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Desk column · UFC · UFC 332 · Saturday, Oct 3 · Salt Lake City

UFC 332 odds and picksEvery fight scored against Kalshi

All 14 fights at UFC 332, from Natália Silva and Wang Cong for the vacant flyweight title down to Court McGee’s last fight in front of a Utah crowd. For each one: Kalshi’s price, the number we think is fair, where each fighter is dangerous, and how we think it ends.

The short version

UFC 332 is priced tight: in 9 of 14 bouts our number sits within 3¢ of the Kalshi ask on both sides, so most of the card is a pass. The two buys are underdogs, Court McGee at 30¢ and Khaos Williams at 29¢, with Mick Parkin, Alexander Hernandez and Alden Coria as leans. The main event is a small Silva lean at 66¢, and we think it goes the distance more often than Bet365 does (77% vs 67%).

Fights scored

14

main card to opener

Buys

2

McGee 30¢, Williams 29¢

Priced tight

9 of 14

within 3¢ both sides

Goes the distance

77%

Silva vs Wang, our number

Main event

Silva 66¢

ours 68¢, a lean

UFC 332 odds at a glance

Kalshi’s price to buy each fighter, against the number we think is fair. When our number is at least 4¢ over the ask, it’s a buy. Anything closer is a lean or a pass, because fees and the spread eat a smaller gap.

Kalshi prices read at 3:54 AM PT on Wed, Sep 30.

  • Buyour number 4¢ or more over the ask
  • Lean1 to 3¢ over
  • Passpriced about right
  • Priceythe ask is over our number
UFC 332: Kalshi ask and our fair price for each fighter, with our call
BoutFighter AFighter BOur call
Main card 5:00 PM PT
Natália Silva vs Wang CongWomen's Flyweight (vacant title)Natália Silva66¢ours 68¢Wang Cong35¢ours 32¢LeanSilva cheap by 2¢
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton TalbottBantamweightDeiveson Figueiredo18¢ours 16¢Payton Talbott83¢ours 84¢LeanTalbott cheap by 1¢
King Green vs Esteban RibovicsLightweightKing Green34¢ours 34¢Esteban Ribovics68¢ours 66¢PassGreen at our number
Roberto Soldić vs Khaos WilliamsWelterweightRoberto Soldić72¢ours 67¢Khaos Williams29¢ours 33¢BuyWilliams cheap by 4¢
Ateba Gautier vs Roman KopylovMiddleweightAteba Gautier67¢ours 68¢Roman Kopylov35¢ours 32¢LeanGautier cheap by 1¢
Prelims 3:00 PM PT
Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden CoriaFlyweightImanol Rodriguez60¢ours 56¢Alden Coria42¢ours 44¢LeanCoria cheap by 2¢
Damian Pinas vs Andrey PulyaevMiddleweightDamian Pinas82¢ours 80¢Andrey Pulyaev19¢ours 20¢LeanPulyaev cheap by 1¢
Marcus McGhee vs Benardo SopajBantamweightMarcus McGhee57¢ours 56¢Benardo Sopaj44¢ours 44¢PassSopaj at our number
Anthony Wint vs Lucas ArmandHeavyweightAnthony Wint82¢ours 81¢Lucas Armand19¢ours 19¢PassArmand at our number
Early prelims 1:00 PM PT
Johnny Walker vs Mick ParkinHeavyweightJohnny Walker56¢ours 51¢Mick Parkin46¢ours 49¢LeanParkin cheap by 3¢
Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander HernandezLightweightRafael dos Anjos30¢ours 25¢Alexander Hernandez72¢ours 75¢LeanHernandez cheap by 3¢
Marvin Vettori vs Ismail NaurdievMiddleweightMarvin Vettori44¢ours 45¢Ismail Naurdiev57¢ours 55¢LeanVettori cheap by 1¢
Jacobe Smith vs Bruce WhiteheadWelterweightJacobe Smith89¢ours 89¢Bruce Whitehead12¢ours 11¢PassSmith at our number
Court McGee vs Eric NolanWelterweightCourt McGee30¢ours 35¢Eric Nolan71¢ours 65¢BuyMcGee cheap by 5¢

Where the value is, and the trap

UFC 332 is priced tight: in 9 of 14 bouts our number sits within 3¢ of the Kalshi ask on both sides, so most of the card is a pass. The two buys are underdogs, Court McGee at 30¢ and Khaos Williams at 29¢, with Mick Parkin, Alexander Hernandez and Alden Coria as leans. The main event is a small Silva lean at 66¢, and we think it goes the distance more often than Bet365 does (77% vs 67%).

  1. Buy

    Court McGee YES at 30¢ (fair 35¢, cheap by 5¢)

    Nolan concedes takedowns (44% defense, 17 to Hasanov) and has been choked out from the back twice; McGee choked out Means in this city and is 10-1 in Utah. The crowd prices a 0-2 UFC fighter like a 70% favorite.

    Read the fight
  2. Buy

    Khaos Williams YES at 29¢ (fair 33¢, cheap by 4¢)

    Soldić makes his UFC debut after 19.5 months without an MMA fight, signed about four weeks out, and has been stopped twice. Williams has never been stopped by strikes and carries 0.88 knockdowns per 15.

    Read the fight
  3. Lean

    Mick Parkin YES at 46¢ (fair 49¢, cheap by 3¢, lean)

    Walker's first heavyweight fight, against a 265-pounder who has never been stopped, with a chin that has failed six times and 57% takedown defense. Parkin's 18-month layoff is why this stays a lean.

    Read the fight

The trap

Eric Nolan YES at 71¢ (fair 65¢, pricey by 6¢)

The biggest gap between price and our number on the card. Nolan is 0-2 in the UFC, lands 1.68 a minute, and his weakness (44% takedown defense, two rear-naked choke losses) is exactly McGee's route. Kalshi is also 3 points higher on him than DraftKings. Runner-up: Soldić at 72¢, pricey by 5¢ in a book with 467 in volume.

Main card 5:00 PM PT · CBS and Paramount+

Main card · Women's Flyweight (vacant title) · 5 rounds · Title fight

Natália Silva vs Wang Cong

Natália Silva

#1 women's flyweight · 20-5-1 · 29

Kalshi
66¢
Ours
68¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 10% · Sub 6% · Decision 52%

Wang Cong

#8 women's flyweight · 10-1 · 34

Kalshi
35¢
Ours
32¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 6% · Sub 1% · Decision 25%

The call. Lean Silva YES at 66¢. The decision is the likeliest ending by a distance, and we like it more than Bet365 does.

Goes the distance 77% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Natália Silva#1 women's flyweight

20-5-1 · 29 years old · 65" reach

Kalshi ask66¢

Our number68¢

VerdictLeancheap by 2¢

How Silva wins, in our number

KO/TKO 10%Submission 6%Decision 52%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 7 submission, 7 decision

Where Silva is dangerous

  • Kicks from range with stance switches: her leg kicks took over round 3 against Rose Namajunas at UFC 324 (Cageside Press).
  • Spinning back kick: finished Tereza Bleda with it plus punches at 1:27 of round 3 (UFC Fight Night 215) and landed one to Namajunas's body.
  • Staying on her feet: 90% takedown defense, the best in the division per UFC.com, and only 2.36 strikes absorbed per minute.

How Silva loses. Slow starts: Namajunas's speed troubled her early at UFC 324, and Namajunas held top position for over a minute in round 2 (Cageside Press); this is also her first five-round UFC fight.

Last three W DEC (Namajunas), W DEC (Grasso), W DEC (Andrade)

Wang Cong#8 women's flyweight

10-1 · 34 years old · 65.5" reach

Kalshi ask35¢

Our number32¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 3¢

How Wang wins, in our number

KO/TKO 6%Submission 1%Decision 25%

Career wins: 2 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 6 decision

Where Wang is dangerous

  • Accurate volume: 59% significant-strike accuracy at 6.82 landed per minute; UFC.com calls her the most accurate striker in division history.
  • Calf kicks: dropped Tracy Cortez with a leg kick about 90 seconds into UFC 329 and left the leg swollen (Cageside Press).
  • Pressure boxing against the fence, with early power: a 62-second KO of Victoria Leonardo (UFC on ESPN 62).

How Wang loses. On the mat and over distance: her only loss is a technical rear-naked choke to Gabriella Fernandes, she has never fought past round 3, and she missed weight for Eduarda Moura.

Last three W DEC (Cortez), W DEC (Moura), W DEC (A. da Silva)

Goes the distance
77%
Ends early
23%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Silva -205 · Wang +170

The crowd says 65% Silva, and DraftKings at -205 de-vigs to 64.5%, so the two markets agree. We make it 68¢. Receipts: Silva's 90% takedown defense is the best in the division per UFC.com, she absorbs 2.36 strikes a minute, and she has won 14 straight. Wang is the sharper striker on paper at 59% on target and 6.82 landed per minute. But she is 34, has never fought past round 3, won two of her last four at catchweights and missed weight for Moura. Coach Eddie Barraco flagged weight-cut fatigue over five rounds on UFC.com. Salt Lake City sits about 1,300 m up. Treat that as a modest cardio tax, and it lands hardest on the fighter pushing the pace, which is Wang. Silva at 66¢ is cheap by 2¢: a lean, not a buy. Bet365's goes-the-distance at -245 de-vigs to 67%. We have 77%, because 9 of the two women's last 10 fights went to the cards.

The number that matters. 9 of the two women's last 10 fights went to decision; Silva has 5 straight UFC decisions, Wang 4 straight (UFC.com, Sherdog, Wikipedia).

Against the sportsbook props (Bet365 (via Yahoo Sports, 2026-09-29))

PropBook impliesOur number
Goes the distance -24566.9%77%
Silva DEC +11047.6%52%
Silva KO/TKO +45018.2%10%
Wang DEC +26027.8%25%
Wang KO/TKO +80011.1%6%

We make the decision 10 points likelier than Bet365's distance prop (77% vs 66.9% de-vigged). Bet365 disagrees with itself: its two decision prices add to 75.4% before vig, closer to us than its own -245. Our biggest gap to the book is on the KO props: Silva KO/TKO +450 implies 18.2% and we have 10%; Wang KO/TKO +800 implies 11.1% and we have 6%. Both look pricey to us.

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (12)
  1. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  2. Yahoo Sports, Bet365 props and method odds (2026-09-29)
  3. UFC.com athlete page, Natália Silva
  4. UFC.com athlete page, Wang Cong
  5. UFC.com coach conversation (Eddie Barraco)
  6. UFC.com title journey piece
  7. Cageside Press, UFC 324 Silva vs Namajunas
  8. Cageside Press, UFC 329 Wang vs Cortez
  9. Wikipedia, Wang Cong (weight misses, catchweights)
  10. Wehrlin & Hallen 2006, VO2max falls about 6.3% per 1,000 m (lab physiology, anecdotal in MMA) [R02 S40]
  11. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  12. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Main card · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott

Deiveson Figueiredo

#9 bantamweight · 25-7-1 · 38

Kalshi
18¢
Ours
16¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 5% · Sub 6% · Decision 5%

Payton Talbott

#11 bantamweight · 11-1 · 28

Kalshi
83¢
Ours
84¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 30% · Sub 3% · Decision 51%

The call. Lean Talbott YES at 83¢, no higher. Figueiredo's wrestling is the only road, and the 18¢ doesn't pay enough for it.

Goes the distance 56% · if it ends early, most likely in round 2

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Deiveson Figueiredo#9 bantamweight

25-7-1 · 38 years old · 68" reach

Kalshi ask18¢

Our number16¢

VerdictPasspricey by 2¢

How Figueiredo wins, in our number

KO/TKO 5%Submission 6%Decision 5%

Career wins: 9 KO/TKO, 9 submission, 7 decision

Where Figueiredo is dangerous

  • Counter right hook into top position: hurt Song Yadong with one in round 1 at UFC Macau (Sherdog).
  • Chokes: 9 career submissions, most recently a rear-naked choke of Cody Garbrandt in round 2 at UFC 300.
  • Grappling volume: 1.61 takedowns and 1.18 submission attempts per 15 minutes (UFC.com).

How Figueiredo loses. Output and entries: 2.57 strikes landed per minute, and his late takedown shot against Song got him guillotined at 4:42 of round 2.

Last three L SUB2 (Song), L DEC (Nurmagomedov), W DEC (Jackson)

Payton Talbott#11 bantamweight

11-1 · 28 years old · 70.5" reach

Kalshi ask83¢

Our number84¢

VerdictLeancheap by 1¢

How Talbott wins, in our number

KO/TKO 30%Submission 3%Decision 51%

Career wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decision

Where Talbott is dangerous

  • Fast-starting hands: a 19-second KO of Yanis Ghemmouri at UFC 303 and a TKO 21 seconds into round 2 against Cameron Saaiman.
  • Uppercuts to the body and knees in the pocket: wore down and bloodied Henry Cejudo in rounds 2 and 3 at UFC 323 (Cageside Press).
  • Volume with accuracy: 6.62 significant strikes landed per minute at 57%.

How Talbott loses. Being held down: Raoni Barcelos grounded him repeatedly and took mount and his back at UFC 311, his only loss.

Last three W DEC (Cejudo), W DEC (Lima), L DEC (Barcelos)

Goes the distance
56%
Ends early
44%
Likeliest finish
Round 2
Sportsbook
Figueiredo +455 · Talbott -625

The crowd says 82% Talbott, and DraftKings at -625 agrees at 82.7% once the vig comes out. We have 84¢. Figueiredo is 38 and 1-4 in his last five, and Rotowire counts 9, 8, 23, 6 and 53 significant strikes landed across those fights. Talbott is 10 years younger, 5 inches taller with 2.5 more inches of reach, and lands 6.62 a minute at 57%. The age gap is the part the price may not hold: a 2026 study by Miller and Nichols found MMA odds don't fully price youth, and Fightnomics found fighters aged 36 to 38 get knocked out at nearly double the rate of 22 and 23 year olds. Figueiredo's path is grappling, 1.61 takedowns and 1.18 submission attempts per 15, against a man whose only loss came on the mat. His last shot got him guillotined. Talbott at 83¢ is cheap by 1¢. A lean at most, because the 10-month layoff keeps us from pressing.

The number that matters. Figueiredo landed 9, 8, 23, 6 and 53 significant strikes in his last five fights, going 1-4 (Rotowire; Sherdog).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (10)
  1. Sherdog, Talbott a massive favorite (DraftKings/Bovada lines)
  2. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  3. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  4. Sherdog, Song taps Figueiredo at UFC Macau
  5. Cageside Press, Talbott vs Cejudo UFC 323
  6. Sherdog, Barcelos manhandles Talbott UFC 311
  7. Wikipedia, Payton Talbott
  8. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  9. Fightnomics, Age and Knockouts in MMA [R02 S43]
  10. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]

Main card · Lightweight · 3 rounds

King Green vs Esteban Ribovics

King Green

36-17-1 (1 NC) · 40

Kalshi
34¢
Ours
34¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 12% · Sub 4% · Decision 18%

Esteban Ribovics

16-3 · 30

Kalshi
68¢
Ours
66¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 26% · Sub 3% · Decision 37%

The call. Pass. The price is right on both men; enjoy the fight.

Goes the distance 55% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

King Green

36-17-1 (1 NC) · 40 years old · 71" reach

Kalshi ask34¢

Our number34¢

VerdictPassat our number

How Green wins, in our number

KO/TKO 12%Submission 4%Decision 18%

Career wins: 13 KO/TKO, 10 submission, 13 decision

Where Green is dangerous

  • Hands-low counter boxing at volume: 6.49 landed per minute at 53% (UFC.com).
  • Body attack late in rounds: body kicks, then a left hook to the body dropped Terrance McKinney with one second left in round 1 at UFC 329 (CBS Sports).
  • Finishing form: three straight stoppages in 2026 (Zellhuber TKO, Stephens submission, McKinney TKO).

How Green loses. The chin at 40: 6 of 17 losses by KO, including round 1 KOs by Mauricio Ruffy (2025) and Jalin Turner (2023).

Last three W TKO1 (McKinney), W SUB1 (Stephens), W TKO2 (Zellhuber)

Esteban Ribovics

16-3 · 30 years old · 69" reach

Kalshi ask68¢

Our number66¢

VerdictPasspricey by 2¢

How Ribovics wins, in our number

KO/TKO 26%Submission 3%Decision 37%

Career wins: 8 KO/TKO, 5 submission, 3 decision

Where Ribovics is dangerous

  • Relentless volume: 7.43 significant strikes landed per minute and three Fight of the Night awards.
  • Head kick: knocked out Terrance McKinney at 0:37 of round 1 (Sherdog).
  • Body work, then pinning to the fence with elbows and punches: the finish of Edson Barboza at UFC 330.

How Ribovics loses. Grappling and damage taken: 66% takedown defense, arm-triangled by Mateusz Gamrot in April, and 5.74 strikes absorbed per minute.

Last three W TKO2 (Barboza), L SUB2 (Gamrot), W DEC (Brener)

Goes the distance
55%
Ends early
45%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Green +200 · Ribovics -245

The crowd says 67% Ribovics, and DraftKings at -245 lands at 68%. We have 66¢, so both sides pass. Green is 40 and has been knocked out six times, including first-round losses to Mauricio Ruffy and Jalin Turner. That's the Ribovics case, plus a youth gap the market tends to underrate. But Green arrives on a four-fight streak with three straight stoppages, lands 53% of his strikes to Ribovics's 44%, and stopped both McKinney and Zellhuber this year. Ribovics beat those same two men by head kick and by split decision. Ribovics absorbs 5.74 strikes a minute and was arm-triangled by Gamrot in April, and Green averages 1.32 takedowns per 15 against 66% takedown defense. His Barboza finish came after Barboza split his shin. Flags on both: Green took this on about four weeks' notice, Ribovics is on a seven-week turnaround. Fair on Green is 34¢ and so is the ask. No trade.

The number that matters. Common opponents: Green stopped both McKinney and Zellhuber in 2026; Ribovics head-kicked McKinney and split-decisioned Zellhuber (Sherdog, CBS Sports).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (10)
  1. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. CBS Sports, Green KOs McKinney UFC 329
  4. CBS Sports, Ruffy KOs Green UFC 313
  5. Cageside Press, Ribovics finishes Barboza UFC 330
  6. MiddleEasy, bout booking
  7. Sherdog, Ribovics
  8. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  9. Fightnomics, Age and Knockouts in MMA [R02 S43]
  10. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Main card · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Roberto Soldić vs Khaos Williams

Roberto Soldić

21-4 (1 NC) · 31

Kalshi
72¢
Ours
67¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 34% · Sub 3% · Decision 30%

Khaos Williams

16-5 · 32

Kalshi
29¢
Ours
33¢
Call
Buy

Wins by KO 17% · Sub 0% · Decision 16%

The call. Buy Williams YES at 29¢; fair is 33¢. Skip Soldić at 72¢ in a thin book.

Goes the distance 46% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Roberto Soldić

21-4 (1 NC) · 31 years old · 74" reach

Kalshi ask72¢

Our number67¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 5¢

How Soldić wins, in our number

KO/TKO 34%Submission 3%Decision 30%

Career wins: 18 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision

Where Soldić is dangerous

  • Power that lasts: 18 of 21 wins by KO/TKO with 11 in round 1, and he stopped Mamed Khalidov in round 2 and Patrik Kincl in round 3 (UFC.com, Sherdog).
  • Boxing pedigree: 4-0 as a pro boxer, all by KO, including a TKO of Tomasz Adamek in 2025 (UFC.com, Yahoo).

How Soldić loses. Rust and exposure: one MMA fight since May 2023, stopped by Dricus du Plessis and Zebaztian Kadestam, and no UFC tape at all.

Last three W KO1 (Arslanaliev), L TKO2 (Kadestam), NC (Ramazanov)

Khaos Williams

16-5 · 32 years old · 77" reach

Kalshi ask29¢

Our number33¢

VerdictBuycheap by 4¢

How Williams wins, in our number

KO/TKO 17%Submission 0%Decision 16%

Career wins: 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decision

Where Williams is dangerous

  • One-punch counter: KOs of Alex Morono in 27 seconds and Abdul Razak Alhassan in 30, then Carlston Harris at 1:30 (Wikipedia, Cageside Press).
  • Knockdown rate: 0.88 per 15 minutes; dropped Nikolay Veretennikov with a right hand in May before the round 1 TKO.
  • Leg kicks: 32% of his significant strikes go to the legs (UFC.com).

How Williams loses. Wrestling and the scorecards: zero UFC takedowns, 52% takedown defense, 4 of 5 losses on the cards and a brabo choke loss to Gabriel Bonfim.

Last three W TKO1 (Veretennikov), L DEC (Gustafsson), L SUB2 (Bonfim)

Goes the distance
46%
Ends early
54%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Soldić -300 · Williams +240

The crowd says 72% Soldić, and DraftKings at -300 agrees at 71.8%. We have 67¢, which makes Williams at 29¢ cheap by 4¢: a buy. Soldić is a real puncher, 18 of 21 wins by KO/TKO and 11 in the first round. But this is his UFC debut, his first MMA fight in 19.5 months, and he signed about four weeks out. Fight Matrix found win percentage declines gradually after 180 days out. He has also been stopped twice, by Dricus du Plessis and Zebaztian Kadestam. Williams has never been stopped by strikes in 21 pro fights and carries 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes. His problems are real: 41% strike defense and zero UFC takedowns. If Soldić wrestles, Williams is in trouble, and there is no UFC tape to say he will. One more receipt: the Soldić YES side shows volume of 467 against 9,778 on Williams. Buy the side with the liquidity and the price.

The number that matters. Soldić: 1 MMA fight since May 2023, about 19.5 months out, UFC debut. Williams: 0 KO/TKO losses in 21 pro fights (Sherdog, Wikipedia).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (8)
  1. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. Sherdog, Roberto Soldić record
  4. Yahoo Sports, Soldić on his layoff
  5. Cageside Press, Williams TKOs Veretennikov
  6. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]
  7. MMA Junkie via Yahoo, UFC in 2025 stats (debutants 50-44) [R02 S56]
  8. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Main card · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov

Ateba Gautier

11-1 · 24

Kalshi
67¢
Ours
68¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 36% · Sub 0% · Decision 32%

Roman Kopylov

15-5 · 35 per Wikipedia/Rotowire; UFC.com shows 34

Kalshi
35¢
Ours
32¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 13% · Sub 1% · Decision 18%

The call. Lean Gautier YES at 67¢. Youth and length at a fair price, not a steal.

Goes the distance 50% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Ateba Gautier

11-1 · 24 years old · 81" reach

Kalshi ask67¢

Our number68¢

VerdictLeancheap by 1¢

How Gautier wins, in our number

KO/TKO 36%Submission 0%Decision 32%

Career wins: 9 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 2 decision

Where Gautier is dangerous

  • Right hand over the top: the knockout of Ozzy Diaz at 1:10 of round 2, UFC 328 (Cageside Press).
  • Early power: 4 of 5 UFC wins by KO/TKO, the first three in round 1, and 2.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes (UFC.com).
  • Length and a double jab: 81-inch reach, 6 inches more than Kopylov, used to push opponents back (Cageside Press).

How Gautier loses. Depth: one UFC fight past round 2, a decision over Pulyaev that UFC.com called competitive; Rotowire flags his combinations and distance management.

Last three W KO2 (Diaz), W DEC (Pulyaev), W KO1 (Vines)

Roman Kopylov

15-5 · 35 per Wikipedia/Rotowire; UFC.com shows 34 years old · 75" reach · southpaw

Kalshi ask35¢

Our number32¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 3¢

How Kopylov wins, in our number

KO/TKO 13%Submission 1%Decision 18%

Career wins: 12 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 3 decision

Where Kopylov is dangerous

  • Southpaw head kick: KO of Claudio Ribeiro 33 seconds into round 2 and a TKO of Chris Curtis at 4:59 of round 3.
  • Body punching: stopped Josh Fremd with a body shot at 4:44 of round 2.
  • Late finishing: all four UFC stoppage wins came in rounds 2 and 3, and he has never been stopped by strikes.

How Kopylov loses. Getting hit and giving up the back: 5.08 strikes absorbed per minute, and both submission losses were rear-naked chokes.

Last three W DEC (Tulio), L DEC (Rodrigues), L DEC (Costa)

Goes the distance
50%
Ends early
50%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Gautier -205 · Kopylov +170

The crowd says 66% Gautier, and DraftKings at -205 says 64.5%. We have 68¢, so Gautier at 67¢ is cheap by 1¢. A lean. Gautier is 24 and Kopylov 35, and youth is one of the two things the Miller and Nichols study found odds don't fully price. Gautier brings 2.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes, a 6-inch reach advantage and 94% takedown defense. That last number matters because Rotowire names grappling as Kopylov's route, and he averages 1.12 takedowns per 15. Kopylov has two real counters. He has never been stopped by strikes, and all four of his UFC stoppages came in rounds 2 and 3. Gautier has gone past round 2 once in the UFC, a decision over Pulyaev that UFC.com called competitive. Kopylov also absorbs 5.08 strikes a minute, so the knockdown numbers should travel. Small lean.

The number that matters. Gautier 2.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes vs Kopylov 5.08 strikes absorbed per minute (UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (7)
  1. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. Cageside Press, Gautier KOs Diaz UFC 328
  4. UFC.com event page (odds, book not named)
  5. UFC.com fight-by-fight preview
  6. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  7. Kirk 2023, age/stature/armspan in MMA [R02 S42]

Prelims 3:00 PM PT · Paramount+

Prelims · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria

Imanol Rodriguez

7-0 · 26

Kalshi
60¢
Ours
56¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 22% · Sub 4% · Decision 30%

Alden Coria

13-3 (1 NC) · 28

Kalshi
42¢
Ours
44¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 7% · Sub 8% · Decision 29%

The call. Lean Coria YES at 42¢. If it reaches round 3, he's the one who has been there.

Goes the distance 59% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Imanol Rodriguez

7-0 · 26 years old · 64.5" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask60¢

Our number56¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 4¢

How Rodriguez wins, in our number

KO/TKO 22%Submission 4%Decision 30%

Career wins: 6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 0 decision

Where Rodriguez is dangerous

  • Right hand power: dropped Kevin Borjas with a clean right in round 2 and finished with ground strikes (Cageside Press).
  • Pressure with leg kicks and feints, the combination that broke Borjas in round 2.
  • Wrestling to reset: took Borjas down after getting hurt in round 1 and closed the round with elbows.

How Rodriguez loses. Walking into shots: hurt badly by a Borjas counter left in round 1, and he has never been past round 2 as a pro.

Last three W TKO2 (Borjas), W TKO1 (Moreira Junior), W TKO1 (Trujillo)

Alden Coria

13-3 (1 NC) · 28 years old · 67" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask42¢

Our number44¢

VerdictLeancheap by 2¢

How Coria wins, in our number

KO/TKO 7%Submission 8%Decision 29%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 4 decision

Where Coria is dangerous

  • Volume boxing with uppercuts: walked Stewart Nicoll down behind two clean uppercuts; 4.05 landed vs 2.21 absorbed per minute.
  • Front chokes off scrambles: several front choke threats against Nicoll and 4 career submission wins, one a guillotine.
  • Late finishing: TKO of Alessandro Costa 47 seconds into round 3, on short notice.

How Coria loses. Takedowns: 56% takedown defense, and Nicoll landed three in round 1.

Last three W DEC (Nicoll), W DEC (Gurule), W TKO3 (Costa)

Goes the distance
59%
Ends early
41%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Rodriguez -162 · Coria +136

The crowd says 59% Rodriguez, and DraftKings at -162 agrees at 59.3%. We have 56¢, which makes Coria at 42¢ cheap by 2¢. Rodriguez is 7-0 with seven finishes and has never been past round 2 as a pro. Coria took all three of his UFC fights to round 3 and has never been stopped by strikes. Flyweight is a decision weight, with about 45% finishes at featherweight and below. Salt Lake City's altitude adds a modest cardio cost for the man with no third-round tape. The case against Coria is his 56% takedown defense: Stewart Nicoll took him down three times in one round, and Rodriguez's coach wants him wrestling more. Common opponent: Alberto Trujillo beat Coria on the cards, and Rodriguez stopped Trujillo in round 1. That keeps our number modest. Rodriguez is also hittable, hurt badly by Borjas in round 1 of his UFC debut. Lean Coria.

The number that matters. Rodriguez has never been past round 2 as a pro; all three of Coria's UFC fights reached round 3 (Sherdog, UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (8)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. Sherdog, Preview UFC 332 prelims
  3. Cageside Press, Rodriguez vs Borjas
  4. Cageside Press, Coria vs Nicoll
  5. Press Democrat, Rodriguez's coach
  6. UFC.com, Coria wants a bigger splash
  7. Fight Matrix, Finish Rates by Weight Class, 2026-07-31 [R02 S53]
  8. Wehrlin & Hallen 2006, VO2max falls about 6.3% per 1,000 m (lab physiology, anecdotal in MMA) [R02 S40]

Prelims · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev

Damian Pinas

10-1 · 24

Kalshi
82¢
Ours
80¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 52% · Sub 2% · Decision 26%

Andrey Pulyaev

10-5 · 29

Kalshi
19¢
Ours
20¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 6% · Sub 1% · Decision 13%

The call. Pass. Pinas is priced about right at 82¢, and 19¢ on Pulyaev is fair, not cheap enough.

Goes the distance 39% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Damian Pinas

10-1 · 24 years old · 79.5" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask82¢

Our number80¢

VerdictPasspricey by 2¢

How Pinas wins, in our number

KO/TKO 52%Submission 2%Decision 26%

Career wins: 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 0 decision

Where Pinas is dangerous

  • Jab-cross power: 9 of 10 wins by KO/TKO, 8 in round 1; he KO'd Cesar Almeida, who had never been knocked out, in round 1 at UFC 329.
  • Length: a 79.5-inch reach at middleweight, and his coach Andre Pederneiras says he has never seen anyone hit as hard.

How Pinas loses. Defense and depth: 39% strike defense, 5.89 absorbed per minute in a small sample, and never past round 2.

Last three W KO1 (Almeida), W TKO1 (Schultz), W TKO1 (V. Costa)

Andrey Pulyaev

10-5 · 29 years old · 78.5" reach · southpaw

Kalshi ask19¢

Our number20¢

VerdictLeancheap by 1¢

How Pulyaev wins, in our number

KO/TKO 6%Submission 1%Decision 13%

Career wins: 6 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision

Where Pulyaev is dangerous

  • Body kick: stopped Nick Klein with a body kick and punches in round 2, and KO'd Alexandr Kurshinskiy with one.
  • Rangy southpaw kickboxing at 6'4" with a 78.5-inch reach, disciplined at distance (Sherdog).
  • Durability: got up from two Gautier knockdowns and heard the final bell.

How Pulyaev loses. Grappling and power: submitted by Nursulton Ruziboev in round 1 after a caught kick, and dropped twice by Gautier's overhand right.

Last three L SUB1 (Ruziboev), L DEC (Gautier), W TKO2 (Klein)

Goes the distance
39%
Ends early
61%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Pinas -500 · Pulyaev +380

The crowd says 81.5% Pinas, and DraftKings at -500 says 80%. We have 80¢, so Pinas at 82¢ is pricey by 2¢ and Pulyaev at 19¢ is cheap by 1¢. Nothing to trade. Pinas is 24 with 9 KO/TKO wins in 10, eight in round 1, and his coach Andre Pederneiras says he has never seen anyone hit as hard. The worry is his defense: 39% strike defense and 5.89 absorbed per minute, over about nine minutes of UFC work. He has never seen round 3. Pulyaev is the durable type. He survived two Gautier knockdowns to hear the final bell, and his body kick stopped Nick Klein. But his losses come from power and grappling, and Pinas brings the power. Sherdog and Yahoo both pick Pinas by round 2 KO. Pulyaev's best version is lasting, not winning. Pass.

The number that matters. Pinas: 9 of 10 wins by KO/TKO, 8 in round 1, with 39% strike defense (Sherdog, UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (7)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. Sherdog, Preview UFC 332 prelims
  3. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 prelims preview
  4. Sherdog, Pederneiras on Pinas
  5. Cageside Press, Gautier beats Pulyaev
  6. Cageside Press, Ruziboev submits Pulyaev
  7. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Prelims · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj

Marcus McGhee

#15 bantamweight · 11-2 · 36

Kalshi
57¢
Ours
56¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 20% · Sub 1% · Decision 35%

Benardo Sopaj

13-3 · 26

Kalshi
44¢
Ours
44¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 12% · Sub 10% · Decision 22%

The call. Pass on the winner. If it's close after two, the late rounds belong to McGhee.

Goes the distance 57% · if it ends early, most likely in round 3

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Marcus McGhee#15 bantamweight

11-2 · 36 years old · 69" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask57¢

Our number56¢

VerdictPasspricey by 1¢

How McGhee wins, in our number

KO/TKO 20%Submission 1%Decision 35%

Career wins: 8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision

Where McGhee is dangerous

  • Kick variety to body, legs and head: a spinning wheel kick TKO of Gaston Bolanos in round 2.
  • Counter right hand: wobbled John Yannis with one in round 2 and KO'd J.P. Buys in round 1.
  • Staying up late: 90% takedown defense and regional TKOs in round 3.

How McGhee loses. Slow starts and step-ups: he feels rounds out, and Petr Yan beat him clearly on the cards.

Last three W DEC (Yannis), L DEC (Yan), W DEC (Martinez)

Benardo Sopaj

13-3 · 26 years old · 66" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask44¢

Our number44¢

VerdictPassat our number

How Sopaj wins, in our number

KO/TKO 12%Submission 10%Decision 22%

Career wins: 7 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 2 decision

Where Sopaj is dangerous

  • Left hook: dropped Timothy Cuamba with it at UFC Vegas 117 before the finish (Cageside Press).
  • Back takes from the clinch: took Cuamba's back off a cage clinch and finished with a rear-naked choke in round 2.
  • Early finishing: 7 first-round finishes and 58% striking accuracy.

How Sopaj loses. Round 3: faded badly against a hard pace per Sherdog, and was KO'd by a flying knee at 4:41 of round 3 by Vinicius Oliveira.

Last three W SUB2 (Cuamba), W DEC (Turcios), L KO3 (V. Oliveira)

Goes the distance
57%
Ends early
43%
Likeliest finish
Round 3
Sportsbook
McGhee -148 · Sopaj +124

The crowd says 56.5% McGhee, and DraftKings at -148 says 57%. We have 56¢, a pass on both sides. This is the cleanest style clash on the prelims. Sopaj is 26 and dangerous early, with seven first-round finishes, a left hook that dropped Cuamba and a back-take into the rear-naked choke. McGhee is 36 and slow to start, but he has 90% takedown defense and a record of late finishes. Sherdog says Sopaj faded badly in round 3 against a hard pace, and his one UFC loss was a flying knee at 4:41 of round 3. Altitude is a modest cardio factor, and it points the same way. Youth points the other: the market tends to underprice the younger man. Those two roughly cancel. Sherdog and Yahoo pick McGhee by third-round stoppage. Any view here is on when it ends, not who wins.

The number that matters. Sopaj's only UFC loss: flying knee KO at 4:41 of round 3; McGhee 90% takedown defense (Sherdog, UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (7)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. Sherdog, Preview UFC 332 prelims
  3. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 prelims preview
  4. Cageside Press, McGhee vs Yannis
  5. Cageside Press, Sopaj submits Cuamba
  6. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  7. Wehrlin & Hallen 2006, VO2max falls about 6.3% per 1,000 m (lab physiology, anecdotal in MMA) [R02 S40]

Prelims · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand

Anthony Wint

8-0 · 31

Kalshi
82¢
Ours
81¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 42% · Sub 17% · Decision 22%

Lucas Armand

6-0 · 30

Kalshi
19¢
Ours
19¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 11% · Sub 0% · Decision 8%

The call. Pass. Wint at 82¢ is fair; Armand at 19¢ is a debut on bad film.

Goes the distance 30% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Anthony Wint

8-0 · 31 years old · 78" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask82¢

Our number81¢

VerdictPasspricey by 1¢

How Wint wins, in our number

KO/TKO 42%Submission 17%Decision 22%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 1 decision

Where Wint is dangerous

  • Explosive early punching: three straight first-round stoppages in 21, 37 and 34 seconds before his UFC debut (Sherdog).
  • Top control into chokes: smothered Terrance Chatman and finished with an arm-triangle at 4:29 of round 1.
  • Athletic base: FIU linebacker, New York Jets 2018-19, and a 37-4 junior season in high school folkstyle (Wikipedia).

How Wint loses. Size and adversity: 5'11" and about 234 lb at heavyweight; Sherdog says he lacks defensive awareness and hasn't had to overcome much.

Last three W SUB1 (Chatman), W TKO1 (Adams), W TKO1 (Tatum)

Lucas Armand

6-0 · 30 years old

Kalshi ask19¢

Our number19¢

VerdictPassat our number

How Armand wins, in our number

KO/TKO 11%Submission 0%Decision 8%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 0 submission, 1 decision

Where Armand is dangerous

  • Size: 6'4" and about 265 lb (UFC.com) against a 5'11", 234-lb opponent.
  • Regional finishing: 5 of 6 wins by TKO, including one in round 4.

How Armand loses. Level: every pro fight in Michigan-area promotions, which Sherdog calls a particularly poor level of competition, and no tape against a wrestler.

Last three W TKO4 (Graham), W TKO1 (Smith), W TKO2 (Phillips)

Goes the distance
30%
Ends early
70%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Wint n/a · Armand n/a

The crowd says 81.5% Wint. No DraftKings line was verifiable. The UFC.com event page shows -500, about 80% once the vig comes out. We have 81¢, so it's a pass. Wint is 8-0, a former FIU linebacker and New York Jet with a folkstyle wrestling base, and he had three straight stoppages inside 40 seconds before he arm-triangled Terrance Chatman in round 1. The questions are size and schedule. He is 5'11" and about 234 lb against Armand's 6'4" and about 265, and this is his third fight in 53 days. Heavyweight is the one division where Kirk's 2023 study found armspan mattered, and Armand's reach isn't listed. Armand is 6-0 with five TKOs, all against Michigan regional opposition that Sherdog calls poor. Heavyweight fights finish 66% of the time, so expect this one to end early. No price to chase.

The number that matters. Wint's third fight in 53 days (Aug 11, Aug 22, Oct 3) and about 31 lb lighter than Armand (Sherdog, ESPN, UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (9)
  1. UFC.com event page (book not named)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. Sherdog, Preview UFC 332 prelims
  4. Wikipedia, Anthony Wint
  5. Sherdog highlight, Wint smothers Chatman
  6. ESPN athlete API (weights)
  7. Sherdog, Lucas Armand
  8. Kirk 2023, age/stature/armspan in MMA [R02 S42]
  9. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Early prelims 1:00 PM PT · Paramount+ and UFC Fight Pass

Early prelims · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin

Johnny Walker

#14 light heavyweight · 22-10 (1 NC) · 34

Kalshi
56¢
Ours
51¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 36% · Sub 3% · Decision 12%

Mick Parkin

10-1 · 31

Kalshi
46¢
Ours
49¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 18% · Sub 2% · Decision 29%

The call. Lean Parkin YES at 46¢. The heavier man who has never been stopped, against a chin that has been.

Goes the distance 41% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Johnny Walker#14 light heavyweight

22-10 (1 NC) · 34 years old · 82" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask56¢

Our number51¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 5¢

How Walker wins, in our number

KO/TKO 36%Submission 3%Decision 12%

Career wins: 17 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 2 decision

Where Walker is dangerous

  • Early power: 17 of 22 wins by KO/TKO; dropped Zhang Mingyang and out-landed him 50-20 before a round 2 stoppage (UFCStats).
  • Long, awkward striking: 82-inch reach, 3 inches more than Parkin.
  • Out-landed Dominick Reyes 42-34 even in his split-decision loss (UFCStats).

How Walker loses. The chin: 46% strike defense, stopped six times with four in the UFC, and dropped twice by Volkan Oezdemir in a round 1 KO loss.

Last three L DEC (Reyes), W TKO2 (Zhang), L KO1 (Oezdemir)

Mick Parkin

10-1 · 31 years old · 79" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask46¢

Our number49¢

VerdictLeancheap by 3¢

How Parkin wins, in our number

KO/TKO 18%Submission 2%Decision 29%

Career wins: 6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decision

Where Parkin is dangerous

  • Volume boxing over 15 minutes: 4.70 landed per minute; out-landed Jamal Pogues 95-36 (UFCStats).
  • Takedowns in the mix: 1.38 per 15, three against Caio Machado, and a BJJ brown belt.
  • Power when it lands: round 1 KO of Lukasz Brzeski at UFC 304; never stopped as a pro.

How Parkin loses. Grapplers and rust: 50% takedown defense, a decision loss to Marcin Tybura, and about 18 months out of the cage.

Last three L DEC (Tybura), W KO1 (Brzeski), W DEC (Usman)

Goes the distance
41%
Ends early
59%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Walker -135 · Parkin +114

The crowd says 55.5% Walker, and DraftKings at -135 says 55%. We have Parkin at 49¢, so Parkin at 46¢ is cheap by 3¢. A lean. Walker moves up to heavyweight after 16 UFC light heavyweight fights. Division changes have historically cost fighters a few points: Bloody Elbow's 2015 study found records went from 57% of wins before to about 52% after. His chin was the issue at 205. He has been stopped six times, four in the UFC, with 46% strike defense. Now he faces a 265-pounder who has never been stopped, lands 4.70 a minute and mixes in 1.38 takedowns per 15 against Walker's 57% takedown defense. The case for Walker: 82 inches of reach at the one weight where reach shows up in results, and 17 KO/TKO wins. The case against Parkin: 18 months out and a withdrawn March bout. That's why it's a lean and not a buy.

The number that matters. Walker stopped 6 times (4 in the UFC); Parkin never stopped in 11 pro fights (Sherdog, UFCStats).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (9)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. MMA Sucka, Walker on his 205 cuts
  4. LowKick MMA, Walker heavyweight debut
  5. Wikipedia, Mick Parkin
  6. UFC.com fight-by-fight preview
  7. Bloody Elbow, changing weight classes, 2015-08-05 [R02 S1]
  8. Kirk 2023, age/stature/armspan in MMA [R02 S42]
  9. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]

Early prelims · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez

Rafael dos Anjos

32-17 · 41

Kalshi
30¢
Ours
25¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 2% · Sub 6% · Decision 17%

Alexander Hernandez

18-9 · 34

Kalshi
72¢
Ours
75¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 24% · Sub 3% · Decision 48%

The call. Lean Hernandez YES; a fill at 71¢ or better makes it cleaner.

Goes the distance 65% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Rafael dos Anjos

32-17 · 41 years old · 70" reach · southpaw

Kalshi ask30¢

Our number25¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 5¢

How dos Anjos wins, in our number

KO/TKO 2%Submission 6%Decision 17%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 11 submission, 16 decision

Where dos Anjos is dangerous

  • Top game and submissions: 11 submission wins; 4 takedowns and 2 submission attempts on the way to finishing Bryan Barberena (UFCStats).
  • Southpaw pressure and body work, with 60% strike defense, and never submitted in 49 pro fights.

How dos Anjos loses. Age, knees and wrestling: 41, three knee surgeries since his last fight, and 54% takedown defense (Gamrot landed 11).

Last three L TKO1 knee injury (Neal), L DEC (Gamrot), L DEC (Luque)

Alexander Hernandez

18-9 · 34 years old · 72" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask72¢

Our number75¢

VerdictLeancheap by 3¢

How Hernandez wins, in our number

KO/TKO 24%Submission 3%Decision 48%

Career wins: 8 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 8 decision

Where Hernandez is dangerous

  • Power in exchanges: knockdowns in both 2025 finishes, Chase Hooper in round 1 and Diego Ferreira in round 2 (UFCStats).
  • Wrestling when he wants it: 4 takedowns against Kurt Holobaugh and 68% takedown defense.

How Hernandez loses. Pressure wrestlers: Rafa Garcia took him down four times and out-struck him 59-50 in April.

Last three L DEC (Garcia), W TKO2 (Ferreira), W KO1 (Hooper)

Goes the distance
65%
Ends early
35%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
dos Anjos +210 · Hernandez -258

The crowd says 71% Hernandez, and DraftKings at -258 says 69%. We have 75¢, so Hernandez at 72¢ is cheap by 3¢. A lean. Dos Anjos is 41, has not fought in about 23 months, and has had three knee surgeries since his last fight ended on a knee injury against Geoff Neal. He has lost three straight and, per UFC.com, has not won at lightweight since November 2020. The market already likes Hernandez, but a 34 vs 41 age gap is the kind the Miller and Nichols study says odds underprice. Dos Anjos still has a path: 1.95 takedowns per 15 and 11 submission wins, and Rafa Garcia took Hernandez down four times in April. Hernandez is hittable at 4.45 absorbed per minute, and close fights are normal for him. The Hernandez book is thin with a 2¢ spread, so work a bid rather than lifting 72¢.

The number that matters. Dos Anjos: about 23 months out, three knee surgeries, no lightweight win since November 2020 (MiddleEasy, UFC.com).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (7)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. MiddleEasy, dos Anjos knee surgeries
  4. Cageside Press, Garcia dominates Hernandez
  5. UFC.com fight-by-fight preview
  6. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  7. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]

Early prelims · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev

Marvin Vettori

19-10-1 · 33

Kalshi
44¢
Ours
45¢
Call
Lean

Wins by KO 1% · Sub 4% · Decision 40%

Ismail Naurdiev

25-8 · 30

Kalshi
57¢
Ours
55¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 14% · Sub 2% · Decision 39%

The call. Lean Vettori YES at 44¢, small. The bigger read is the decision.

Goes the distance 79% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Marvin Vettori

19-10-1 · 33 years old · 74" reach · southpaw

Kalshi ask44¢

Our number45¢

VerdictLeancheap by 1¢

How Vettori wins, in our number

KO/TKO 1%Submission 4%Decision 40%

Career wins: 2 KO/TKO, 9 submission, 8 decision

Where Vettori is dangerous

  • Durability and pace: never finished in 30 pro fights, landing 4.74 per minute.
  • Southpaw volume boxing: out-landed Brunno Ferreira 88-77 and Roman Dolidze 106-71 (UFCStats).
  • Submission base: 9 submission wins.

How Vettori loses. On the cards: four straight decision losses, with little finishing power (2 KO wins) to take the judges out of it.

Last three L DEC (Ferreira), L DEC (Allen), L DEC (Dolidze)

Ismail Naurdiev

25-8 · 30 years old · 74" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask57¢

Our number55¢

VerdictPasspricey by 2¢

How Naurdiev wins, in our number

KO/TKO 14%Submission 2%Decision 39%

Career wins: 13 KO/TKO, 6 submission, 6 decision

Where Naurdiev is dangerous

  • Efficient striking: 52% on target while absorbing only 1.75 per minute (UFCStats).
  • Power: 13 KO/TKO wins, including a knockout of Ryan Loder in 86 seconds.
  • Two-way wrestling: three takedowns against Bruno Silva and 73% takedown defense.

How Naurdiev loses. Grapplers over three rounds: decision losses to JunYong Park and Sean Brady, and finished four times outside the UFC.

Last three W KO1 (Loder), L DEC (Park), W DEC (B. Silva)

Goes the distance
79%
Ends early
21%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Vettori +114 · Naurdiev -135

The crowd says 56.5% Naurdiev, and DraftKings at -135 says 55%. We have Naurdiev 55¢ and Vettori 45¢, so Vettori at 44¢ is cheap by 1¢. A lean at most. Vettori has lost four straight, all on the cards, but look at the names: Cannonier, Dolidze, Allen and Brunno Ferreira. He out-landed Ferreira 88-77 in the last one and has never been finished in 30 pro fights. Naurdiev is efficient, with 52% on target and 1.75 absorbed per minute, and he hits hard with 13 KO/TKO wins. His UFC losses came against grapplers on the scorecards. Vettori has 9 submission wins, though only two takedowns across his last four fights. Flags on both: Vettori's broken rib pushed this fight back from June, and he moved camps back to Kings MMA. Naurdiev hasn't fought in about 10 months either. We make a decision about 79% likely. Small lean on the durable man.

The number that matters. Vettori: 0 finish losses in 30 pro fights (Sherdog).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (6)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. Sherdog, Vettori rib injury
  4. Sherdog, Vettori camp change
  5. Yahoo Sports, Naurdiev KO of Loder
  6. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]

Early prelims · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead

Jacobe Smith

12-0 · 30

Kalshi
89¢
Ours
89¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 42% · Sub 17% · Decision 30%

Bruce Whitehead

8-2 · 29

Kalshi
12¢
Ours
11¢
Call
Pass

Wins by KO 4% · Sub 4% · Decision 3%

The call. Pass. Smith should win; the price already says so.

Goes the distance 33% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Jacobe Smith

12-0 · 30 years old · 72" reach · southpaw

Kalshi ask89¢

Our number89¢

VerdictPassat our number

How Smith wins, in our number

KO/TKO 42%Submission 17%Decision 30%

Career wins: 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision

Where Smith is dangerous

  • Elite wrestling: 7.78 takedowns per 15 at 91%, with seven against Christien Savoie (UFCStats); NCAA D-I All-American at Oklahoma State.
  • Ground strikes and chokes from top: TKO by elbows of Savoie and a rear-naked choke of Niko Price in round 2.
  • Standing power: KO'd Preston Parsons in 1:13.

How Smith loses. Getting hit: 47% strike defense (Price landed 34 significant strikes), and no UFC fight past round 2.

Last three W KO1 (Harrell), W SUB2 (Price), W KO1 (Parsons)

Bruce Whitehead

8-2 · 29 years old · switch

Kalshi ask12¢

Our number11¢

VerdictPasspricey by 1¢

How Whitehead wins, in our number

KO/TKO 4%Submission 4%Decision 3%

Career wins: 2 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 3 decision

Where Whitehead is dangerous

  • Fast starts: four of his last five wins ended in round 1, the latest a 48-second TKO on Sept. 20.
  • Submissions: a ninja choke in 26 seconds and a kimura (Sherdog).
  • Knees in the clinch from a switch stance (the Abouzalam finish).

How Whitehead loses. Stoppages: both losses were finishes, a round 1 knee KO and a technical rear-naked choke.

Last three W TKO1 (Abouzalam), W DEC (McLoughlin), L KO1 (Valenzuela)

Goes the distance
33%
Ends early
67%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
Smith n/a · Whitehead n/a

The crowd says 88.5% Smith. There is no DraftKings line; RotoWire's unnamed book has -950, about 87% after the vig. We have 89¢, a pass both ways. This is a wrestling mismatch. Smith was an NCAA D-I All-American at Oklahoma State and lands 7.78 takedowns per 15 at 91%, and every UFC win of his is a finish. Whitehead is a short-notice debut, 13 days after a 48-second TKO at Fury FC 124, and both of his losses were stoppages. The common opponent says the rest: Smith KO'd Jared McLoughlin in 21 seconds, and Whitehead needed 15 minutes to beat him. The only doubts on Smith are his 47% strike defense and that he has never gone past round 2 in the UFC. He also switched opponents on nine days' notice. At 89¢ there's nothing left to buy, and Whitehead at 12¢ is a long shot priced about right.

The number that matters. Smith 7.78 takedowns per 15 at 91% on target (UFCStats).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (5)
  1. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  2. FloWrestling, Smith's wrestling background
  3. Yahoo Sports / MMA Mania, Smith booking
  4. MMA Sucka, bout booked
  5. UFC.com event page (bout order, read 2026-09-30)

Early prelims · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Court McGee vs Eric Nolan

Court McGee

23-14 · 41

Kalshi
30¢
Ours
35¢
Call
Buy

Wins by KO 3% · Sub 9% · Decision 23%

Eric Nolan

8-5 · 29

Kalshi
71¢
Ours
65¢
Call
Pricey

Wins by KO 30% · Sub 3% · Decision 32%

The call. Buy McGee YES at 30¢; fair is 35¢. The price is paying you for Nolan's wrestling holes.

Goes the distance 55% · if it ends early, most likely in round 1

The full breakdownHow each one wins and loses, where they’re dangerous, the payout calculator and the sources

Court McGee

23-14 · 41 years old · 75" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask30¢

Our number35¢

VerdictBuycheap by 5¢

How McGee wins, in our number

KO/TKO 3%Submission 9%Decision 23%

Career wins: 5 KO/TKO, 6 submission, 11 decision

Where McGee is dangerous

  • Back takes and chokes: a round 1 rear-naked choke of Tim Means at UFC 307, in Salt Lake City (UFCStats).
  • Pace and volume: 4.50 landed per minute; out-landed Alex Morono 60-38.
  • Home cage: 10-1 in Utah and 2-0 at UFC events there (Sherdog News).

How McGee loses. The chin at 41: KO'd in round 1 by Jeremiah Wells (2022) and Matt Brown (2023).

Last three L DEC (Chiesa), W SUB1 (Means), L DEC (Morono)

Eric Nolan

8-5 · 29 years old · 74" reach · orthodox

Kalshi ask71¢

Our number65¢

VerdictPriceypricey by 6¢

How Nolan wins, in our number

KO/TKO 30%Submission 3%Decision 32%

Career wins: 4 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision

Where Nolan is dangerous

  • One-punch power: three straight single-punch KOs in CFFC before the UFC (Sherdog).
  • Counter left hook behind a teep and outside leg kicks (Cageside Press).

How Nolan loses. On his back: Farman Hasanov took him down 17 times, and he has been choked out from the back twice.

Last three L DEC (Hasanov), L SUB2 (Susurkaev), W KO1 (Richards)

Goes the distance
55%
Ends early
45%
Likeliest finish
Round 1
Sportsbook
McGee +195 · Nolan -238

The crowd says 70.5% Nolan, and DraftKings at -238 says 67.5%. We have McGee at 35¢, so McGee at 30¢ is cheap by 5¢. A buy. Nolan is 0-2 in the UFC, lands 1.68 significant strikes a minute at 34%, and has 44% takedown defense. Farman Hasanov took him down 17 times in June, and he has been choked out from the back twice. McGee's route is the wrestle and the back: 1.78 takedowns per 15 and a round 1 rear-naked choke of Tim Means in this same city in 2024. He is 10-1 in Utah, and judging research shows a home crowd tilts close rounds. The risks are real. McGee is 41, 1-4 in his last five, 15 months out, and was knocked out in round 1 in 2022 and 2023. Nolan's one-punch power is how this goes wrong. At 30¢, the retirement fight is the best price on the card.

The number that matters. Nolan: 17 takedowns conceded to Hasanov, 44% takedown defense, 1.68 strikes landed per minute (UFCStats).

If you bought it now

Fees not counted* · A draw or no contest pays 50¢ a side on this market.

Sources for this fight (9)
  1. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  2. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  3. UFCStats, Nolan vs Hasanov fight page
  4. Sherdog News, McGee's final fight and Utah record
  5. Cageside Press, Welcome to the UFC: Eric Nolan
  6. Holmes, McHale & Zychaluk 2024, EJOR (home-crowd judging bias) [R02 S25]
  7. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  8. Fightnomics, Age and Knockouts in MMA [R02 S43]
  9. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]

Convert UFC 332 odds to Kalshi prices

Type the sportsbook line from any fight above and see the Kalshi price it matches. −205 on Silva is about 67%, a 67¢ contract; Kalshi asks 66¢.

Odds converterType in any box
Convert between American odds, decimal odds, implied chance and Kalshi price

−205 is about 67.2%, a 67¢ contract.

This converts the price, not the value. A sportsbook’s two sides add to more than 100% because the margin is built in; a Kalshi price leaves out the fee, which is charged on each trade.

How we score a fight

Start from the market. For each fighter we average two prices: Kalshi’s mid (halfway between the bid and the ask) and the DraftKings moneyline with the book’s margin taken out. Where DraftKings had no line, Kalshi stands alone.

Then adjust for what the price may not have weighed. Age, a long layoff, a move between divisions, takedown defense against a wrestler, a first fight past round three, a UFC debut against regional opposition, and Salt Lake City’s altitude of about 1,300 m, treated as a small cardio cost. Adjustments stay within 8 points of the market unless there is a strong, named reason. None on this card needed more than 5.1.

The buy rule. A fighter is a buy only when our number is at least 4¢ over Kalshi’s ask, because the fee and the spread eat a smaller gap. 1¢ to 3¢ over is a lean; 3¢ or more under is pricey.

Method of victory. Each fighter’s win number is split into KO/TKO, submission and decision from how they have won, how their opponent has lost, and how often the division finishes fights. The bars on each fight show that split. The UFC hub’s method and round guide explains the markets behind it.

UFC 332 questions

When and where is UFC 332?

Saturday, October 3, 2026, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The early prelims start at 1:00 PM PT on Paramount+ and UFC Fight Pass, the prelims at 3:00 PM PT on Paramount+, and the main card at 5:00 PM PT on CBS and Paramount+.

Who is fighting in the UFC 332 main event?

Natália Silva and Wang Cong, for the vacant UFC women's flyweight title over five rounds. Valentina Shevchenko withdrew with an injury and vacated the belt, and Wang replaced her.

What are the Kalshi odds for Silva vs Wang?

At 3:54 AM PT on September 30, Kalshi's ask was 66 cents on Silva and 35 cents on Wang, which reads as the crowd giving Silva about 66%. DraftKings had Silva -205 and Wang +170. Our number is 68 cents on Silva, a lean rather than a buy.

Will Silva vs Wang go the distance?

We make a decision 77% likely. Bet365's goes-the-distance price of -245 implies about 67% once the book's margin is taken out. Silva's last five wins all went to the cards, and Wang has never fought past round three.

What are the best bets on UFC 332?

By our numbers, the two buys are Court McGee at 30 cents (we make him 35) and Khaos Williams at 29 cents (we make him 33). Mick Parkin, Alexander Hernandez and Alden Coria are leans. The biggest trap is Eric Nolan at 71 cents, where we make him 65.

What happens to a UFC 332 contract if a fight is a draw or is cancelled?

Kalshi's fight-winner rules settle a draw or no contest 50/50 for both fighters. If a fight is postponed it stays open for up to two weeks; if it is cancelled or moved further out, the market settles at a fair price under Kalshi's rules.

How does PM Countdown score a UFC fight?

We average Kalshi's mid price with the DraftKings line after removing the book's margin, then adjust for named factors such as age, layoffs, weight-class moves and takedown defense. A fighter is a buy only when our number is at least 4 cents over Kalshi's ask.

Sources

Kalshi prices are its public fight-winner markets (series KXUFCFIGHT), read at 3:54 AM PT on September 30, 2026. Sportsbook lines are DraftKings as printed by CBS Sports and Yahoo Sports on September 28 and 29; the main-event props are Bet365’s via Yahoo Sports. Fair prices, method splits and calls are ours. Each fight lists its own sources under it; the full list is below.

Every source (66)
  1. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 full card and odds (DraftKings 2026-09-29)
  2. Yahoo Sports, Bet365 props and method odds (2026-09-29)
  3. UFC.com athlete page, Natália Silva
  4. UFC.com athlete page, Wang Cong
  5. UFC.com coach conversation (Eddie Barraco)
  6. UFC.com title journey piece
  7. Cageside Press, UFC 324 Silva vs Namajunas
  8. Cageside Press, UFC 329 Wang vs Cortez
  9. Wikipedia, Wang Cong (weight misses, catchweights)
  10. Wehrlin & Hallen 2006, VO2max falls about 6.3% per 1,000 m (lab physiology, anecdotal in MMA) [R02 S40]
  11. Miller & Nichols 2026, Journal of Economics and Finance (youth and travel underpriced) [R02 S30]
  12. GrapplerHQ UFC finish rates 1994-2026 [R02 S52]
  13. Sherdog, Talbott a massive favorite (DraftKings/Bovada lines)
  14. RotoWire UFC 332 DFS preview (2026-09-29)
  15. Sherdog, Song taps Figueiredo at UFC Macau
  16. Cageside Press, Talbott vs Cejudo UFC 323
  17. Sherdog, Barcelos manhandles Talbott UFC 311
  18. Wikipedia, Payton Talbott
  19. Fightnomics, Age and Knockouts in MMA [R02 S43]
  20. Fight Matrix, Inactivity: Does Age Matter?, 2026-07-22 [R02 S13]
  21. CBS Sports, Green KOs McKinney UFC 329
  22. CBS Sports, Ruffy KOs Green UFC 313
  23. Cageside Press, Ribovics finishes Barboza UFC 330
  24. MiddleEasy, bout booking
  25. Sherdog, Ribovics
  26. Sherdog, Roberto Soldić record
  27. Yahoo Sports, Soldić on his layoff
  28. Cageside Press, Williams TKOs Veretennikov
  29. MMA Junkie via Yahoo, UFC in 2025 stats (debutants 50-44) [R02 S56]
  30. Cageside Press, Gautier KOs Diaz UFC 328
  31. UFC.com event page (odds, book not named)
  32. UFC.com fight-by-fight preview
  33. Kirk 2023, age/stature/armspan in MMA [R02 S42]
  34. CBS Sports, UFC 332 card and DraftKings odds (2026-09-28)
  35. Sherdog, Preview UFC 332 prelims
  36. Cageside Press, Rodriguez vs Borjas
  37. Cageside Press, Coria vs Nicoll
  38. Press Democrat, Rodriguez's coach
  39. UFC.com, Coria wants a bigger splash
  40. Fight Matrix, Finish Rates by Weight Class, 2026-07-31 [R02 S53]
  41. Yahoo Sports, UFC 332 prelims preview
  42. Sherdog, Pederneiras on Pinas
  43. Cageside Press, Gautier beats Pulyaev
  44. Cageside Press, Ruziboev submits Pulyaev
  45. Cageside Press, McGhee vs Yannis
  46. Cageside Press, Sopaj submits Cuamba
  47. Wikipedia, Anthony Wint
  48. Sherdog highlight, Wint smothers Chatman
  49. ESPN athlete API (weights)
  50. Sherdog, Lucas Armand
  51. MMA Sucka, Walker on his 205 cuts
  52. LowKick MMA, Walker heavyweight debut
  53. Wikipedia, Mick Parkin
  54. Bloody Elbow, changing weight classes, 2015-08-05 [R02 S1]
  55. MiddleEasy, dos Anjos knee surgeries
  56. Cageside Press, Garcia dominates Hernandez
  57. Sherdog, Vettori rib injury
  58. Sherdog, Vettori camp change
  59. Yahoo Sports, Naurdiev KO of Loder
  60. FloWrestling, Smith's wrestling background
  61. Yahoo Sports / MMA Mania, Smith booking
  62. MMA Sucka, bout booked
  63. UFCStats, Nolan vs Hasanov fight page
  64. Sherdog News, McGee's final fight and Utah record
  65. Cageside Press, Welcome to the UFC: Eric Nolan
  66. Holmes, McHale & Zychaluk 2024, EJOR (home-crowd judging bias) [R02 S25]

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