Mateer and Oklahoma Face No. 1 Texas Without Fasusi Simmons and Manning Wait in Dallas

Texas vs Oklahoma at a glance

No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) plays Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1 SEC) in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at 3:30 PM ET (12:30 PM PT) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, on ABC. Arch Manning starts for Texas; John Mateer starts for Oklahoma behind a line that is likely without left tackle Michael Fasusi, against a Texas rush led by Colin Simmons. DraftKings has Texas by 9.5 with a total of 41.5. Texas won the last two meetings, 34-3 and 23-6.

Kickoff and TV

Saturday, Oct. 10, 3:30 PM ET, 12:30 PM PT (2:30 PM CT). ABC.

Stadium

Cotton Bowl, Dallas, a neutral site at the State Fair of Texas. Natural grass. The Dallas Morning News forecast (Oct. 8): mid-80s at kickoff, gusts to 10 mph, no rain mentioned.

Quarterbacks

Confirmed Arch Manning for Texas: 862 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT. Expected John Mateer for Oklahoma, not on the availability report: 883 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT, with six turnovers in his last three games.

The line

Texas −9.5, total 41.5, moneyline Texas −410 and Oklahoma +320 (DraftKings via ESPN, read Oct. 9, 12:30 AM PT). It opened Texas −6 with a total of 48.5. Kalshi had Texas at 74¢ bid, 75¢ ask, read 11:55 PM PT Thursday.

Doubtful or out

Doubtful Oklahoma LT Michael Fasusi (shoulder, no snaps since Week 1), OL Fred Hinton, TE Trynae Washington. Out Oklahoma WR Trell Harris, RB Xavier Robinson, CB Jacobe Johnson. Doubtful Texas DT Justus Terry, WR Kaliq Lockett. Out Texas OL Jordan Coleman.

The matchup that decides it

Simmons and a Texas defense with 15 sacks against an Oklahoma line PFF ranks 120th of 138 in pass blocking, without its starting left tackle.

The storylines

No. 1, with an offense still finding itself

Texas has scored 24, 30 and 20 in its last three games and ran for 61 yards at Tennessee (NBC Sports). It has also won close: 24-23 over Ohio State from 23-3 down entering the fourth, then 20-17 in Knoxville. Steve Sarkisian afterward: “We win big games around here, we do.” (AP)

Mateer kept the job, barely

Brent Venables said benching Mateer was discussed at halftime of the 41-13 loss at Georgia (News9), where Oklahoma turned it over four times and went 2 of 14 on third down.

Oklahoma’s line is the soft spot

PFF ranks it 120th of 138 in pass blocking, Venables called its development “very disappointing,” and Fasusi has not played since Week 1. Ryan Fodje is the likely starter at left tackle.

Two defenses that travel

Texas ranks first and Oklahoma third in opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play; Oklahoma’s offense is 91st (SI). Both teams are 3-1 to the under (NBC Sports).

Sources: AP, NBC Sports, News9, SI, Stormin’ in Norman.

Texas vs Oklahoma injury report

The SEC availability report, first released Wednesday, Oct. 7 (via 247Sports, On3 and Orangebloods, read Oct. 9). Updated reports come Thursday, Friday and before kickoff.

How Texas and Oklahoma got here

Texas: 4-0, then a bye

Beat Texas State 59-7 (Manning 305 yards, 4 TD), No. 1 Ohio State 24-23, UTSA 30-6 and No. 14 Tennessee 20-17. At Tennessee Simmons had five sacks (AP), the team had 10, and Manning was sacked six times.

Oklahoma: 2-2, then a bye

Beat UTEP 51-0 and New Mexico 14-6, lost 17-10 at Michigan and 41-13 at No. 2 Georgia. It has scored 14 or fewer and gained under 300 yards in each of its last three games (NBC Sports).

The last six meetings: Oklahoma 53-45 in four overtimes (2020), Oklahoma 55-48 (2021), Texas 49-0 (2022), Oklahoma 34-30 (2023), Texas 34-3 (2024), Texas 23-6 (2025). Texas leads the series 65-51-5.

Where Texas vs Oklahoma gets decided

Simmons against Oklahoma’s left side

Texas has 15 sacks, fourth in FBS, and Simmons has 7.5 of them (NBC Sports). Oklahoma has allowed nine.

Why it matters: Mateer was sacked five times in last year’s 23-6 loss, and his left tackle is likely out.

Mateer’s ball security

Six turnovers in three games, and three interceptions against Texas last year.

Why it matters: an Oklahoma offense that has scored 14 or fewer three times cannot hand Texas short fields.

Oklahoma’s run game

99.0 rushing yards a game, 131st, at 2.9 a carry (CBS), with Xavier Robinson out. Texas allows 99.3.

Why it matters: no run game means long third downs against the best rush Oklahoma will see.

Manning against a pass defense allowing 122.5 yards

Oklahoma is fourth in pass defense and allows 23.1% on third down, third in the country.

Why it matters: Texas went 3 of 12 on third down at Tennessee; this is where Oklahoma can keep it close.

Texas penalties

11 for 115 yards at Tennessee.

Why it matters: with a total of 41.5, one extended drive swings the margin.

Kalshi against the books

Kalshi had Texas at 74¢ to sell and 75¢ to buy at 11:55 PM PT Thursday: the market thinks Texas wins about three times in four. DraftKings’ moneyline, Texas −410 and Oklahoma +320, works out to about 77% for Texas once the bookmaker’s margin comes out. On Oct. 5 and 6 it was about 73%. The books moved toward Texas this week; Kalshi sits between the two reads.

The spread opened Texas −6 and is now −9.5. The total opened 48.5, fell to 39.5 and is 41.5. Both say the same thing: a low-scoring game Texas controls, with Oklahoma needing turnovers to win. Fasusi’s final status is the news most likely to move the price before kickoff.