Watson and Goff 5 Leg Overs Parlay Packers at Lions, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 49.7¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.01x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 43.5%. I shave that to about 40.0%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 6: 28 of 28 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, three on Green Bay and two on Detroit. At the asks the five pay 2.01x.
• Watson twice. His catches and his yards both ride on the league’s most generous pass defense. He leads Green Bay with 538 receiving yards at 18.6 a catch, with 147 and 143 in two of his six games.
• Detroit through Goff and LaPorta. Green Bay’s pass defense is the tougher side of this game at 193.3 yards a game, 6th fewest, so the Detroit legs sit well under what both have done: Goff’s lowest game is 206, LaPorta’s is 44.
• What stayed off. Love’s passing yards, for his 145 in Week 2 and 197 in Week 4. Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing yards, for his 52 and 46. Matthew Golden’s yards, for his 21 in Week 4. Nothing on Green Bay’s run game: Josh Jacobs is expected back after missing six games, and Kalshi lists no line for him.

Where it can break

Green Bay’s pass defense. At 193.3 yards a game, 6th fewest, it faces both Detroit legs. A slow Goff day costs his 200 and LaPorta’s 25 together.

Watson carries two legs. He had exactly 3 catches in Weeks 4 and 6, on only 3 targets in Week 4. A quiet game for him costs both legs.

Jacobs changes the Packers’ plan. Green Bay runs for 59.8 yards a game, last in the league, so it has leaned on the pass. If Jacobs takes a full load in his first game back, Love throws less.

Love’s back. He was limited Wednesday and said the aim is to limit his hits in the pocket. He is off the final report, but one hard hit could change the night.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 11:55 AM PT. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Lions were 62¢ to sell and 63¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Detroit a 3-point favorite with a total of 53.5 on Saturday morning. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.