Toronto Maple Leafs3
Vegas Golden Knights4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | SO | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| VGKVegas Golden Knights | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas · 15,977 fans · Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM PT
Tuna’s live ticket
+$224.40
Vegas to win at 3‑3, on $250.75
Vegas on Kalshi
62¢ to 14¢
the start to 3-0 Toronto
Closing line
VGK −170
DraftKings; Leafs +142
Puck line
TOR +1.5
Vegas won by 1 in a shootout
Shots
43 to 24
Vegas; Bobrovsky stopped 40
NHL · Thu, Oct 8 · Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights
Matthews brings the Maple Leafs to Vegas to face Eichel and the Golden Knights
Vegas opened the night a −170 home favorite, 62¢ to win on Kalshi. Toronto scored three times in the first 8:37 and Vegas fell to 14¢. Then the Golden Knights scored three straight, regulation ended 3-3, and in the break before overtime Exclusive Tuna bought Vegas to win at 52.77¢. Here are the lines, the price path and the ticket.
Exclusive TunaLead writerPublished · Graded from Kalshi’s settlement and ESPN’s final box score
After the shootout: every goal and the price around it, all ten shootout attempts and ESPN’s box score. See the result
The odds before the puck dropped
| Market | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| To win, open | +136 | −162 |
| To win, close | +142 | −170 |
| Puck line, close | +1.5 (−180) | −1.5 (+150) |
| Total 6.5, close | Over −125 | Under +105 |
The money leaned to Vegas through the day: −162 at the open, −170 at the close, and the over moved from +100 to −125. Kalshi had Vegas to win at 62¢ for the whole hour before the 7:00 PM PT start, close to the sportsbook price. Vegas had won its last two; it left the night 4-1-0, Toronto 2-2-1.
The players this game ran through
- Jack Eichel stretched his assist and point streaks to five games and has three goals and 12 points through five: an assist on Stone’s goal and the tying goal on a penalty shot. He played 26:38, the most of any Vegas skater, with six shots.
- Auston Matthews set up Jack Roslovic’s goal 34 seconds in, Roslovic’s 300th career point in his 600th game. Matthews played 21:32 and was stopped by Adin Hill in the second round of the shootout.
- Mitch Marner, in a Vegas sweater against Toronto, assisted on Brett Howden’s deflection 1:12 into the second, the goal that made it 3-2. He had five shots in 24:10.
- Sergei Bobrovsky faced 43 shots and stopped 40. Adin Hill gave up three in the first 8:37 and none after in regulation or overtime: 21 saves on 24, then four stops in five shootout attempts.
- Gavin McKenna had an assist on Nick Paul’s goal for 3-0, and Trevor Connelly, a Vegas rookie, scored the only goal of the shootout’s last four rounds.
The ticket, bought at 3-3
-
Live bet, WinNHL · Thu, Oct 8Exclusive TunaWriter
YES Vegas Golden Knights
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights
- Entry
- 53¢
- Target
- $1.00
- Fallback
- N/A
+$224.40 on $250.75 (+89.5%) · live bet, End of regulation, before overtime, TOR 3, VGK 3
Placed Oct 8, 9:45 PM PT, after the start · graded Oct 9, 4:30 PM PT from Kalshi's settlement
Winner · paid in full at $1.00
Held to settlement at 100¢
Taken in playtaken in play, 2 hours 45 minutes after the start
A Kalshi position, bought in play after regulation ended tied: $250.75 for 475.15 contracts of Vegas to win at a 52.77¢ average. It pays $1.00 a contract on a Vegas win in overtime or the shootout.
The price path, from 62¢ to 14¢ and back
Roslovic scored at 7:10 PM PT and Vegas to win fell from 62¢ to 47¢. Easton Cowan’s breakaway made it 33¢, and after Nick Paul’s slap shot for 3-0 Vegas bottomed at 14¢. Mark Stone’s goal at 17:36 of the first put it back to 27¢.
The second period did the rest. Howden made it 3-2 and Vegas traded at 45¢; Eichel’s penalty shot tied it at 8:11 PM PT and Vegas ran to 70¢, then sat mostly between 57¢ and 60¢ through a scoreless rest of the second and third. As overtime got closer the price drifted toward a coin flip: 53¢ at the end of regulation, a 50¢ low in overtime.
That is the spot Tuna bought: the home team that had just erased a three-goal lead, priced barely above even money for three on three and a shootout. Kalshi traded 1,822,701 Vegas to win contracts from the opening faceoff to settlement.
Questions people ask
Who won Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights on Oct 8, 2026?
The Vegas Golden Knights won 4-3 in a shootout at T-Mobile Arena. Toronto led 3-0 in the first period on goals by Jack Roslovic, Easton Cowan and Nick Paul. Mark Stone, Brett Howden and Jack Eichel, on a penalty shot, tied it by 3:58 of the second. Trevor Connelly scored the shootout winner in the fifth round.
What were the odds for Maple Leafs at Golden Knights?
Vegas closed at -170 to win at DraftKings (opened -162), with Toronto at +142. The puck line was Vegas -1.5 at +150 and the total 6.5, over -125. On Kalshi, Vegas to win was 62 cents at the 7:00 PM PT start.
Does a Kalshi NHL game market count overtime and the shootout?
Yes. The Vegas to win contract paid on the final result, and the final was a shootout win. It traded at 34 cents during the shootout and settled at $1.00 after Connelly scored and Adin Hill stopped John Tavares.
What did Exclusive Tuna buy on this game?
Vegas to win, live, after regulation ended 3-3: $250.75 for 475.15 contracts at a 52.77 cent average. Vegas won the shootout and the ticket paid $475.15, a profit of $224.40 (+89.5%).
How low did Vegas trade on Kalshi?
14 cents, with Toronto up 3-0 late in the first period. Mark Stone scored at 17:36 of the first and Vegas jumped back to 27 cents; after Eichel's penalty shot tied it, Vegas traded as high as 70 cents.
Trade the next one yourself
Open a Kalshi accountPM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi. All NHL markets · Every graded pick
Sources
- ESPN game summary, event 401892464: final score by period, every goal with ESPN’s logged time, the shootout, the box score, both goalies, the DraftKings open and close and the AP recap, read Fri, Oct 9, 4:10 PM PT. Kept as data/results/nhl-2026-10-08-tor-vgk-espn.json. Open the game on ESPN
- Kalshi public API, one-minute candles for Vegas to win, 7:00 to 10:01 PM PT Oct 8, read Fri, Oct 9. The market settled YES after the shootout. Kept as data/results/nhl-2026-10-08-tor-vgk-kalshi.json.
- Tuna’s Kalshi position card: Vegas Golden Knights, 52.7% chance, cost $250.75, paid out $475.15.
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