Solana prediction markets

What the SOL 15-minute contract asks

Not where Solana is going. When the window opens, Kalshi fixes a target from its settlement index; fifteen minutes later it reads the index again, and if the closing value is at least the target the contract resolves yes, paying $1. Every 15-minute crypto market we have read types the comparison as at-or-above, so a window that ends dead flat resolves yes rather than no. The mechanics shared by every coin are written up once on the crypto hub; this page keeps to what is specific to SOL.

What is verified, and what is not

Verified: the series exists, Kalshi lists it at a fifteen-minute frequency, and a window was open on 2026-09-19. Not yet verified from a SOL market object: the declared decimal count of the target (round_digits) and the exact name of the settlement index. We would rather leave two fields blank than fill them from another coin. The desk does not need them to run: it reads the target’s decimals off each market as it opens, and prints whatever Kalshi declares.

A mid-priced coin reads differently

Solana trades in the low hundreds of dollars, between the two extremes on this site. A Bitcoin gap is a large dollar figure on a price in the tens of thousands; an XRP gap is a fraction of a cent on a price near a dollar. On SOL, one tenth of a percent is a few tens of cents, so the panel’s numbers read naturally at two decimals. Judge the gap in percent all the same: only the scale changes between coins.

When the windows open and close

Every quarter hour: on the hour and at :15, :30 and :45, around the clock. SOL has no clock of its own. Every crypto event we fetched on 2026-09-20 closed on the same quarter hour, so the Solana window and the Bitcoin window expire in the same instant.

What settles it

A CF Benchmarks real-time index for SOL, the settlement source Kalshi names for the series, not the last trade on any one exchange. Our chart draws Coinbase SOL-USD candles, and Coinbase is one of the exchanges feeding CF Benchmarks’ indexes, so the two track closely without being the same number. Read the target off Kalshi; an index average is not a last print.

What we have not measured

We hold no volume or open-interest figure for a SOL window, so neither this page nor the desk prints one. When we read one, it will carry its field name and its date, the way the XRP hub shows a single window’s volume_fp. Until then the depth of this market is unknown, which is different from thin.

There is no Solana hourly desk

We run a Bitcoin hourly desk and no Solana one. Kalshi’s series listing shows hourly-shaped SOL series, but we have not watched one trade, and we do not build a page for a contract we have not seen.