Young and Irving 5 Leg Overs Parlay Buccaneers at Panthers, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 48.0¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.08x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 40.5%. I shave that to about 37.2%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 6: 27 of 27 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, three on Carolina and two on Tampa Bay. At the asks the five pay 2.08x.
• Young twice. His yards and a touchdown pass both ride on the league’s top passing offense against a defense that allows 224.0 passing yards a game, 13th most, with Winfield out. Young has thrown for 281 or more with at least one touchdown pass in all five of his games.
• Both backs. Irving gets the softer draw: Carolina allows 132.2 rushing yards a game, 6th most. Hubbard gets the hardest, Tampa Bay at 75.5, 2nd fewest, but his carries have gone 10, 12, 19, 20 and 28, and his last two games were 122 and 120.
• Godwin with Egbuka out. Godwin is the one Tampa Bay receiver on the ticket, at 15 yards. He has 25 or more in all six games, with either quarterback.
• What stayed off. Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, for Week 3, when they caught 2 passes each for 17 and 18 yards. Cade Otton, for 1 catch and 4 yards in Week 6. Kalshi lists no Tampa Bay quarterback lines and nothing for Egbuka.

Where it can break

Hubbard against the 2nd-ranked run defense. Tampa Bay allows 75.5 rushing yards a game. His 49 and 53 in Weeks 1 and 2 came on 10 and 12 carries; a game where Carolina throws early could look like that.

Irving’s illness week. He missed Wednesday’s practice and was full by Friday. He ran for 45, 46 and 46 in three of his six games, five and six yards over 40.

Young carries two legs. One flat Panthers day costs the yards and the touchdown together. His low is 1 touchdown pass, in the Week 3 loss to Cleveland.

Who throws for Tampa Bay. Mayfield is questionable and expected to start after three games out. Godwin had 40, 46 and 25 with him and 31, 37 and 37 with Daniels, but a quarterback back from a thumb injury is a new rhythm.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Panthers were 59¢ to sell and 60¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Carolina a 3-point favorite with a total of 44.5 on Thursday. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.