner is picked, so most fills are on the side that goes on to lose. One day is a data point, not a pattern, and a candle low touching your price is still optimistic: a real order joins a queue.
Eight price structures that turn up inside windows like these, drawn once so the words used elsewhere on the site point at something you can see.
These are shapes, not forecasts. Heuristics, not odds of winning.
All 96 session windows, newest first. Times are the window close in Pacific time. Prices are the last traded YES price in cents.
| Window close (PT) | Result | To beat | Settled at | Difference | YES open | YES low | YES high | YES close | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,588.14 | $84,502.01 | −$86.13 | 42.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,132,143 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,579.60 | $84,588.14 | +$8.54 | 51.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,645,332 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,477.79 | $84,579.60 | +$101.81 | 42.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,978,307 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,521.33 | $84,477.79 | −$43.54 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 69.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,167,537 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,377.04 | $84,521.33 | +$144.29 | 41.0¢ | 36.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,340,588 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,365.77 | $84,377.04 | +$11.27 | 50.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,817,402 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,317.38 | $84,365.77 | +$48.39 | 51.0¢ | 37.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,091,552 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,294.83 | $84,317.38 | +$22.55 | 51.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,186,966 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,416.48 | $84,294.83 | −$121.65 | 39.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 40.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,342,662 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,469.22 | $84,416.48 | −$52.74 | 41.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 58.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,529,690 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,386.45 | $84,469.22 | +$82.77 | 41.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,724,062 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,389.59 | $84,386.45 | −$3.14 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 99.4¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,609,579 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,375.52 | $84,389.59 | +$14.07 | 59.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,561,705 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,465.61 | $84,375.52 | −$90.09 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,476,903 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,442.04 | $84,465.61 | +$23.57 | 53.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,508,387 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,464.30 | $84,442.04 | −$22.26 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,575,204 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,490.91 | $84,464.30 | −$26.61 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 68.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,533,379 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,468.35 | $84,490.91 | +$22.56 | 60.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,622,288 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,472.63 | $84,468.35 | −$4.28 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 90.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,277,480 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,385.84 | $84,472.63 | +$86.79 | 56.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,638,117 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,322.10 | $84,385.84 | +$63.74 | 49.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,716,703 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,367.61 | $84,322.10 | −$45.51 | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 69.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,456,899 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,294.42 | $84,367.61 | +$73.19 | 48.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,455,091 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,329.21 | $84,294.42 | −$34.79 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 61.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,479,723 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 PM | ▲ Up | $84,252.51 | $84,329.21 | +$76.70 | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,375,972 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 PM | ▼ Down | $84,315.40 | $84,252.51 | −$62.89 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,122,313 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,426.95 | $84,315.40 | −$111.55 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,379,596 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,343.80 | $84,426.95 | +$83.15 | 49.0¢ | 44.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,483,789 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,353.52 | $84,343.80 | −$9.72 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 89.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,727,504 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,342.09 | $84,353.52 | +$11.43 | 53.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,439,120 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,264.76 | $84,342.09 | +$77.33 | 53.0¢ | 51.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,300,985 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,275.12 | $84,264.76 | −$10.36 | 37.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 84.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,710,180 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,336.47 | $84,275.12 | −$61.35 | 47.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,611,281 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,316.43 | $84,336.47 | +$20.04 | 58.0¢ | 7.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,205,536 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,141.16 | $84,316.43 | +$175.27 | 51.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,816,446 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,150.76 | $84,141.16 | −$9.60 | 56.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 57.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,841,776 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,164.21 | $84,150.76 | −$13.45 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 88.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,336,299 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,104.65 | $84,164.21 | +$59.56 | 50.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,909,182 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 PM | ▲ Up | $84,015.80 | $84,104.65 | +$88.85 | 49.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,278,060 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 PM | ▲ Up | $83,872.97 | $84,015.80 | +$142.83 | 58.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,450,701 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,071.77 | $83,872.97 | −$198.80 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 65.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,007,381 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,001.57 | $84,071.77 | +$70.20 | 50.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,160,929 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 PM | ▼ Down | $84,005.27 | $84,001.57 | −$3.70 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 91.4¢ | 0.1¢ | 3,065,948 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 PM | ▲ Up | $84,000.98 | $84,005.27 | +$4.29 | 50.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,573,687 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 PM | ▼ Down | $84,025.56 | $84,000.98 | −$24.58 | 43.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 55.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,495,114 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 PM | ▲ Up | $84,020.08 | $84,025.56 | +$5.48 | 52.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,255,968 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 PM | ▲ Up | $83,995.43 | $84,020.08 | +$24.65 | 51.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,429,944 | Kalshi |
| 12:00 PM | ▼ Down | $84,011.01 | $83,995.43 | −$15.58 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,099,051 | Kalshi |
| 11:45 AM | ▼ Down | $84,058.51 | $84,011.01 | −$47.50 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 62.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,466,260 | Kalshi |
| 11:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,095.83 | $84,058.51 | −$37.32 | 42.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 46.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,140,835 | Kalshi |
| 11:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,124.44 | $84,095.83 | −$28.61 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 80.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,672,459 | Kalshi |
| 11:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,090.60 | $84,124.44 | +$33.84 | 55.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,182,130 | Kalshi |
| 10:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,053.37 | $84,090.60 | +$37.23 | 53.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,545,868 | Kalshi |
| 10:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,077.04 | $84,053.37 | −$23.67 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,468,466 | Kalshi |
| 10:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,103.03 | $84,077.04 | −$25.99 | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 65.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,429,373 | Kalshi |
| 10:00 AM | ▼ Down | $84,140.86 | $84,103.03 | −$37.83 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 64.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,430,417 | Kalshi |
| 9:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,104.04 | $84,140.86 | +$36.82 | 53.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,077,917 | Kalshi |
| 9:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,118.48 | $84,104.04 | −$14.44 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 64.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,449,080 | Kalshi |
| 9:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,143.81 | $84,118.48 | −$25.33 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,673,327 | Kalshi |
| 9:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,107.22 | $84,143.81 | +$36.59 | 50.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 3,024,820 | Kalshi |
| 8:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,045.99 | $84,107.22 | +$61.23 | 49.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,398,788 | Kalshi |
| 8:30 AM | ▲ Up | $84,015.87 | $84,045.99 | +$30.12 | 45.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,462,823 | Kalshi |
| 8:15 AM | ▲ Up | $84,014.24 | $84,015.87 | +$1.63 | 50.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,524,359 | Kalshi |
| 8:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,007.65 | $84,014.24 | +$6.59 | 47.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,115,565 | Kalshi |
| 7:45 AM | ▲ Up | $83,963.76 | $84,007.65 | +$43.89 | 49.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,915,352 | Kalshi |
| 7:30 AM | ▲ Up | $83,938.13 | $83,963.76 | +$25.63 | 50.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,707,057 | Kalshi |
| 7:15 AM | ▲ Up | $83,933.37 | $83,938.13 | +$4.76 | 50.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,330,109 | Kalshi |
| 7:00 AM | ▲ Up | $83,909.34 | $83,933.37 | +$24.03 | 56.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,058,798 | Kalshi |
| 6:45 AM | ▲ Up | $83,889.87 | $83,909.34 | +$19.47 | 58.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,767,680 | Kalshi |
| 6:30 AM | ▼ Down | $83,998.08 | $83,889.87 | −$108.21 | 41.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 65.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,905,967 | Kalshi |
| 6:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,054.58 | $83,998.08 | −$56.50 | 42.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 92.5¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,470,689 | Kalshi |
| 6:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,045.45 | $84,054.58 | +$9.13 | 51.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,777,533 | Kalshi |
| 5:45 AM | ▼ Down | $84,092.00 | $84,045.45 | −$46.55 | 53.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 76.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,456,516 | Kalshi |
| 5:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,127.65 | $84,092.00 | −$35.65 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 83.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,621,253 | Kalshi |
| 5:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,166.95 | $84,127.65 | −$39.30 | 48.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 62.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,733,753 | Kalshi |
| 5:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,163.19 | $84,166.95 | +$3.76 | 48.0¢ | 44.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,147,339 | Kalshi |
| 4:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,151.82 | $84,163.19 | +$11.37 | 58.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,372,144 | Kalshi |
| 4:30 AM | ▼ Down | $84,167.40 | $84,151.82 | −$15.58 | 41.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 67.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,178,477 | Kalshi |
| 4:15 AM | ▲ Up | $84,166.78 | $84,167.40 | +$0.62 | 50.0¢ | 6.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,442,187 | Kalshi |
| 4:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,139.20 | $84,166.78 | +$27.58 | 50.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,211,646 | Kalshi |
| 3:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,132.38 | $84,139.20 | +$6.82 | 49.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,167,031 | Kalshi |
| 3:30 AM | ▲ Up | $84,104.46 | $84,132.38 | +$27.92 | 44.0¢ | 41.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,199,744 | Kalshi |
| 3:15 AM | ▲ Up | $83,996.59 | $84,104.46 | +$107.87 | 63.0¢ | 58.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,348,972 | Kalshi |
| 3:00 AM | ▼ Down | $84,001.25 | $83,996.59 | −$4.66 | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 76.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,172,122 | Kalshi |
| 2:45 AM | ▼ Down | $84,009.42 | $84,001.25 | −$8.17 | 52.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 69.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,294,596 | Kalshi |
| 2:30 AM | ▲ Up | $83,995.58 | $84,009.42 | +$13.84 | 56.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,723,336 | Kalshi |
| 2:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,200.93 | $83,995.58 | −$205.35 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 60.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,237,999 | Kalshi |
| 2:00 AM | ▼ Down | $84,278.34 | $84,200.93 | −$77.41 | 49.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 51.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,224,503 | Kalshi |
| 1:45 AM | ▲ Up | $84,086.05 | $84,278.34 | +$192.29 | 55.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,681,611 | Kalshi |
| 1:30 AM | ▲ Up | $84,046.27 | $84,086.05 | +$39.78 | 58.0¢ | 6.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,747,033 | Kalshi |
| 1:15 AM | ▼ Down | $84,100.46 | $84,046.27 | −$54.19 | 46.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 54.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 1,476,290 | Kalshi |
| 1:00 AM | ▲ Up | $84,022.19 | $84,100.46 | +$78.27 | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,593,815 | Kalshi |
| 12:45 AM | ▲ Up | $83,997.61 | $84,022.19 | +$24.58 | 51.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,558,140 | Kalshi |
| 12:30 AM | ▲ Up | $83,994.30 | $83,997.61 | +$3.31 | 52.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,683,719 | Kalshi |
| 12:15 AM | ▲ Up | $83,888.15 | $83,994.30 | +$106.15 | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 2,324,554 | Kalshi |
| 12:00 AM | ▼ Down | $83,906.92 | $83,888.15 | −$18.77 | 50.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 96.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,461,548 | Kalshi |
All 96 windows are inside this table. Scroll it down for the rest of the day, and sideways on a narrow screen for the full row.
A 15-minute contract is a short-term bet. It settles one way or the other within minutes of the window closing, and there is nothing to do with it after that. Kalshi's perpetual contracts work differently: they do not expire, so a position can be held and sold later. That is a different risk shape, not a safer one. A perpetual carries funding and leverage, and a position in one can be closed against you long before your view on the price plays out. Read what a perpetual actually is before you decide which of the two you are choosing.
Kalshi is the exchange every price and grade on this page came from.
Kalshi isn’t available in every state.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Every number here comes from Kalshi's public API: the settled Bitcoin 15-minute markets and their one-minute candlesticks. The rows were fetched on September 27, 2026 at 07:10 UTC. Kalshi can revise a settlement for seven days after it posts, so a value on this page can still change until October 4, 2026. Every row carries its Kalshi ticker so you can check it against the exchange yourself.
Prices are the last traded YES price in cents, taken from the candle price series rather than the resting bid, because a bid that nobody hit is not a price anything traded at. This series uses a deci-cent ladder, so a price below one cent is a real price and not a rounding artifact. Volume is the figure Kalshi reports for the window.
The two curves above are arithmetic on those settled results. Nobody placed these trades. Each window is
entered at the price it opened at, and the stake is the money that leaves the account: the contracts are
solved backwards from it so that their cost plus Kalshi's taker fee, ceil(0.07 * contracts * price *
(1 - price) * 100) / 100, comes to the stake exactly. A winning contract pays one dollar, so a winning
window returns the contracts it bought and a losing window costs the stake and nothing more. A real fill
would also pay the spread, which these curves do not, so
treat them as the friendly version. How the same doubling did on every other day:
martingale on Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute, day by day.
Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing on this page is financial or betting advice.
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